Month: May 2020

Hail to the Geeks

In honour of the upcoming International Geek Pride Day to be celebrated on 25 May.

Being a geek is cool (Just ask Bill Gates!). They have rights … the top 5 rights of a Geek are:

1. The right to be even geekier.

2. The right to not leave your house.

3. The right to not like football or any other sport.

4. The right to associate with other nerds.

5. The right to have few friends (or none at all).

During the past month. Slack Investor has certainly lived the geek lifestyle and he has reflected on the magnificent gift that geeks gave to the world – technology!

The NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) is a special US based electronic stock exchange that was created in 1971 and now lists over 3500, mostly tech, companies. The top 15 companies in the NASDAQ consist of the household names below.

NameWeight (%)
MICROSOFT CORP12%
APPLE INC12%
AMAZON.COM INC10%
FACEBOOK INC4%
ALPHABET INC4%
ALPHABET INC4%
INTEL CORP3%
NETFLIX INC2%
NVIDIA CORP2%
PEPSICO INC2%
CISCO SYSTEMS INC2%
ADOBE INC2%
PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC2%
COMCAST CORP2%
TESLA INC2%
The growth of the NASDAQ composite index since 1971 – Shown on a log scale – From Macrotrends

Despite a few downturns, mostly in recessions (shaded grey columns above), being invested in technology has really delivered. Betashares, an Australian company, offers simple exposure to the top 100 companies in the NASDAQ through NDQ, their Australian listed NASDAQ ETF. Slack Investor owns some US Listed shares directly and the hassle of different currencies, maintaining a US Broking account, and filling out US taxation forms make the NDQ ETF Management Expense Ratio (MER) of 0.48% seem reasonable. Morningstar also offers a Global technology ETF TECH. Good global technology access for a 0.45% management fee.

Weekly chart of Australian listed Betashares NDQ – Incredible Charts

The use of technology to connect people and develop new businesses has been well demonstrated during the COVID-19 crisis – these tech businesses are growing. Slack Investor has a big amount of technology stocks – over 35% of his Portfolio. NDQ has grown over 50% in the 18 months since the original Slack Investor buy.

One of the things that Slack Investor has learned over the decades is that a high PE is OK, providing that there is a lot of growth involved. Stamped on the little Slack Investor brain is that technology is becoming increasingly important in our lives – this sector is definitely growing.

The NASDAQ index usually has a relatively high average PE Ratio – but as of May 13 2020 it has slipped down to a very reasonable 20.55. There is also a decent trailing dividend yield of 1.73% – the dividend is showing an increasing trend.

This is not advice, as Slack Investor has no divine guidance on what will happen in the next 12 months. – but, with a 2-3 year time frame, will Slack Investor invest more into NDQ or TECH as funds become available? You bet your geekin’ life he will!

April 2020 – End of Month Update … The Real Cost of Early Super withdrawl

In relaxed lock down through the courtesy of COVID-19. But the stockmarkets never sleep.

The Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland have the probability of a US recession within the next year at 20.0% but there has been some optimism in the markets that there might be an eventual end to this wicked virus crisis. Rises in all followed markets ASX200 +8.8%, FTSE100 +4.0% and S&P500 +12.7%.

The rises in the UK and US have got Slack Investor back into the market with a change in momentum on the weekly charts signaling a re-entry. But it is with much trepidation – the rapid recovery seems to have been priced in a bit early!

Slack Investor has outlined in many posts about how to get out of trades with stop losses. But has been a bit lacking in detail on when to get back IN. When trend trading, my main tool for finding a buy signal is a trend following (or momentum) system called the Directional Movement Index. There are many ways of setting up this system. Slack Investor likes the “smoothing” that is enabled by a system that looks back over the previous 11 periods – but the complexities are best left for the Resources page.

UK Index weekly chart showing the weekly price ranges at the top and Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) patterns below – From Incredible Charts

I am quite comfortable with the re-entry into the UK Index shown above, but the rapid swings for the US charts have the Slack method back IN, but so far, performing worse than the “buy and hold” method. I will continue this index market timing experiment for another 4 years (to make it a 20-year trial).

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Super Withdrawal … should you?

“A Run On the bank” an etching from the 1930’s – from sutori.com

The Australian Government has gone into real governing mode and set up some measures to help people get through this COVID -19 crisis. They have established “JobKeeper” payments ($1500 per fortnight), doubled “JobSeeker” payments (up to $1100 per fortnight), and allowed the unemployed and people whose hours have been cut by 20 per cent to access up to $20000 of their super early. There are some rules.

Slack Investor understands that times are tough for the many who have lost their jobs, but is disturbed that 881,600 people had registered with the government for early superannuation access – and this could blow out to 1.5 million people. Unfortunately (particularly if you have credit card debt), this will be a necessary step for some. Slack investor implores those affected to exhaust all other options first – an early superannuation withdrawal does have repercussions further down the track.

Comparing potential withdrawal impacts at different ages

Investor’s current ageYears to retirementValue of $10,000 at retirementValue of $20,000 at retirement
670$10,000$20,000
5710$17,908$35,817
4720$32,071$64,143
3730$57,435$114,870
2740$102,857$205,714
Source: Vanguard calculations – These calculations show a significant projected eventual cost of super withdrawal. However, these raw figures do not allow for inflation. A projection allowing for inflation (2%) using the smartasset inflation calculator shows that the $10 000 withdrawal after 40 years will grow to a still significant $46578 in 2020 dollars ($102857 in 2060 dollars).

Slack Investor knows that accessing cash like this has consequences and that people should make an informed choice between their short term financial need and their long term financial position. 

There is also the effect on your insurance with the withdrawal of super … if you go to a zero balance, your super-related death and disability insurance will cease. Even if you return to work, it will not automatically reinstated until your account balance reaches $6000.

A real-life example from the Slack Investor chronicles. A long long time ago in 1982, a 25-year old Slack Investor wanted to travel overseas for the first time. Funds were a bit short and he had saved some money … but not enough for a whole year travelling. I had a superannuation balance of $3500 (This would be worth almost $10000 in 2020 dollars using the smartasset inflation calculator).

Back in those days, prior to compulsory super, you were allowed to cash your super in – and I stupidly did. To save up this kind on money would have taken another 3 months of saving and working – I chose the instant gratification.

Slack Investor is a great believer in the “tried and true” problem solving method of

  1. Research – Weigh up the pros and cons …
  2. Make a decision
  3. Move On … No Regrets – you have made the decision with the available facts.

However, the pulling out of my super when I was in my twenties is one of the few things that brings me just a tinge of regret.

The Hesta Retirement Balance Projection Calculator shows that my $3500 would have grown to nearly $31000 at my 62-year old retirement date (Assumptions: at 8% growth and 2% inflation). Slack Investor likes this calculator as it allows you to set assumptions that help account for inflation as well as growth.

Perhaps if I had just delayed my trip by a few months and worked a bit longer, I might have been able to retire just a little bit earlier. Ah well … we make our decisions and … such is life.

Be safe, be kind … and make an informed decision about releasing your super early.