ASX Index

Australian Index funds (ASX 200) … Slack Investor is IN.

Slack investor has a “soft sell” approach when the stop loss is breached and I gauge that the market is not too overvalued. I will not sell against the overall trend but monitor my index funds on a weekly basis after a breach.

Slack Investor has been running his “index-timing” strategy since 2004. Although, till recently, the method has proved to be an improvement on the “buy and hold” strategy, the benefits work out to be a few percent per annum for the Australian Index (i.e. 1.3% p.a outperformance for Slack market timing strategy over ASX200).

These relatively small gains would have been offset by share dividends if I was using the alternative “buy and hold” strategy. Market timing works well when there are sustained periods of bull and bear markets and the changes between the two are not too rapid. The short transitions and the recent speed of market fluctuations has forced a bit of a rethink on Slack Investor’s timing the markets strategy – and have decided to keep the experiment going for 20 years (till 2024) – then probably go for the more appropriate Slack Investor method of doing nothing and adopting a “buy and hold” technique for index funds.

Monthly chart and Monthly Updates for the ASX 200 (Click on chart for a much better resolution – from Incredible Charts)

DATE	ACTION	ASX 200	MONTHLY STOPLOSS	ASX 200 CYCLE CHANGE	VALUE OF $10K SLACKINV sinceJUN04	VALUE OF $10K ASX200 sinceJUN04	SLACK INV OUTPERF	SLACK INV OUTPERF(pa)
29-Nov-24	LATEST	8436	7492	46.6%	$35,244	$28,027	26%	1.3%
31-Oct-24	LATEST	8160	7492	41.8%	$34,091	$27,110	26%	1.3%
30-Sep-24	LATEST	8269	7492	43.7%	$34,546	$27,472	26%	1.3%
30-Aug-24	LATEST	8091	7492	40.6%	$33,802	$26,880	26%	1.3%
31-Jul-24	ADJUST SL	8092	7492	40.6%	$33,806	$26,884	26%	1.3%
28-Jun-24	LATEST	7767	6917	35.0%	$32,449	$25,804	26%	1.3%
31-May-24	LATEST	7701	6917	33.8%	$32,173	$25,585	26%	1.3%
30-Apr-24	LATEST	7664	6917	33.2%	$32,018	$25,462	26%	1.3%
28-Mar-24	LATEST	7896	6917	37.2%	$32,988	$26,233	26%	1.3%
29-Feb-24	LATEST	7698	6917	33.8%	$32,160	$25,575	26%	1.3%
31-Jan-24	LATEST	7680	6917	33.4%	$32,085	$25,515	26%	1.3%
29-Dec-23	LATEST	7590	6917	31.9%	$31,709	$25,216	26%	1.3%
30-Nov-23	LATEST	7087	6917	23.1%	$29,608	$23,545	26%	1.3%
31-Oct-23	SELL ALERT	6780	6917	17.8%	$28,325	$22,525	26%	1.3%
30-Sep-23	LATEST	7048	6917	22.5%	$29,445	$23,415	26%	1.3%
31-Aug-23	LATEST	7305	6917	26.9%	$30,519	$24,269	26%	1.3%
31-Jul-23	LATEST	7410	6917	28.8%	$30,957	$24,618	26%	1.3%
30-Jun-23	LATEST	7203	6917	25.2%	$30,092	$23,930	26%	1.4%
31-May-23	LATEST	7091	6917	23.2%	$29,624	$23,558	26%	1.4%
28-Apr-23	LATEST	7309	6917	27.0%	$30,535	$24,282	26%	1.4%
31-Mar-23	LATEST	7177	6917	24.7%	$29,984	$23,844	26%	1.4%
28-Feb-23	LATEST	7258	6917	26.1%	$30,322	$24,113	26%	1.4%
31-Jan-23	LATEST	7476	6917	29.9%	$31,233	$24,837	26%	1.4%
30-Dec-22	LATEST	7038	6917	22.3%	$29,403	$23,382	26%	1.4%
30-Nov-22	LATEST	7284	6917	26.6%	$30,431	$24,199	26%	1.4%
31-Oct-22	TENTATIVE SELL	6863	6917	19.3%	$28,672	$22,801	26%	1.4%
30-Sep-22	TENTATIVE SELL	6474	6917	12.5%	$27,047	$21,508	26%	1.4%
31-Aug-22	LATEST	6986	6917	21.4%	$29,186	$23,209	26%	1.4%
29-Jul-22	TENTATIVE REMAIN	6945	6917	20.7%	$29,015	$23,073	26%	1.4%
30-Jun-22	TENTATIVE SELL	6568	6917	14.1%	$27,440	$21,821	26%	1.4%
31-May-22	LATEST	7211	6917	25.3%	$30,126	$23,957	26%	1.4%
29-Apr-22	LATEST	7435	6917	29.2%	$31,062	$24,701	26%	1.4%
31-Mar-22	LATEST	7499	6917	30.3%	$31,329	$24,914	26%	1.5%
28-Feb-22	LATEST	7049	6917	22.5%	$29,449	$23,419	26%	1.5%
31-Jan-22	LATEST	6971	6917	21.1%	$29,123	$23,159	26%	1.5%
31-Dec-21	LATEST	7444	6917	29.3%	$31,099	$24,731	26%	1.5%
30-Nov-21	LATEST	7255	6917	26.1%	$30,310	$24,103	26%	1.5%
29-Oct-21	LATEST	7323	6917	27.2%	$30,595	$24,329	26%	1.5%
30-Sep-21	LATEST	7332	6917	27.4%	$30,631	$24,359	26%	1.5%
31-Aug-21	ADJUST SL	7534	6917	30.9%	$31,475	$25,030	26%	1.5%
30-Jul-21	LATEST	7392	6517	28.4%	$30,882	$24,558	26%	1.5%
30-Jun-21	LATEST	7313	6517	27.1%	$30,522	$24,296	26%	1.5%
31-May-21	LATEST	7161	6517	24.4%	$29,917	$23,791	26%	1.5%
30-Apr-21	LATEST	7025	6517	22.1%	$29,349	$23,339	26%	1.5%
31-Mar-21	LATEST	6790	6517	18.0%	$28,367	$22,558	26%	1.5%
26-Feb-21	ADJUST SL	6673	6517	16.0%	$27,878	$22,169	26%	1.5%
29-Jan-21	LATEST	6607	5763	14.8%	$27,602	$21,950	26%	1.6%
31-Dec-20	LATEST	6587	5763	14.5%	$27,519	$21,884	26%	1.6%
30-Nov-20	LATEST	6517	5763	13.2%	$27,226	$21,651	26%	1.6%
30-Oct-20	ADJUST SL	5927	5763	3.0%	$24,762	$19,691	26%	1.6%
30-Sep-20	LATEST	5815	5169	1.0%	$24,994	$19,319	26%	1.6%
31-Aug-20	LATEST	6060	5169	5.3%	$25,317	$20,133	26%	1.6%
31-Jul-20	LATEST	5927	5169	3.0%	$24,762	$19,691	26%	1.6%
30-Jun-20	LATEST	5897	5169	2.5%	$24,636	$19,591	26%	1.6%
29-May-20	BUY	5755	5169		$24,043	$19,120	26%	1.6%
31-Mar-20	SELL	5076	6396	-3.4%	$24,043	$16,864	43%	2.7%
29-Feb-20	LATEST	6441	6396	22.6%	$30,508	$21,399	43%	2.7%
31-Jan-20	Adjust SL	7017	6396	33.6%	$33,237	$23,312	43%	2.7%
31-May-18	Adjust SL	6011	5724	14.5%	$28,472	$19,970	43%	3.1%
31-Jul-17	Adjust SL	5720	5629	8.9%	$27,093	$19,003	43%	3.3%
31-Oct-16	Adjust SL	5317	5192	1.2%	$25,185	$17,664	43%	3.5%
29-Jul-16	Adjust SL	5562	5051	5.9%	$26,345	$18,478	43%	3.5%
29-Apr-16	BUY	5252	4881		$24,877	$17,449	43%	3.6%
31-Aug-15	SELL	5207		20.6%	$24,877	$17,299	44%	3.9%
31-Aug-12	BUY	4316	37.41		$20,620	$14,339	44%	5.4%
29-Jul-11	SELL	4424		15.9%	$20,620	$14,698	40%	5.7%
29-May-09	BUY	3817	29.41		$17,791	$12,681	40%	8.2%
31-Mar-08	SELL	5355		77.9%	$17,791	$17,791	0%	0%
30-Jun-04	STARTBUY	3010	32.1		$10,000	$10,000

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OLD Charts

Below are the legacy charts – for historical record! – when Slack Investor used the STW.AX ETF to base his buy/sell decisions on the Australian Index … I have now started using the ASX 200 directly (see above).

(Click on chart for better resolution)

DATE	ACTION	STW	~ ASX	MONTHLY	STW (CYCLE)	VALUE OF 10K	VALUE OF 10K	SLACK INV	SLACK INV
		(AUD)	100	STOPLOSS	GAIN/LOSS	SLACK INV sinceJUN04	INDEX sinceJUN04	OUTPERF	OUTPERF (pa)
30-SEP-17	LATEST	53.06		47.96	6.8%	$21,484	$14,917	44%	3.3%
30-Jun-16	Adjust SL			47.96
29-Apr-16	BUY	49.66	5252	43.89
31-Aug-15	SELL	48.99	5207		20.0%	$20,108	$13,773	46%	4.1%
30-Jan-15	Adjust SL			48.78
28-Nov-14	Adjust SL			48.2
31-Mar-14	Adjust SL			46.99
31-Jul-13	Adjust SL			43.33
31-Aug-12	BUY	40.81	4316	37.41
29-Jul-11	SELL	41.37	4424		13.7%	$16,750	$11,631	44%	6.2%
29-Apr-11	Adjust SL			42.49
31-May-10	Adjust SL			39.7
31-Jul-09	Adjust SL			34.59
29-May-09	BUY	36.37	3817	29.41
31-Mar-08	SELL	52.38	5355		47.3%	$14,726	$14,726	0%	0%
31-Aug-07	Adjust SL			52.9
30-Jun-06	Adjust SL			47.74
30-Jun-04	STARTBUY	35.57	3010	32.1		$10,000	$10,000