Buying Shares the Slack Way

Buying Fish (1669)Adriaen van Ostade

The last time Slack Investor wrote about how he buys shares was two years ago, and The Slack Buying Process is worth a read for the detail. I must admit that not much has changed in the method that I use. Two of the shares that I bought back then Alphabet (US:GOOGL) and Betashares NASDAQ 100 (ASX:NDQ) have done OK in that time period, but Coles (ASX:COL) has lagged a bit, but because of dividends, is not on the losing pile yet.

Buying Price
AUG 2021 (AUD)
Current Price
SEP 2023 (AUD)
US:GOOGL$195.45$214.53
ASX:NDQ$34.09$36.28
ASX:COL$17.94$15.85

Regardless of these preliminary two-year results, nothing fundamentally has changed for these companies and will stick things out for at least a 5-yr period – and then judge performance.

Since retiring, not much buying and selling goes on in my stable pile. For the investing pile, as I am now mostly a fully-invested “Buy and Hold” type of bloke, I don’t get to buy very often. The only opportunities come when I sell something, or my dividends build up beyond my living expenses.

The first thing to do is get a list of companies that you might be interested in. Slack Investor is an avid reader of the financial press. I get heaps of buying ideas from investment sites such as the AFR,  LivewireMorningstar, ShareCafe, InvestSmart, Motley Fool, etc. I pay particular attention when any articles I read mention “growth”.

Unlike when I am buying fish, for buying shares, I really want to look at the “guts” of a company. For this purpose, my best friend is the excellent Market Screener site. I type in the company name and then look at the Financials Tab. This gives me an overview of what the company has done and what analysts project that a company will do. There are lots of things to look at when evaluating a company – Management team, past performance, level of debt, projected sales, etc. However, if I could boil down a company to its essence with just two financial measures, it would be these two discussed below.

Return on Equity (ROE)

The ROE is usually expressed as a percentage and is the Companies

ROE = Stated Net Income/ Shareholder Equity.

For an instant way to look at whether a company is profitable, they will report a positive ROE. It is an indicator of how well the company uses shareholder funds. If I was getting a 5% return on my money in the bank, my ROE for that investment would be 5%. Obviously a high ROE is good. Slack investor likes his investments to have an ROE of at least 15%.

Sadly, the ROE can sometimes be manipulated by the management team by using a number of tricks. They might use accounting loopholes to distort earnings, or hiding assets off the balance sheet – both of these tricks will inflate the ROE.

As the denominator of the ROE equation is just shareholder equity, it ignores the effect of borrowings. Companies can boost their ROE by taking on large loans (risk). Also, a company with a large cash reserve (desirable for potential take-overs and share buy backs) will be penalised in the ROE calculation.

By screening out companies with large debt and including only companies with a track record of good management,- you can try to mitigate these risks in ROE calculation. Slack Investor is always looking forward, and he likes to use the Projected ROE of Future Income/Shareholder Equity.

Price/Earnings Ratio (PE)

The PE Ratio is defined as a companies share price to its earnings per share.

PE Ratio = Current Share Price/ Current Earnings per Share.

Slack Investor is usually looking at “growth” companies with a relatively high PE Ratio. A high PE ratio could either mean that a company’s stock is overvalued, or that there is an expectation that there might be high growth rates in the future.

By itself, the PE Ratio can be misleading. Sometimes, the earnings of a company can be manipulated through accounting measures and, there is a flaw in this ratio as it does not account for the assets and liabilities of a company.

A PE ratio is best used when compared against similar companies in the same industry or, for a single company across a period of time. Slack Investor usually gets the jitters when the projected PE Ratio is over the 40-50 mark.

Putting it all together

PE 2026ROE % 2026
ASX2014
CPU1633
TNE3834
XRO6220
SEK2511
COH3823
RMD1822

I put all my possible “growth” stock buying options into a table and used Market screener Financials to get the projected (future) values for PE Ratio and ROE for 2026. I rejected XRO as it was too expensive (PE Ratio greater than 40) and ASX and SEK for low ROE ( <15%). TNE is a great company with good ROE and no debt, but slightly expensive (ROE 38). COH was also slightly expensive (ROE 38).

This left me with CPU (Computershare) and RMD (Resmed). Both good companies with good prospects. Lets have a look at the charts.

Resmed (RMD) 5-yr Chart – Yahoo
Computershare (CPU) 5-yr chart – Yahoo

For now, Resmed (RMD) seems to be on a downward trend – and Computershare (CPU) on the up. The trend is your friend. This is not advice, but I bought some Computershare on the basis of the above analysis – slightly worried about the debt levels of CPU (which would tend to inflate the ROE), but I bought a small amount and will give this investment 5 years – then re-evaluate.

Vanguard 2023 Annual Long term Investing chart  and … August 2023 – End of Month Update

Whether it has been a good investing year – or a bad one, August is the time when the Vanguard long-term (30 yr) investing chart lands. It is a timely reminder that whatever is happening in the short term, investing for the long term (> 5-10 yr) in International and Australian shares will compound your wealth. Anyone with a steady income that exceeds their living expenses can do this – so, what a young Slack Investor would do, is Automate his investments, through platforms such as StockspotPearlerVanguard Personal, or Raiz) … and “Get Cracking!”

Extract from the 2023 Vanguard Index chart (Just the 2007-2023 portion) – the dollar values on the right are the results of investing $10000 in index funds in each asset class for 30 years (since July 1993) – Check out the full glory of the Vanguard 2023 chart in PDF format – Click image for better resolution.

The lessons of long term investing

Every year Vanguard publish their performance data on each asset class. Slack Investor looks forward to this – as it demonstrates the powerful compounding that happens when the appreciating asset classes of Shares and Property are held for a long time (30 years). Although this Vanguard collection of data shows the volatility of asset values in the short term – it also also emphasizes the joys of holding and accumulating shares or property for long periods of time. These asset classes have steadily increased in value over the last 30 years. $10000 invested in Australian Shares in 1993 would have compounded to $138 778 in 2023, US Shares would have compounded to $176 155. Staying in Cash would have yielded $34 737.

Slack Investor says download and study this chart … and work towards getting a mix of some appreciating assets … accumulate, then hang on!

Financial year total returns (%) for the major asset classes

In the Vanguard 2023 table below, for each asset class the total annual returns are given and the best performing class for each year is shaded in blue/green … and the worst in pink. What stands out to Slack Investor is that is rare for and asset class to lead in annual returns (blue/green) for two years in a row – and there are years where the leading asset class (blue/green) becomes the worst performer (pink) in the next year. This drives home the need to spread your investments over different asset classes (diversification) and stay the course – 30 years of data talks loudly to Slack Investor.

Total returns for each asset class for the 30 years since 1993 – Check out the full glory of the Vanguard 2023 Brochure in PDF format– Click table image for better resolution.

This table highlights the benefits of diversification across asset classes for the long-term investor. Each asset class might be the best performing (Blue/Green shading), or the worst performing (Pink shading) for the year – and might dominate (or languish) for up to two years in a row. However, often a worst performing asset will show up as the best performing asset in the very next year – or vice versa.

Slack Investor is accepting of the occasional negative returns on a yearly basis for the appreciating asset classes- and concentrates on the 30-yr average long-term annual returns for holding shares and property of over 9% p.a.

When averaged over 30 years, the asset class and annual returns are : For AUST. SHARES 10.0%; INT’L SHARES 8.7%; U.S. SHARES 11.6%; AUST. LISTED PROPERTY 9.0%; and INT’L LISTED PROPERTY 9.7%; This compares with the average cash return of 4.3% p.a.

Slack Investor knows where he wants to be … over the long term, it isn’t cash.

August 2023 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

All Slack Investor overseas followed markets had a negative month (S&P 500 -1.8 %, and the FTSE 100 -3.4% and the Australian stock market did the same (ASX 200 -1.4%).

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX IndexUK IndexUS Index).