May 2019 – End of Month Update … and, that recession vibe

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.  In what the cool investor analyst types call a “Risk Off” month there were big falls in Slack Investor followed overseas markets (FTSE100 -3.5%;  S&P500 -6.6%) – but for the moment, still above the monthly stop losses. Checking out the US Yield Curve indicator at GuruFocus shows a negative result  (Just … -0.05% though!) so my monthly stop losses for Index funds are definitely “live”.

The Australian ASX200 had a positive month (+1.1%) – but this was due mainly to the election of a “business-friendly” government on May 18. General nervousness prevails though.

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). 

That Recession Vibe

Slack Investor is no great predictor of trends – But, whenever things are going well in the stock market, experienced investors naturally get skittish – Particularly when two belligerent world leaders are at loggerheads. There is a chance that all of this will get solved at the next G-20 in June. But Bloomberg analysts think it is more likely that the trade war will be long, messy—and expensive. Thanks Donald!

(The US economy is going OK) but … other countries remain sluggish or are slowing. Diminishing global growth could drag down the U.S. also. … although the Federal Reserve is now signaling a halt in its rate hiking, it has raised interest rates nine times since December 2015. At some point, those higher rates become the gravitational force that pulls down stock prices.

From Ray Martin at CBS News

All of this uncertainty is talked about constantly in the media and with trade war stuff thrown in as well, as all fans of The Castle know … ” It’s the Vibe!”, When all of this negative stuff gets too much. for a quick recession-busting refresher, try this Youtube highlights clip from the film.

Slack Investor has mentioned one of the pre-indicators of a recession, the US Bond Yield Curve, which has just gone into the “Red Zone”. The economist boffins have been very diligent at Citibank and have tracked a range of 18 economic statistics up to the end of April. The US Yield curve is just one of these and is #6 on the list. They compare current statistics with those from previous “proper” recessions.

Citi’s Bear Market Checklist (BMC) shows only 4 out of 18 red flags, and suggests that it is too early to call the end of this ten year bull market. In previous cycles, the BMC red flags have accumulated gradually before rising exponentially in the last year of the bull market. Citi analysts would be more concerned when 7-8 factors are flagging caution.

From Citi Insights

So Slack Investor does what he does best … and leaves the economics research to those who can do it well … business as usual. There are a couple of my individual stocks (CTD, CGC, PMC) that are on the slide and may need attention. I will look at their numbers and outlooks (and charts) again this week on Market Screener . But other than that, I will ease, ever so slowly, into the couch.