Financial Winners

There are many ways to measure a happy and successful life – and financial security is just a part of this. Benjamin Franklin best sums it up

“Content makes Poor Men Rich; Discontent makes Rich Men Poor.”

To be grateful and happy with our many blessings is a good place to start – But, to be financially secure is one of the three tenements of a happy life. My Dad did give me the great advice …

“The only time that you use borrowed money is for the purchase of appreciating assets.”

This meant I would avoid the crippling credit card interest by paying off my credit card balance every month (Admittedly, there were a few slip-ups!) and, most importantly, if I wanted a car or holiday, I would have to save up for it first – and pay cash before the glorious enjoyment of my purchase.

However, (hopefully) appreciating assets like property or shares were given the big tick by my Dad – and it was OK to borrow money for them. I suppose my Dad would have made an exception to the rule if you were investing in yourself. Spending borrowed money on things like education or, if you are just starting out, tools, a work ute, or office equipment – can be justified.

This makes Slack Investor a bit of an outlier in the community considering the amount that the average Australian owes on credit cards. ASIC has a Debt Clock and they point out that there is around $32 billion owing on Australian credit cards, that’s an average of around $4,300 per card holder!

There are some basic rules for getting ahead financially and Noel Whittaker points out the differences between winners and losers in the financial game.

“The winners borrow at low rates of interest, subsidised by the Tax Office, to buy growth assets such as property and shares that increase in value over time. The losers borrow at high rates of interest, non tax-deductible, for consumer items such as cars that depreciate in value.”

You can argue about the fairness of negative gearing and capital gains concessions (I think rightly!) and superannuation concessions (Which have been recently reigned in) – but these are the existing rules.

If you start at a young age with just my Dad’s advice …  and only borrow to invest in, hopefully, appreciating assets – it will be a good start. My Dad was an understanding bloke and would appreciate that there were some cases where the rules need to be broken – i.e. suppose that you needed a car for your job – but he would insist that If I did borrow for a car that I would shop around an get the best loan deal … and hopefully, I would be able to pay it off early.

Slack Investor can’t guarantee financial security – but If you follow my Dad’s simple advice you will be on the right path to be a financial winner.

Volatility … Its Scarey! … Take a deep Breath!

The range of one year share investment returns over a 10-year period – From Fidelity

In the above data collected by Fidelity, it is sobering to look at the range of returns that a share investor can expect over a one year period. By setting stop losses, you can help protect yourself from the very worst of declines – but even with this protection, there will be some bad investment years. Lets look at the worst investment year for Australian Shares shown above (-40%). Even with stop losses, your portfolio might lose 10-25% due to prices rapidly falling before you can act. This is a major hit on your savings and during the 2008 GFC many experienced losses in their investment and superannuation savings that have turned them off share investment forever. This, in hindsight, has not been the best decision as cash returns have been relatively low and, up till June 2016, median balanced funds have improved 86% since this global financial crisis.

But volatility is not for everyone – You must be able to sleep at night!

This week, Slack Investor just had the shock of one of his stocks dropping in price by 37% on an earnings update.  Price swings like this on your hard-earned investment dollars are hard to take and the volatility of the stock market – particularly with individual companies – make share investment a difficult environment for many.

To Slack Investor this is was not great news and though I prefer to make my investment decisions at the end of each month, the price revision has triggered the “not very slack” procedure of a review of this stock. Are the companies earnings still forecast to grow? There is now a daily review of this stock – with a view to sell. The correction may be an over reaction … or just the start of more bad news.

The things that protect me in these moments are diversification and the fact that Slack Investor is a long term investor. There are always at least 20 stocks or managed funds in the Slack Portfolio.

Although at the time of buying, by doing a bit of research on past and future earnings, I am convinced that each individual company will be an enormous contributor to the retirement fund. However, I have been investing long enough to know that things don’t always pan out as forecast … and I have realized that it’s not necessary to get all your investment decisions right … just so long as you get a good portion of them right!

Investing can be tricky at times and during times of market volatility it is useful to take the long view. The 15-year extract above (Shown on a compressed Logarithmic scale)- from Fidelity – indicates what would happen to a $10 000 investment over 30 years in index funds in various markets. For Australian shares the average yearly return is 8.5% over 30 years – but there were some boom times over this time frame. Over a shorter period, Canstar reports a 10-year average return for the Australian Index of 5.5% compared to the, admittedly risk free, cash option of 3.1% over 10 years.

Particularly in these times of low bond and cash yields, if you can accept the volatility of the share market, be willing to live with the occasional investment mistake and have a diverse list of well-managed growing companies in your portfolio – take a deep breath and you will be OK!

 

2016 November Monthly Update

trend-1445464__180Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

There has been US elections, past and upcoming European elections and referendums, uncertainty with OPEC and the oil price … Cripes! Lucky we have the old stock proverb

“The market climbs a wall of worry … and slides down on the slope of hope”

What this means to Slack Investor is that sometimes you have to tune out the noise and rely on the fact that stock markets are a great place for the long term investor. According to Fidelity, over 30 years, average annual returns for Australian shares are 9.5% and for Global shares 7.1%.

In the US, for the world of commerce, there seems to be a feeling of optimism about the upcoming Trump presidency (For me it is a little weird … and alarming, putting those last two words together). I am naturally on alert when markets like the US are at an all time high. However, I have my monthly stop loss to protect me and we soldier on for ASX, US and UK-Index stocks. The UK and US are both well above the 10-month moving average (black line on the monthly charts) and of no immediate concern. The ASX index breached the stop loss early in November but as Slack Investor makes decision on the end of month prices – and they finished well above the stop loss (red line) – no action required. See the ASX, US and UK-Index pages for details.