August 2017 – End of Month Update … and Fund Returns FY2017

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

A steady month for all markets that I follow – Slack Investor stays on the couch and does nothing …

The Chant West media release  referred to in the previous monthly update has plenty of other useful information.

The above table quotes the median performance figures from various types of funds that Chant West monitors, ranging from All Growth to Conservative. As mentioned in a previous post, the 1-Yr column shows it has been a bumper year  for all types of funds – If you owned any growth fund during the last 7 years, you would be tremendously pleased with the 10% pa returns.

The GFC (Global Financial Crisis) of 2008 (and later years) continues to weigh down the ten year returns (4-5% for growth assets).

Over the last 25 years, Chant West found the returns of growth funds were a more reassuring 8.3%. It just drives home the devastating affect of a major downturn that an event like the GFC has on growth funds. The figures are, in the jargon of the industry,”net of investment fees and taxes” … but curiously before admin fees and advisor commissions … but this is another story!

The above graph compares the growth category median (rolling 5-year) with the average return objective for growth funds – CPI (Consumer Price Index) plus 3.5%. This is a typical target for growth funds. In an environment where cash returns are mostly below 2% there is risk involved with investing in growth assets.

I never ever ever thought I would be quoting the far-right (recently) former Trump employee on this site.

“My old firm, Goldman Sachs – traditionally, the best banks are leveraged 8:1. When we had the financial crisis in 2008, the investment banks were leveraged 35:1.”
― Steve Bannon, Media Executive and former Investment Banker source

However, “Breitbart Steve”, after the fact, your quote rings true … the signs are always there …  Excessive borrowings (leveraging) and a willingness for people to pay top dollar for overvalued assets are sure signs that trouble is coming.

Slack Investor is comfortable with risk and would always prefer growth funds – especially with a large time horizon – but I will never be able to avoid ordinary fluctuations (corrections) in the stock market. A disciplined approach to stop losses should keep me out of the huge falls that the GFC presented to owners of shares.

Although valuations are generally high, Slack Investor does not see a bubble in the Australian or UK Stock Markets for now – Unlike the US market, Australian and UK share valuations are not too far higher than long term averages – and there has never been a calamitous fall in stock values without a bubble first. Regardless, my stop losses will protect me from huge losses of capital.

I have updated all Index pages and charts to reflect the end of month data.