Month: March 2022

Here comes the Sun … It’s alright

The Beatles at Tittenhurst Park, 1969 – From Rolling Stone

It has been 53 years since the Beatles) recorded “Here Comes the Sun” from their landmark Abbey Road Album. It has been 18 months since Slack Investor installed Solar Panels on his roof and is in complete agreement with George Harrison … This Sun, “It’s alright”.

Here comes the sun

Here comes the sun,

And I say, It’s all right

From “Here Comes the Sun” – Songwriter: George Harrison

Always looking for distractions during the declining months of the stock market … and I can always rely on my solar panels for good news. Solar Choice evaluate solar panels in Melbourne (where I live) to have a 22% – 36% internal rate of return on your investment (that’s good!) – and then there is the mantra of “doing the least harm” by minimising fossil fuel use.

The road to Solar Panels

Firstly, great apologies to planet Earth that it has taken me 6 decades to harness some of the sun’s energy for my personal power use. But what is done is done .. and I am moving forward with the zeal of a reformer.

Like all big financial decisions, Slack Investor was not immune to procrastination. There is always an excuse not to act … ” I’ll wait till I pay off my mortgage”, ” I’ll wait till I get to my dream home”, etc. What I wished that I knew during these periods of hesitation was that solar panels on your roof does not only make environmental sense … but it makes great financial sense.

What is sadly missing in energy debates is an analysis of the “total environmental cost” of each way of producing energy. A 2021 report on production and environmental costs of various means of electricity generation in Europe revealed a compelling case to move to wind farms and solar panels to make electricity. This report does not seem to include the vital battery storage costs in its analysis, but another study found the use of solar panels with utility-scale battery storage will have at least 10 times less emissions and air quality impact compared with natural gas or coal for power generation.

A graphic comparing the cost of various energy sources, along with environmental and health costs

Slack Investor tries to do his homework before dipping into his wallet and, during his solar research, I came across a very informative website solarquotes.com.au. Not only can you find great information on solar energy, but they can arrange quotes from 3 local installers. The system is free to the homeowner – I have no affiliation except for the great satisfaction of using their service. Where I live in Victoria, Australia, the governments are encouraging of Solar Panels and offer incentives to install a solar panel system.

Solar Panels now on Roof

The hard part is always deciding on the detail and, after 3 quotes, only one installer actually climbed on our roof and assessed the shading of surrounding obstructions. I decided to reward this initiative and ended up with a

  • 7.7 kW system
  • 6 kW Inverter
  • 22 x 350W panels
  • Solar Analytics Smart Monitor and lifetime subscription (Well worth it!)

The total cost was $10 906, but with the Australian government $3750 solar credits and the Victorian state government rebate of $1850, out of pocket costs were reduced to $5306

After 18 months, the first revelation to me was the daily variability of solar output of my system due to cloud and rain. The next revelation was the seasonal variability of the output. During winter, the sun is low and relatively weak – Summer is the time of peak production. The third revelation is the economies of using your own power rather than exporting to the grid due to a lower feed in tariff – but that analysis is worthy of a future blog.

The raw daily production of my solar panels in kWh during 2021, showing large daily and seasonal variation – The red line is the daily expected average of solar energy generated by my system – 27 kWh

The projections from my installer suggested a return on my investment after 4 years. The first hurdle is to recover the environmental cost of producing the raw metal, silicon and glass of these panels. With the increasing efficiency of solar panels, the environmental pay back period is between 1-2 years. The next hurdle is the financial costs including installer’s fees. My installer projected a break even point after 4 years.

Pleased to report that, after 18 months, everything is going according to expectations. Go Solar … good for planet … good for pocket … Slack Investor happy!

I am 18 months in to this grand solar experiment, and 39% paid off. The savings come from power sent back to the grid and the use of my own electricity during the day. On current projections the financial cost of the system will be fully recovered in 47 months – Just 4 years!

Get a job, mate … and February 2022 – End of Month Update

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: Climate action, jobs go hand in hand | The Courier Mail
For admirers of Australian art – this clever cartoon by Harry Bruce, The Courier Mail

The February 2022 Australian Labour Market report indicates that now might be a pretty good time to look for a job. Due to closed borders and huge government stimulus, Australia’s unemployment rate is at a rock bottom 4.2% – a 13-year low!

  • Skills and labour shortages increasing
  • Employers report increasing hiring difficulty

It might seem a little strange that Slack investor, a retired bloke, would be thinking about jobs … but I’m in need of distractions – as the stock market is tanking due to all sorts of uncertainties. I have set my portfolio mostly into stocks that I would like to keep. Although I missed the boat on a couple of my more speculative recent purchases. I have “trimmed the boat” a little, and will now will just wait for better times.

I found an intriguing graphic, amongst many other excellent visualisations, at Four Pillar Freedom. By combining data on occupational stress levels (100 = maximum stress) with median US salaries for 623 occupations, this interactive data plot was produced. The searchable raw data with much more detailed information can be found for occupational occupational stress levels and US job salary estimates.

By hovering your mouse around the data points below, occupations, salaries and stress levels are revealed. Ideally, you would not want a high stress, low-paid job (top left) e.g. Police, Fire, and Ambulance Dispatchers. Even a high stress, highly-paid job would not be that marvellous (top right) e.g. Nurse Anesthetist. The sweet spot for Slack Investor is the relatively low stress and a relatively high salary occupations lower right. As it happened, my working life moved from Secondary Teacher ($54K, Stress: 73) to Atmospheric Scientist ($94K, Stress: 85). I could play with this interactive plot for hours.

Jobs and automation

When thinking about what job you would like to do – it is good to think about the prospects of this job for many years to come. One of the threats to certain occupations is that technology and artificial intelligence will replace your finely honed skills. About 35% of current jobs in the UK are at high risk of automation over the next 20 years.

The top 8 occupations at risk from automation in the UK – Will a Robot take your job? – BBC

A more dense read on the same subject, How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Over the next two decades, the authors estimate that 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category. The sectors featured on the right hand side of the chart below have the biggest probability of computerisation. Jobs in Sales, and Office and Administrative support will be affected the most. A lot of the service jobs will be impacted – but some areas (left of chart) will remain needed.

A US study of occupations that breaks each occupational sector into risk categories, the “Low”, “Medium” and “High” risk of automation – From How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

In these times of turmoil … tune out a bit on the stock market … and keep working if you can. Slack Investor is heartened to find out (from research for this blog) that, for the next few decades, the likelihood of job automation for a manager of licenced premises … is only 0.4%.

February 2022 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares and the FTSE 100 but OUT for the US Index S&P 500 due to a sell in January 2022.

A volatile month, but the FTSE 100 ended up flat +0.3%. The Australian market drifted upwards +1.1% and the S&P 500 down -3.1%.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).