Category: Fees

The World According to GARP ETF

Slack Investor has never seen the film, though well reviewed, but he did struggle through the complex book by John Irving in the late eighties. His interest in GARP has been rekindled by a new ‘Smart Beta’ ETF that has been floated by Global X in October 2024. This one is fresh!

Smart Beta refers to an enhanced indexing strategy that seeks to exploit certain performance factors in an attempt to outperform a benchmark index – Fidelity

This is good … is it possible to get the benefits of passive investing with some of the advantages of active investing strategies? Can you have low fees with better performance than benchmarks? Perhaps all the hard work in selecting growth stocks can be done with a financial selection algorithm and Slack Investor can get back to the couch.

Global X S&P World ex Australia GARP ETF

Exposure to companies with robust earnings growth and solid financial strength trading at reasonable valuations – Global X S&P World ex Australia GARP ETF

Growth at A Reasonable Price (GARP) … in an ETF … am I dreaming? Is this too good to be true? Ahh … there is a management fee. But, it’s 0.3%. Not bad for a fund that has some selection smarts plus international exposure. There is a lot to like about this ETF.

Selection Process for GARP ETF

The GARP ETF tracks the S&P WORLD EX-AUSTRALIA GARP INDEX using a rules based stock section process. From the global shares universe, all companies are assigned a Growth score for their previous 3-yr growth. Then there is a Quality score that combines company assets to debt ratio, return on equity (ROE), and the earnings to price ratio (Inverse of P/E Ratio).

Once the ranking is complete, shares are selected that score highly in both categories and some restrictions on exposure to individual shares and sectors is applied – Mark LaMonica, Morningstar

So, by weeding out some of the companies that are ‘unreasonably’ priced the top 250 global companies are selected according to GARP principles. The price (P/E Ratio) filter should help mitigate the portfolio downside in a market downturn.

Performance

The GARP ASX ETF has only been running a month but Morningstar has gathered some data based upon the GARP principles over time.

GARP seems to perform better than the S&P 500 in some time frames, particularly in the periods that include a share crash. The 5-yr period includes the 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and, the 20-yr frame includes the  2007–2008 financial crisis (GFC). But these are just index values – without fees. When you factor in the GARP management fee of 0.3% compared to the iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV.ASX) fees of 0.04%, the outperformance of GARP does not look as good.

Top 15 Holdings GARP

GlobalX GARP ETF top 15 holdings

There are a lot of tech companies in here but also some consumer discretionary stocks. Some of the more expensive (high P/E ratios) tech companies must have been filtered out by the GARP process. It is only when Slack Investor takes a closer look at these companies that he starts to get ‘cold feet’. Overall, Slack Investor thinks this is a good package to get exposure to reasonably priced growth companies. Two things that hinder Slack Investor from investing are :

  1. The overlap in holdings to some of the ETF’s that he already owns. e.g. Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ.ASX) and Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF (QLTY.ASX) – a purchase of this ETF would not really add to the diversity of his share ownership
  2. In the the top 15 holdings, there are 3 Petrochemical companies – Exxon, Chevron and Shell.

Slack Investor will admit to some hypocrisy here. He owns a 15-yr old petrol driven car and regularly uses jet fuel to get to far away places. On the plus side, his roof is making renewable energy. However, the world is getting hotter and he’s aware that we must continue to work toward phasing out the use of fossil fuels. Are you listening Donald?

Slack Investor is a part owner of all types of companies through index and broad market ETF’s (e.g. VGS, STW, S&P 500 Index, etc). However, he has a ‘piddly’ moral stance of trying not to bundle into the Slack Portfolio any ETF’s that actively select higher proportions of Tobacco, Gambling or Fossil Fuel companies.

Is this making a better world? Probably not. But, leave Slack Investor alone to pursue his token activism – no harm done. Besides, it’s likely to be better than doing nothing. This is a personal thing and, Slack Investor encourages all investors to take on any sort of investment stance that feels right for them – providing it is profitable in the long term.

Auto-Diversification … and September 2024 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor tries to be a little diversified in his investing with his Three Pile Theory. Although my Investment Pile (The Slack Fund) consists mostly of Australian and International Shares, my Stable Pile (about 30% of retirement funds) consists of annuities, Real Estate ETFs, Fixed Interest products, some high dividend paying shares and some Cash. I own no bonds, Gold or Cryptocurrency. I am not very strict about rebalancing … but, that’s because I am slack! Deep down however, I’m convinced that diversification makes good financial sense.

A quick look at the yearly Vanguard diversification table below shows the percentage annual total returns for 9 different asset classes. I have only shown the last 17 years, but the 30-yr table can be found here in .pdf form.

Total returns for each asset class for the 30 years since 1992 – Check out the full 30-yr glory of the Vanguard 2024 – Importance of Diversification.pdf – Click this chart for better resolution.

For financial year 2024, the best performers were: Australian listed property returned 24.6%, US shares 24.1% and hedged ($AU) International shares 21.5%. The point of the Vanguard table is to highlight that it is very hard to try and predict the yearly winner. Slack Investor notes that International shares (particularly the US) have featured in the top 3 for a lot of these last 17 years. He also notes that Cash is a rare top performer – but, well done for 2022! It is always useful to have a look at the Vanguard Long Term Investing chart for a reminder of the compounding power of share investing.

Auto-Diversification

Superannuation

All of your Super contributions end up in a fund that is diversified to some extent. You usually can decide on how diversified you want it to be. For example, Australian Super offers, in their pre-mixed options: High Growth, Balanced, Socially Aware, Indexed Diversified, Conservative Balanced and Stable offerings. Even their High Growth option is split into a number of different asset classes – though their ranges seem a little ‘loose’ for full disclosure to their clients.

Australian Super ‘High Growth’ Pre-Mixed asset allocation by weight – June 2024

Slack Investor’s instincts has always been to be invested with the highest growth option … though I did reassess this a few years before retirement!

Other Investments

OK then, super is taken care of … but what if you want a diversified option for other investments that could be assured long-term growth without constant input. This is where robo advice might shine. Robo advisors usually package a mixture of low cost ETF’s into a diversified portfolio with automatic re-balancing.

Slack Investor is aware of many robo advisers that operate in Australia. ValueWalk has prepared an excellent summary article. Valuewalk compares and reviews: CommSec Pocket, Spaceship Voyager, Betashares Direct, Raiz, Sharesies, Pearler, Stockspot and InvestSMART.

Just for example, I will expand on the offerings of Stockspot as they have been going the longest and have the most assets under management ($800m). I have no financial interest in the company – though I am impressed with their results – outperforming 98% of similar funds over a 5-yr period. Depending on the risk profile that you want, Stockspot uses various combinations of just 5 low-cost ETF’s – one of which is gold.

There is a sliding scale management fee for which all admin and rebalancing is taken care of. For example, for account balances of $200,000+, there is an annual fee of 0.528% per year.

When Slack Investor loses the ability to stock pick growth stocks effectively (or, perish the thought … shuffles off this mortal coil!), I will set up some succession plans that will move our investments onto a secure ‘minimal involvement’ platform such as robo advice.

Slack Investor is old fashioned when it comes to ETF ownership. I much prefer the robo advisers that run under the HIN system (Holder Identification Number) – where the ETF’s are registered in your own name. This makes things simple if the robo adviser should cease operations e.g. Six Park (Aust).

The alternative is the ‘custodial’ system – where the investments are held on your behalf. Although custodial models can have lower costs – I like to see my name on the ownership documents. Stockspot is one of the advisers that run under the HIN system.

Although Slack Investor is a great believer in finding out about financial things for yourself with the magic of the internet. This way is not for everyone. Let’s just be clear, for most people, if you want specific advice on wealth management, tax advice, estate planning or a multitude of other finance problems, you are best counselled to seek a qualified financial adviser.

However, if you have a lump of money that you want invested in a diversified way that suits your risk profile, then robo advice seem a relatively cost-efficient way to ensure your investments are spread across asset classes. Naturally, Slack Investor would like the fees charged by robo advisors to come down a little before he parts with his Slack funds.

September 2024 – End of Month Update

Another month with a big range of daily closing values. The ASX 200 (+2.2%) and the S&P 500 (+2.0%) are in all time high territory. The FTSE 100 languishing and down 1.7% for the month.

Slack Investor remains IN for all markets.

The recent strength of the US market has pushed the closing monthly value to more than 15% above my old stop loss. I adjusted the stop loss upwards to a new ‘higher low’ of 5119.

Weekly chart for the S&P 500 Index showing the stop loss revised upwards to the new “higher low” of 5119.

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

The quarterly updates showing the shares in the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

Retirement Fees … and September 2023 – End of Month Update

Tax collectors – Marinus Van Reymerswale  (c. 1490 – c. 1546)

The ruthless faces of the tax collectors depicted by Marinus Van Reymerswale do not ring true to Slack investor. These days, tax and fee collectors sit smugly behind desks as the fees and taxes roll in. Don’t get me wrong, Slack Investor is pleased to pay his fair share of tax … but excess fees for investing, that’s another story.

Most people have money in a super fund during their working life – this is normally known as an Accumulation Fund. When they retire, and the money can be released, they rely on this saved money to pay of debt – or fund their retirement. It is usual practice that you ask whoever runs your super fund when it is accumulating to also run your retirement fund – that pays you a pension at regular intervals.

For a fee, the super funds take care of the “back end” of this retirement fund – where your money is invested and all the administration for the fund. The Super provider sets up a new account within your super called an Account Based Pension (ABP). There is a great advantage in doing this as all earnings from from money transferred to this pension part of the fund are tax free if you are over 60. At 60, Slack Investor converted all of his accumulation funds into an Account Based Pension.

Naturally, Slack Investor is all for minimising these fees. Lets have a look at some of my favourite industry funds (Low cost high/performance) – Australian Super, Hostplus, UniSuper, and HESTA. Using the Chant West AppleCheck online tool available through the Australian Super site we can compare what they charge for running an accounts based pension.

For comparison, I invested our hypothetical ABP in the “conservative growth” option (21-40% shares) on all funds. This is usually the least risky of pre-mixed types of investments – and might be favoured by retirees. There are more other pre-mixed options that have better long-term performance – but these other options have more volatility. I have shown below the fees on a $550K account comprising of a $500 000 Account Based Pension together with a smaller $50 000 Accumulation account that you might have still running for any extra contributions.

FUND10-yr Perf (%)5-yr Perf (%)Fees 500K PensionFees 50K Accum.TOT Fees 550K
Australian Super5.13.52602322$2924
HostPlus4.72.93043404$3447
UniSuper4.83.52696356$3052
HESTA5.44.33152362$3514

The more you have … the more they charge.

Looking at just the cheapest of the above Industry Super providers, Australian Super with a pension account of $500K, $1m, and the current maximum amount for an accounts based pension $1.9m – again using the Chant West AppleCheck online tool.

Australian SuperFees – PensionFees 50K Accum.TOT Fees
$500K Pension Fund2602322$2924
$1m Pension Fund4802322$5124
$1.9m Pension Fund8762322$9084

You could argue that these fees are reasonable, at around 0.5% of your invested funds, as there are inherent costs in investing and responsibly administrating these large amounts of money. Take the time to check what fees you are paying on your Super fund – and compare with a low cost/high performance fund using the AppleCheck tool – it might be time to switch funds!

Comparing Retirement fees with SMSF funds

Slack Investor is a great fan of the Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF) but recognizes that it is not for everyone – you must really be prepared to put a lot time and thought into the SMSF for it to be successful. To save on costs, rather than divesting responsibility to an accountant, Slack Investor uses a low-cost (no advice) provider and takes on a lot of the administration duties and investment responsibilities himself.

Unlike the Industry funds sliding scale for fees, a significant advantage in SMSF funds is that the costs are fixed – no matter what amount you have. For the 2023 financial year, Slack Investor’s costs through his provider eSuperfund were.

TaskAmount
Admin and Audit Costs (eSuperfund)$1,330
Brokerage (10 trades)$300
ETF Fees$2,300
Time (50h@$50)$2,500
TOTAL$3,930

In the above example of annual fees, I have tried to include a charge for my own time at a nominal 50 hours at $50 per hour. On average, a hour per week. Most weeks I wouldn’t spend any time on my SMSF but, around tax time, and when making decisions about buying or selling, pensions, or contributions, I would spend a few hours thinking or researching. Annually, 50 hours is a fair approximation. I would gladly perform these tasks for free as finance is an interest and a hobby, but I’ve included them above to make a proper comparison – as not everyone is a Slack Investor.

Running an SMSF, because of their fixed costs makes more sense with a large super fund (>$500K). However, at the core of any successful self-managed fund (SMSF) is the amount of time and effort that the trustees (you, and other members of the fund) are willing to put into it.

Given the all the above data, it could be better, but the amount of fees that a good industry fund charges to run your pension seem reasonable at around 0.5% of funds under management. Slack Investor hopes that competition and transparency should gradually lower these fees.

September 2023 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN far all followed markets. The ASX 200 (-3.5%) and the S&P 500 (-4.9%) have had a poor month. However, the FTSE 100 is emerging from the doldrums with a positive month (+2.3%).

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

The Long View

“Astronomie”, Georg Leopold Hertel and François Boucher, 1750 – 1778 – Rijksmuseum, Netherlands

What exactly these angelic cherubs are up to in this etching will remain a mystery to Slack Investor, but he would say that looking at things from a distance is a worthwhile trait in the stock market world. Slack Investor is currently in Europe on holiday and the geographical distance and time zone shift have helped him take more of a holiday from the markets … and just let them get on with it – without interference!

Take the long view

There are some scary headlines and plenty of volatility on the stock markets with worries about inflation and international bank collapses. Slack Investor will just pass on some sage advice. Here is the secret to being a good investor …

Don’t get caught up in what happens in three months, six months, or 12 months. It’s about the next five to seven years.

Paul Taylor, head of investments for Fidelity Australia and Portfolio Manager for the Fidelity Australian Equities Fund

Paul Taylor is no mug … his Australian Equities Fund is of the managed fund variety and, despite a slug of 0.85% p.a. in management fees, his fund has kept pace or slightly bettered the performance of the ASX 200 Accumulation index over the 5 and 10-yr periods. Even though the managers of the fund appear to know what they are doing, the difficulty of beating index funds over every time period is shown by the negative relative performance over 1 and 7-yrs.

Fidelity Australian Equities Fund performance compared to the ASX 200 Accumulation index – up to the end of February 2023.

Now, Slack Investor completely agrees with Mr Taylor, when investing in equities (shares), you should be locking them up for at least 5 years so that any volatility will be swamped by the beautiful long-term march of increasing value for Australian and International Shares. See the latest Vanguard Long Term Chart to see what I mean.

Slack Investor is still “pretend hurting” from his own last year’s (FY22) annual Slack performance (-14.3%). However, he realises his 5-yr and 10-yr performance is the critical measure for his Slack Fund. As these returns p.a. (13.5% (5-yr) and 15.2% (10-yr), are comfortably above benchmarks, I have reconciled the poor one year figures as just part of the volatility of owning mostly growth shares.

Contribute regularly to your savings

Whether adding to your super, or investment savings, the best way to do this is to add regularly, without even thinking about it. Set up an automatic personal deduction from your salary to your super – or automatically contribute to your savings through a vehicle that is in sync with your risk tolerances (e.g. Stockspot, Pearler).

As my super was accumulating, it was mostly in broad-based index funds (Australian and International). My other investments were mostly in individual companies.

While it’s possible to beat index funds, it’s not easy to do over the long run … and as it isn’t worthwhile for most of us to try.

Paul Samuelson, American Nobel prize winner in economics – from johncbogle.com

Slack Investor has some exposure to index-type ETF’s but continues to dabble in individual companies. Despite the above warning, Slack Investor will continue to “have a crack” at stock selection and portfolio management – but only while his long-term performance still stands up.

Things a Financial Advisor might tell you … and May 2023 – End of Month Update

From the Sydney Morning Herald

Slack Investor has blogged about financial advice before – and although an advocate of trying to do as much as you can by researching finance world yourself, it can be a very difficult journey to be across all the fields of saving, mortgages, investment loans, insurance, superannuation, taxation, and investment. 

Most people want financial advice but the problem is that it is so expensive. MoneySmart.gov.au outline a case study where “Rhett” has $400 000 to invest – He might be hit with fees of $13 600 in his first year of advice . These fees include a Statement of Advice and Insurance premiums and layers of platform and investment advice fees.

Where to invest your money is the easiest thing to sort out for yourself – with the key words being diversification and low fees. There are cost-effective ways of investing in a diversified way that will suit your risk tolerance without involving a financial advisor (e.g. Stockspot, Pearler). But some people (Not Slack Investor Readers!) need a trigger to just start investing. Finance world is much more complex than just investing your money. Slack Investor can see the need for finance professionals

Things a Financial Advisor might tell you

Firstlinks have trawled the data to determine the most recommended strategy used by financial advisers – the most common of these are listed below.

From Firstlinks

Let’s just have a look at some of these in more detail.

Rollover Your Super – “Rolling Over” your superannuation is just a way of describing the transfer of your “protected” super into another protected super fund. Slack Investor readers will be all over this one – Of course it makes sense to put all of your super with one provider to avoid multiple administration fees. Combine your super into one fund – preferably an industry fund (lowest fees) with a good 5-10 yr performance record.

Retain Your Super – This is again good advice for the long-term accumulators of wealth. Unless under extreme hardship, resist all attempts for early access to your super. During the COVID-19 outbreak, $4 billion was paid out to 456,000 people under the early super access scheme. This would have helped distressed businesses and individuals in the short-term but may not have been a great idea in the longer term.

Super Contributions – This is a more complicated area and, it might be good to have advice on when, and by how much ,you should boost your super contributions above those which are compulsory. This is tricky when you have competing loads on your take-home pay (Family, Mortgage, etc). Slack Investor was big on maximizing his super contributions once he had a firm grip on his home mortgage.

Apply for Insurance – When you have a family or debts (home loan?) to cover, life and disability insurance is a good idea. You don’t need an advisor to tell you this. Insurance through your super fund is usually the most cost effective way to do this.

Estate and Aged Care Planning – This area is really complicated for the layman. Professional Advice, or much research, needed.

Commence, Rollover, Retain Pension – You may need advice here if planning to mix aged-pension and super to fund retirement. If there are no aged-pension issues, Slack Investor believes that it is best to start an account pension (from your super) as soon as possible and re-contribute any surplus funds as non-concessional contributions.

Commence, Rebalance Investment – An old truth – Best time to start investing? 20 years ago. Next best time to start investing? Now! Rebalancing can be done automatically with cost-effective platforms e.g., Vanguard Super, Stockspot.

What Types of advice Do You Really Need?

The current financial advice system is complicated by well-meaning regulations that are in dire need of reform. In 2022, the Australian Treasury provided a consultation paper seeking feedback on changes to the regulatory regime that would allow financial advice on specific matters without the obligation that the advisor should know everything about your financial situation – No need for the expensive Statement of Advice (SOA).

Ideally, in a future world, you could get advice at various stages in your life from finance professionals at an hourly rate – perhaps in the same way you would consult a medical specialist about a problem. For Instance

  • Early/Mid-Career Advice: Am I on track with my savings, super contributions and retirement plan? What strategies should I employ to achieve my goals?
  • Pre-Retirement: Am I ready? Taxation Issues? Aged-pension/Super mix?
  • Estate and Aged Care Planning: Complicated – Many issues to discuss here.

Alternatively, you could just turn your financial future into a hobby (Like Slack Investor did), and use the internet and books to educate yourself.

May 2023 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.  It was a dreary month for the Slack Investor followed markets. The ASX 200 performed poorly this month – down 3.0%, and the FTSE 100 even worse – down 5.4%. The S&P 500 was flat (+0.2%) for the month.

In this month of turmoil for stock indexes, the Slack Portfolio did quite well. This is because it is heavy with technology stocks that are having a moment in the sunshine. The Nasdaq 100 index was up 7.7% for the month of May.

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Persistence is hard … and March 2023 – End of Month Update

Salvador Dalí, The Persistence of Memory (1931) – MoMA

Dali’s painting “The Persistence of Memory” has been described as a “surrealist meditation on the collapse of our notions of a fixed cosmic order“. Slack Investor is not gifted in the interpretation of artworks but would “have a crack” and say the work was indicating a lack of permanence, or persistency, that we often associate with everyday things. What Dali called “the camembert of time”.

“The sole difference between myself and a madman … is the fact that I am not mad!”

Salvador Dali

Persistence : (Noun) the act of persisting or persevering; continuing or repeating behaviour – vocabulary.com

Persistency is a great investing quality that impresses Slack Investor – but I acknowledge the difficulty. Standard & Poor’s collect data from the US market on how consistently recent top performing share funds are able to keep producing winning records in subsequent years. The following graphic tracks the funds that were in the top 25% of performers in 2018 – and who stayed in the top quartile in successive years.

The percentage of US funds that remain in the top 25% of funds after a 1, 2, 3 and 4 year period – S&P Research – Not many! – Ifa.com

Over a five-year horizon “it was statistically near impossible to find consistent outperformance.”

S&P Research – Ifa.com

Just because a fund, or portfolio, did well in one year does not mean it will continue to perform well the next year. Slack Investor has found this himself with his best performing stocks often becoming the worst performing in the next year – such is the nature of stocks. The stock market often moves between being overvalued and undervalued – and it is the same for individual companies.

Most active (stock picking) funds do not exceed their long-term benchmarks

Not only do active managed funds struggle to maintain consistency, most of them underperform index funds. We are lucky that there are a group of economic boffins that keep an eye on things in the funds department. They are the known as SPIVA (S&P Indices Versus Active). Since 2002, they have been collecting world financial data and comparing actively managed funds to passive (Index) Funds. The 2022 data is now in and the disappointing theme continues. For Australian Equity (Share) funds, for the 5 and 10-yr horizons, respectively, 81.2% and 78.2% of funds underperformed the S&P/ASX 200.

For International equities, the performance of active funds was worse – Over the 5 and 10-year periods, more than 86% and 95% of funds underperformed, respectively.

The percentage of underperforming Australian funds in various categories over a 1-yr, 3-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr and 15-yr period – SPIVA 2022 Report

How to cope with inflation

To keep pace with inflation you must be invested somewhere – so that your investments can grow faster than inflation (cpi) over time (at least 5 years). I will explain in a future article why I prefer shares and ETF’s as the vehicle to do this over other appreciating assets. So, on this path, to be exposed to equities (or stocks) you can either buy

  1. Active managed funds – Roll the dice here as most of these underperform Index funds after fees, but the minority showed some skill over benchmarks over a 5-yr period – but there is no guarantee that they will keep ahead of their benchmarks.
  2. Individual stocks – this is what Slack Investor does – but some experience is helpful here!
  3. Low-Cost Index Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) – this is the easiest path, and Stockspot have made the process even simpler by researching the best Index ETF’s in each class.

Exchange Traded Index Funds (ETF’s) for a Portfolio

Stockspot diligently analysed 640 of the largest managed funds available in Australia.

Australian Shares Index ETF

For Australian share exposure, Stockspot recommends the ETF ASX:VAS – as it has outperformed 74.3% of large cap Australian shares managed funds over 5 years with an Indirect Cost Ratio (Management Fee) of 0.1% and an annual return (over 5 years) 0f 9.0%.

From Stockspot

Australian Small Companies Index ETF

Here, Stockspot recommends the ETF ASX: VSO – as it has outperformed 63.5% of small cap Australian shares managed funds over 5 years with an Indirect Cost Ratio (Management Fee) of 0.3% and an annual return (over 5 years) 0f 11.7%

From Stockspot

International Shares Index ETF

For a swing at the world markets, Stockspot recommends the ETF ASX: IOO – as it has outperformed 97.5% of the large cap global managed funds, available in Australia, over 5 years with an Indirect Cost Ratio (Management Fee) of 0.4% and an annual return (over 5 years) 0f 14.2%.

From Stockspot

March 2023 – End of Month Update

After a sparkling January, the calendar year has crawled along in share market gains. But, it’s “dividend season” now – and this cheers Slack Investor up greatly.

Declines this month for the Australian and UK markets (ASX 200 – 1.1%, FTSE 100 -3.1%). Those irrepressible optimists in the US keep powering on, with the S&P 500 up 3.5% – even though this is the most overvalued of Slack-followed markets.

Slack Investor remains IN for the FTSE 100, the ASX 200, and the US Index S&P 500.

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed

ETF Themes … and Dreams

From ETF Database

It has become quite fashonable, worldwide, for new ETF’s to be launched onto the market with a “theme”. Robotics, Alternative Energy, Cryptocurrency, Battery Tech, or Artificial Intelligence are just some examples of themes where an ETF provider will bundle a number of companies together with a catchy ticker.

This trend seems to be also happening in Australia. Investsmart has been following the performance of a few of the new Australian thematic ETFs e.g. HACK (Cybersecurity), ERTH (Climate Change Innovators), ACDC (Battery Technologies and Lithium), ESPO (Gaming and eSports), CRYP (Cryptocurrency), CLDD (Cloud Computing) and DRUG (Healthcare). Their results, since the ETF inception dates, are a mixed bag. ACDC, DRUG and HACK outperformed the ASX200, while ERTH, ESPO, CRYP and CLDD have underperformed.

The two main problems with themed ETF’s is that they are generally expensive – have high management costs relative to other broad index ETF’s and, they concentrate risk in just one part of the market – the theme might suddenly fall out of favour e.g. ARKK.

The themed ETF’s generally have management fees of over 0.50% p.a., wheras broad Index funds have fees closer to 0.10%p.a. – Financial Times

In a comprehensive study (over 25 years) of US ETF’s, The Ohio State News concludes that these new themed ETF’s are based mostly on “hype” and they tend to lose value in comparison to the general market very soon after they are launched.

… specialized ETFs lost about 6% of value per year, with underperformance persisting at least five years after launch.

The Ohio State News

Thematic ETFs are often launched near the top of the market when interest in that theme is at a high. As a result, the stocks in the thematic ETF can start overpriced, resulting in underperformance.

Investsmart
from Stockspot

In the U.S. of the 277 ETFs that shut down in 2020, one-quarter of them didn’t make it to their third birthday

Stockspot – Why we avoid new thematic ETFs

Slack Investor Themed ETF Record – Not Good

Slack Investor has also not been immune to the “hype” and has bought a number of themed ETF’s, as well as a few broad-based index-type ETF’s. The latter, of which, I am generally happy with their long-term performance. My thinking was to get onboard, in a relatively easy way, to some exotic investment themes.

In the past 5 years I have bought VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT), Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Shrs ETF (VGE), BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK), BetaShares Glb Rbtc & Artfcl Intlgc ETF (RBTZ), BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASIA), VanEck Video Gaming & eSprts ETF (ESPO), BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF (QLTY), Global X Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ACDC), and Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Shrs ETF (VGE).

With hindsight, I can see the trap that I have fallen into. For example, E-Sports. I had read about E-Sports in the press and didn’t know much about them – except that they were popular, and they were the new “thing” – and growing fast. I didn’t know any individual companies in the field, as most of them were based in the US. When VanEck Bundled together a few of the E-Sport companies into a themed ETF, VanEck Video Gaming & eSprts ETF (ESPO) I was excited and bought into it. The trouble was, I was late to the party. As the chart above shows, by the time I entered the market, there was already a lot of hype, and the entry price paid was probably over-inflated.

The BUY-SELL price history of the themed ETF’s that Slack Investor has added to his portfolio. The first dot for each ETF is the BUY price and the second dot is either the SELL price, or the CURRENT price. If the lines keep going to the end of the chart (01/01/2023), then I am still holding the ETF.

When I plot out the price history of the themed ETF’s that I have bought over the past few years, the theme was not a dream. With the exception of the MOAT ETF, the flat or downward lines indicate a less than lustrous performance. Ideally, all my BUYS would slope upwards from left to right over time.

This chart is a good look in the “house of mirrors” for Slack Investor, I will continue to buy themed ETF’s in a small way to expose my investments to interesting sectors. However, I will modify my purchases of these themed ETF’s in the future – Or at least, wait a few years after launch for the excitement to settle down … and then invest.

Not all is lost, there are some bright lights amongst the themed ETF’s. The Morningstar Australian ETF’s top ten performers over 5 years ar a mixture of both themed ETF’s, and broad-based ETF’s. Over a realistic 5-yr time frame, where there is enough time for “our flowers to grow”, the top 10 annualized average 5-yearly growth is shown in bold. Over 10% p.a. is impressive – but you have to be lucky – or a great ETF picker.

NameYield %Fees (MER%)1-yr p.a.3 -yr p.a.5-yr p.a.10-yr p.a.
BetaShares Global Sstnbty Ldrs ETF (ETHI)2.610.59%-15.41%11.35%15.13%—
BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (NDQ)3.370.48%-28.41%9.25%14.71%—
BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK)8.720.67%-22.06%10.68%14.32%—
Global X Physical Palladium (ETPMPD)—0.49%-2.05%-1.16%14.17%14.43%
BetaShares Australian Res Sect ETF (QRE)14.540.34%22.98%13.80%13.72%7.71%
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)—0.49%-7.38%8.17%13.37%—
SPDR® S&P/ASX 200 Resources ETF (OZR)15.640.34%22.90%12.96%13.23%7.49%
iShares Global Healthcare ETF (AU) (IXJ)1.10.40%1.90%9.79%13.11%16.93%
iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV)1.420.04%-9.03%10.09%13.03%17.94%
Global X Morningstar Global Tech ETF (TECH)4.990.45%-29.06%5.29%12.76%—

Checkmate! ASX

From Chessbase

Slack Investor is all about “continuous improvement” Obviously not me … but everybody else! I normally have low expectations of “clip the ticket”, almost monopoly, systems such as the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) as there is little incentive for improvement – they are going to get there cut anyway. Last year, I did get off the couch briefly to have a bit of a rant about ASX Paper …I’m Drowning!‘ But I did end the blog on a hopeful note, that system change was just around the corner with a new “blockchain” based system to replace the Clearing House Electronic Sub-register System of the ASX (CHESS).

After reporting five delays on the CHESS replacement project, the ASX has just announced a move to drop the whole project – that it has been thinking about since 2005. In a damning review of the ASX’s handling of the project by Accenture, that has been described by business leaders as “embarrassing”. There are now undermined expectations that the ASX can ever deliver on any new market infrastructure with its current board and management.

The project, which has dragged on for seven years, will now be “reassessed”, the ASX stated in a media release this morning, with the abandoned software being “derecognised” at a gross cost of $245 million to $255 million.

Tahn Sharpe – The Inside Adviser

Although the structure of the current CHESS system is not broken, there are a lot of things that should be fixed.

The underlying software that runs CHESS was a legacy gift from the NASDAQ exchange (i.e. Cost = $0). It is starting to creak a bit though, as it was written over 22 years ago in COBOL. Slack Investor was hoping that the new system would improve on the layers of fee-charging “ticket clippers” that are in the current system – but it seems that the vested interests still have the ear of the ASX.

… the reality is that the CHESS replacement looks more like a replication of all the old systems with its layers of fees being paid to half a dozen different players.

Chanticleer – afr.com

Instead of being the first National Stock Exchange to try use the blockchain technology, perhaps the ASX could wait and see whether other exchanges can bed down this new “distributed ledger “technology – then adapt their systems. After all, using market value, our exchange represents under 2% of the world’s companies.

Countries with largest stock markets worldwide (January 2022), by share of total world equity market value – Statistica

But what would Slack Investor know? – he is only a punter. In the meantime, streamline the current CHESS system – make it better. Whatever we do … it should cost less than $250 million!

Vanguard Super … and November 2022 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor Hero, Jack Bogle, reflecting in casual ware – on how to keep costs down – New York Times

Jack Bogle created Vanguard as a “penny-pinching” financial powerhouse that was owned by the shareholders of its funds. Vanguard pioneered the low-cost index funds revolution.

The Vanguard Effect

The cost of financial products is important, and Slack Investor does his best to minimise any fees that come with financial transactions. It is not often I get to talk about two of my favourite finance things in one blog. Vanguard, the low-cost fund trendsetter and superannuation.

Vanguard have long been a fund manager and ETF provider that have been at the forefront of lower fees in the finance sector. The term “Vanguard Effect” has been coined to explain the phenomena that when Vanguard competes in an area, the expense ratios from their competitors tend to decrease.

Tracking the average Management Expense Ratio (MER) for US Index funds – Vanguard

Vanguard Superannuation in Australia

This month, Vanguard launched into the Australian Superannuation space with a product that is transparent and amongst the lowest fees for an accumulation account. The beauty of their offering is the straight up bundling of all their fees into one simple number – 0.58% of your super balance. Of course, Slack Investor would like a lower management fee – but this is a good start.

0.35% (Administration) + 0.21% (Investment) + 0.02% (Transaction) = 0.58%

The Vanguard MySuper Lifecycle product fees depend on how much Super you have. For a $50,000 balance, the total annual fee would be $290, for a $500,000 balance, the total annual fee would be $2900. The transparency is good – Drag out your own Super annual statement and try to work out your own total fees.

Using the ATO’s comparison of MySuper products tool for a few of the popular industry funds for a $50K balance.

UniSuperAustralianSuperHostPlusHesta
5-yr Net Return6.44%7.07%7.58%6.53%
Annual Fee$316$452$619$510

Of course, fees are not the only consideration. Many of the Industry funds use some sort of stock picking, and may use private equity to enhance their performance. Vanguard Super is made up of a mixture of index funds. I do like the way that the Vanguard Lifecycle automatically adjusts your exposure to risk as you creep towards retirement. 90% growth assets till age 45, then tapering to below 50% when you reach 60. All this is done automatically by Vanguard.

The adjustment of exposure of the Vanguard Livecycle super between growth and defensive assets as you age – Vanguard

Despite this juicy offering, there is often a lack of engagement of Australian workers with their superannuation. Vanguard will probably have a bit of trouble gaining traction in Australia due to the size and popularity of their industry super competitors. This product is currently only for accumulation accounts at this stage. It is a decent starting point by Vanguard and l0ok forward to details of their pension option (coming soon!). I also am hopeful of a bit of the “Vanguard Effect” to put a bit of pressure on existing superannuation fees – which are still too high.

A note that Slack Investor is not sponsored by Vanguard (or anyone else!), but I own a few of their ETF’s and their original founder, Jack Bogle, is one of the Slack Heroes.

November 2022 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor is now back IN for Australian index shares, UK Index shares and UK Index shares.

Last month’s update describes why I feel glad that my 20-yr index timing experiment is coming to an end in 2024. The frustrating moving out … then quickly back in to my Index funds is getting tiresome. I am likely to become just a “buy and hold” investor for my small portfolio of Index funds.

This month, all markets found there were “Reasons to be Cheerful”. There were positive movements all round. The ASX 200 +6.1%, the FTSE 100 +3.3% and the S&P 500 +5.4%.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Let’s Lay a Few Bricks … and Mid-Month Update

A 1999 extract from The Sydney Morning Herald showing a 13-yr old Chris Brycki – smartcompany.com.au

Slack Investor will admit to being less than young … but I am still capable of being a “Fan boy” when I see something impressive happening in the financial world.

After a series of schoolboy stock picking successes – winning the ASX’s Share Game a remarkable 3 times and, at university, he entered the JP Morgan Trading Competition, which he also won several times. The talented Chris “the Brick” Brycki, launched into a career with stockbrokers and financial houses. After a while, he started to question the long term performance of fund managers.

“… The problem is that over time, even by being right, the value added is not big enough to counteract the 1% fee that a lot of these fund managers charge.”

Chris Brycki – Stockspot – Livewire

Chris founded Stockspot in 2013 as an alternative way to invest. Their Robo Advice model offers a low-cost automated alternative to traditional fund managers and advisors. After a simple online survey to determine your investing stage and risk tolerance, an investment portfolio type is recommended to you.

Stockspot Building Blocks

Chris, founder and CEO of Stockspot, in 2020 – From smartcompany.com.au

Chris (and Stockspot) have come up with the breathtakingly simple, yet genius (Both Slack Investor and Donald Trump have a loose definition of genius), strategy. After researching thousands of ETF’s and, based on exposure, performance and low fee costs – Stockspot has selected just 5 of them as the building blocks for a range of different portfolios. The portfolios are based on risk tolerance, financial situation and the investor’s appetite for volatility. The five component ETF’s are in Australian Shares (VAS), Global Shares (IOO), Emerging Global Markets(IEM), Australian Fixed Income (IAF), and Physical Gold (GOLD).

ETFSymbol (ASX)1-yr PerformanceGrowth since InceptionManagement Fee
Vanguard Australian Shares IndexVAS-7.92%8.25%p.a (13+ years)0.10%p.a.
iShares Global 100 IOO-4.43%7.37%p.a. (15+yearsr)0.40%p.a.
iShares MSCI Emerging MarketsIEM-20.59%7.18%p.a.(19+ years)0.69%p.a.
iShares Core Composite BondIAF-11.42%2.73%p.a.(10+ years)0.15%p.a.
ETFS Physical GoldGOLD+7.34%7.75%p.a.(19+ years)0.40%p.a.
The five ETF’s that Stockspot use to build their portfolios (1-yr Performance is to 13Oct 2022) – most of these ETF’s have a $500 minimum if you are investing directly.

It is best to disregard the above 1-yr performance – It has just been a bad year for most assets. The ETF management fees are low (depending on ETF complexity), there is good long term performance (Growth since Inception) and they have selected Physical Gold for inclusion.

Slack Investor does not naturally lean into Gold as it is a speculative, non-income producing asset. However, I might have to change my mind here. The reason Stockspot include Gold in all their portfolios is based upon historical data and the way gold tends to outperform in times of crisis. The results in this last year performance of +7.34% for Gold, speak for itself – as other asset classes flounder.

Mixing it all up

Slack Investor has written about Stockspot before in terms of Robo Advice and their valuable Superannuation reports. By using these 5 ETF’s in various combinations, Stockspot is able to give their customers a combination of returns and risk at a relatively low cost. There are even sustainable versions of each of the below portfolios available. As an example, the moderately conservative Sapphire portfolio is constructed with the following portions.

VAS: 27.2%
IAF: 35.2%
IEM: 14.4%
IOO: 7.9%
GOLD: 14.8%

A chart showing relative risk and return (grey line) of a portfolio varying between 100% Australian Bonds and 100% Australian Shares. The Stockspot portfolios have historically yielded lower returns than 100% Australian Shares) – but only slightly in their most aggressive Topaz portfolio. Overall, through their diversification, the portfolios represent much lower risk.

After fees, over a 5-yr period, Stockspot has outperformed 99% of similar funds over 5 years.

AMETHYST
Conservative		SAPPHIRE
Moderately conservative		TURQUOISE
Balanced		EMERALD
Growth		TOPAZ
High growth
3.1% p.a4.8% p.a5.3% p.a6.1% p.a6.8% p.a
5-yr annual performance (After Fees) – to 30 September 2022 – From Stockspot

There are fees involved for Stockspot to manage your money. For a balance of $200000, they amount to 0.66%. At first blush, these fees (on top of the ETF fees) sound a bit steep to Slack Investor. However, for all types of investors, with a time horizon of at least 3-5 years, for a stress-free place to put your money, this might be exactly what they are looking for. Stockspot do a tailor-made portfolio construction, all the re-balancing of assets and, they take care of all brokerage costs – Not Bad! They even have zero management fees for children accounts up to $10,000 (for under 18s) and the ability to dollar cost average with regular top-ups.

Stockspot does not earn fees from or have a commercial relationship with the ETFs we recommend. We don’t pay professionals for recommending our service to their clients.

Stockspot

Slack Investor can think of lots of situations where people would like a decision-free, low-fee, diverse investment that is designed to grow in the long term. Well done Chris Brycki (and Stockspot), for advancing the investing cause with particular attention to keeping the fees down … you are a Slack Investor Hero.

October 2022 – Mid-Month Update

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is trend-1445464__180.jpg

Despite the above discussion, my small-scale market timing experiment continues until its projected end in 2024. My frustration with this experiment continues – as it often goes against one of Slack Investors firm beliefs. If you can avoid it – Do not sell an asset when it is undervalued. Using historical CAPE values, at the end of September 2022, the UK Index (FTSE 100) was 13% below its long term mean, the US Index (S&P 500) was 9% above its long term mean, and the Australian Index (S&P 500) was 7% below its long term mean.

At the end of September 2022, Slack Investor was on SELL ALERT for Australian index shares (ASX 200), the US Index (S&P 500) and the UK Index (FTSE 100). Each of them had broken through their monthly stop loss.

 I have a “soft sell” approach when I gauge that the market is not too overvalued. I generally will not sell against the overall trend but monitor my index funds on a weekly basis once the monthly stop loss has been triggered.

Well … I can see no obvious up-trend at the end of the week for the US and UK markets and will exit at the end of week price of 3583 for the S&P 500 and 6858 for the FTSE 100. I am still just hanging in with the ASX 200 as they had a strong finish to the week.

The Index pages and charts  have been updated for the  UK Index and US Index.