Boring isn’t it. How Slack Investor goes on and on … and on and on … about long-term returns. But firstly, some short-term returns. All numbers are in for 2024 and the Slack followed markets all had an ‘above average’ year when dividends are included. The average returns are based upon the 2024 Vanguard Index chart 30-yr returns and, for the FTSE, the 20-yr return.
| Index | 2024 Index Return | 2024 Total Return (inc. Div) | Av. Yearly Total Return |
| ASX 200 | 7.5% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| FTSE 100 | 5.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% |
| S&P 500 | 23.3% | 25.0% | 11.1% |
The beautiful histogram of annual ASX 200 (and proxies) returns (that include dividends) from MarketIndex.com.au has been updated for 2024. Slack Investor is always pleased with an addition on the positive side of the ledger – he notes that there are many more positive years than negative – this also helps his disposition.
A similar pattern with the S&P 500.
For both the S&P 500 and the ASX 200, 19% of calendar years delivered a negative return. Therefore, on average, we can expect a negative return for one in every five years.
2025 Predictions?
Slack Investor is no seer. The Financial Press has come up with a range of views for 2025. In a very 2025 move, Slack Investor asked the AI Bot Perplexity for its predictions for the S&P 500 for 2025.
Based on various Wall Street analysts’ predictions, the S&P 500 is expected to deliver positive returns in 2025, with estimates ranging from approximately 9% to 20%. – Perplexity
From experience, Slack Investor knows that the financial press predictions are not very good. Perplexity cautions that the past S&P 500 predictions have generally been inaccurate and unreliable.
Whatever 2025 brings, Slack Investor will take the short-term returns on the chin – he does rely on positive returns in the long-term. As the chart below indicates. If you held a World Index Fund such as Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (VGS) for 5 years, you would expect positive returns on 88% of occasions. Longer holding periods will almost certainly yield you positive returns. VGS has a relatively low management fee of o.18% and does not hold Australian shares.
Some say that long term investing is boring – but Slack Investor finds it exceptionally satisfying.
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