Month: October 2019

Portfolio Trim and Fitcats

From House Beautiful – May be subject to copyright

On the theme of a trim … who doesn’t like a bit of topiary. My portfolio has had a little haircut in the past 3 months as I have been thinking about the potential of a recession and the effect it might have on my investments. Lacking the skills of Nostradamus, Slack Investor has chosen the “middle path” for his individual stocks i.e . Between doing nothing and “selling everything”, I have chosen to fiddle with about 20% of the portfolio. Some of the things I have bought are expanded on below, in order of investment commitment. This is not advice, just a random walk through stock selection. To make room for the new purchases I sold a few high PE stocks and a few underperformers. The sold stocks include APX, CGC, PMC, AGL and CTD.

Alphabet -Google ( GOOGL)

This is new ground for Slack Investor as GOOGL is US based company and the investment has the additional complexity that I have to use an international broker (Saxo) to purchase shares on the NASDAQ exchange. But, I feel the extra effort is worth it as I can’t think of a better company to ride with through the next 10 years.

Google search has 92% global market share. Chrome is the world’s most widely used web browser. Android is the world’s most popular mobile operating system with 2 billion-plus active users. YouTube is watched for more than 1 billion hours a day. Alphabet has about US$100 billion in cash which, for a sense of scope, is larger than the combined market values of Telstra, Woolworths, and Macquarie.

Joe Magyer from Motley Fool on the dominance of Google’s Alphabet

I use Google products countless times a day and with a Return on Equity of 21 % and a reasonable Price Earnings ratio (for the growth tech sector!) of 24. I would like to own more of this and will seek to add to my position over time. The international shares thing is a bit of a hassle and has some extra expenses. A far easier, way to get a slice of Google (and other great tech growth companies) is by buying the Australian-listed NASDAQ ETF (NDQ). Alphabet represents 8.6% of the NASDAQ Index.

Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest ETF (VAF)

For ETF’s, I naturally lean towards Vanguard due to their relatively low fees and a commitment to keep them low (Thanks Jack Bogle!) I bought this ETF to try and derisk my shares portfolio by getting some exposure to the Australian Government Bond and Fixed Interest Market. I have also bought some Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VGE) and Vanguard Global Infrastructure (VBLD).

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

The lure of property rentals during tough times and a bit of exposure to Industrial Real Estate has brought me to this area. I was tossing up buying Goodman (GMG) or Centuria. Both have a similar Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) and occupancy rate. GMG has a relatively high 2020 PE of 26.1 compared with a CIP 2020 PE of 14.8. CIP also has a more fruity yield of 5.7%. Case Closed.

United Overseas Australia (UOS)

A Malaysian real estate developer … Steady on, this sounds a bit wacky! – UOS is a bit of a speculator for Slack Investor. Real estate is a place where I am underdone and I am alway convinced by good arguments. A respected investor (by me), Tony Hansen, from EGP Capital has this stock as his highest portfolio allocation. UOS has a solid cash position, a decent yield and the discount to net worth got me over the line. What is life without a little bit of risk!

Fitcats – Get your super runnin’

With apologies to the legendary Steppenwolf, Slack Investor has the news from Chris Brycki (the tireless CEO of Stockspot and author of the Fatcat/Fitcat report). He has produced his yearly assessment of the best super funds (Fit Cats) and the worst (Fat Cats). Fat Cat Super Funds on average charge 2% a year in fees, while, in comparison Fit Cat Super Funds charge less than 1% a year in fees. 

“One of our golden rules of superannuation is; the less you pay, the more you get. Always pay less than 1% p.a. in fees so your super isn’t eroded by high fees. I know 1% doesn’t sound like a lot, but for the Aussies stuck in these Fat Cat Funds they’ll be worse off by $200,000 or more compared to their friends who are in a low-fee fund,” 

Chris Brycki, Stockspot

So, if you haven’t already done so … get financially fit, grab yourself an account number in one of these top performers. Most will allow new customers. Then continue to get some Fit Cat action by asking your employer to make any future contributions to your new account. Then rollover your super to the new fund and your sweet.

September 2019 – End of Month Update … and Portfolio Trim

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.  The Slack Investor followed overseas markets have had a bit of a recovery this month ( ASX 200 +1.3%; FTSE100 +2.8%;  S&P500 +1.7%).

The Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland have the probability of recession within the next year at 37.9%. This exceeds the Slack Investor threshold of 20% and my monthly stop losses for Index funds are definitely “switched ON”

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). As it is the end of the quarter, the Slack Portfolio has been updated with some readjustment of the portfolio and a solid whack of cash (5.1%).

Trim the Sails … things might get rough

Trimming the Sails by Anton Otto Fischer – from Artnet

The economists at the Cleveland Fed are rating the chances of recession as significant. This is enough for Slack Investor to do a little portfolio trimming and try to dampen the effect on my capital if a recession does happen. I am a long way from going “all the way” and converting my entire share portfolio to cash-like products – though some pundits already have. There are a few reasons for this Slack approach

  • I am not a very good predictor of exactly when things might go bad
  • The returns for the safety of cash are not good at the moment, under 2%
  • I have a buffer of cash income that will help me weather through any economic downturn without having to sell any stocks at downtrodden prices – Those without a cash buffer or subject to sequencing risk should take a more prudent approach than Slack Investor.
  • Most of my stocks are producing reasonable dividends

Sequencing risk peaks in the seven or so years before and after retirement. Investors at this stage have a higher retirement balance and typically more of it invested in shares, meaning they have more to lose if sharemarkets tumble …

From an AFR article by Tony Featherstone

Sequencing risk refers to the possibility that a retiree that depends on his savings for income may have his capital (and future income) greatly reduced by a sequence of poor returning years (such as a recession!). The retiree would be in danger of having to draw down on capital at depressed prices.

A solution for retirees to the problem of sequencing risk is to set aside 2-3 years of income in cash assets that can be used for income while the underlying assets are waiting to recover. This strategy avoids a “fire sale of assets” during a recession.

Those younger folk still in the accumulation stage can hope that any future economic downturn does not affect the employment market too much – Jobs and income are a key to survival in tough times. As far as investments are concerned, the effects of a recession are only temporary and things will recover (see chart below). Downturns are a good time to start buying if you have any spare funds.

I am happy with my minimal trim approach as I generally invest in solid money earning companies that may suffer in earnings during a recession … but wont go broke and disappear.

For stock owners, recessions and economic downturns are only bad if you have to sell your stock before the inevitable recovery. In these trying times I am often comforted by long term share charts. Please note that any downturn is always followed by a recovery- though in some cases, it may take a few years.

This Long-term S&P chart for US stocks over 120 years (On a log scale). Periodic recessions are shown as grey columns – and the ability of stock prices to recover after any major world crisis is illustrated by the general increase in stock prices as you go forward in time. -From Business Insider Australia

My Slack trimming strategy has several components

  • Sell some of my stocks that have increased in price and now have extremely high PE Ratios – Although some, like Altium, are hard to let go. They are “old friends” and I am very sentimental to consistent company performance over many years.
  • Increase the weighting of my portfolio towards cash or bonds or fixed interest.
  • Try to be invested in companies may not suffer too much during an economic downturn i.e. Healthcare, Essential products.
  • Re-focus on dividends – the dividends might reduce a little in a downturn but the income is important. Dividends have in the past been much less volatile than share prices.

I have not changed the core of my portfolio, just fiddled around with 20% of it. Some more detail on the portfolio trimming in the next post.