HACK

From Pixabay.com

Cripes … it seems that even cyber criminals with circuit board faces wear hoodies!

Slack Investor has had minor issues with PC viral infections over the years – these types of virus seem very benign in current circumstances. I also had a distant brush with a more organized form of cyber hacking back in 2015 with my previous employer.

“I can confirm reports that the Bureau of Meteorology suffered a significant cyber intrusion which was first discovered early last year” 

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 – the ABC News

Were the Chinese after my 30 years of sea breeze wind data? Probably not. This breach triggered an injection of government funds to try and combat cyber attacks. More recently, the current Australian government is talking about a huge $1.35 billion investment to increase Australia’s cyber security capabilities, Even smaller businesses are having to invest in cyber security as technology invades our lives.

As well as worrying about cybersecurity, the COVID-19 crisis lurches on. It is not just the retailers that are suffering, In the US, major companies such as Hertz and several US airlines have recently filed for bankruptcy due to COVID-19. At the moment, many companies are drawing down on available credit, standing down their staff, delaying projects and taking advantage of government relief programs.

It will be a delicate dance by national governments trying to support the economy with limited funds until a viable vaccine is established. When they halt these stimulus programs, each company will start burning through their cash. That’s when bankruptcy cases are likely to soar and stay elevated.

… this year (2020) will easily set a record for so-called mega bankruptcies — filings by companies with $1 billion or more in debt … the number of merely large bankruptcies — at least $100 million — to challenge the record set the year after the 2008 economic crisis.

Edward I. Altman, Professor Emeritus of Finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business – from Intelligencer
A Graph of US stocks showing valuation trend since 1998. Valuations derived from P/E ratios and comparing them to the long term mean and scaling it to 50. Companies in the US look definity over valued. Sourced from Livewiremarkets.

Slack Investor has been a big fan of some of the companies in the technology sector – as these shares are exposed to growth. This internet thing keeps increasing its grip on our lives. The recent “recovery rally” has led to stock prices being “fully” or “over valued” – particularly in the US. It is difficult to argue against this in these uncertain times as estimates for future US earnings decrease.

In an environment when many sections of the economy are in big trouble, in many ways, it might be a good time to take a bit of risk off the table and build up a little cash. However, not all tech companies are tied to the consumer economy and there will be a continuing need for individual companies and governments to make investments for the protection of their internet structures. Cyber security is now the fastest growing technology sector

BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK)

HACK is a BetaShares ETF that provides exposure to the leading companies in the global cybersecurity sector. Most of these companies are based in the US (87%). HACK is currently invested in 49 companies that include well known names such as Broadcom and Cisco. There are many other companies that Slack Investor has never heard of such as Crowdstrike, Splunk and OKTA – and, I assume the fund managers know much more about the sector than I do.

Weekly chart of HACK for the past 12 months. On June 30, 2020 there was a 91c distribution which accounts for the big price drop – incrediblecharts.com

The management expense ratio is high at 0.67%. I will “suck this up” while it is performing well. Can’t argue with past yearly HACK performance – over 1-year (+19.9%) and 3-years (+20.3%). Probably not the best time to buy, but Slack Investor can’t help himself – this must be close to a recession-proof section of the economy. I dived in last month as I can’t resist a growing industry!

What’s that smell? … Banks!

With great thanks and acknowledgement to the insightful and talented Randy Glasbergen

KPMG have just reported that banks are starting to lose their shine and the big 4 banks in Australia have reached a “turning point”. Slack Investor would argue that, after a pretty good recovery post the GFC, Australian Banks have been in decline since early 2015. NAB is the last to confess this reporting season … They are all businesses that will find growth difficult.

With its full-year profit of $4.8 billion, down 13.6 per cent, it joined ANZ, Commonwealth and Westpac in announcing a big decline in earnings.

From abc news
The ASX Bank Index since 2000. Except for the GFC 2008/9, the banks have performed well – as well as paying high dividends. Things changed in March 2015 where, despite temporary recoveries, there has been a general decline in share price. From Investing.com

Self Managed Super Funds are a great place to park your super money for the hands-on investor. But, they are not for everyone. You really need to have a real interest in investing and at least $200 000 in your super savings. According to ATO Data, at 31 December 2017, the most commonly held SMSF share investments (by investment size) are below: There are a lot of banks!

Commonwealth Bank
Westpac Banking Corporation
National Australia Bank
Magellan Global Fund
BHP Billiton Limited
Platinum International Fund
ANZ Limited
Telstra Corporation
CSL
Wesfarmers

Not a bad portfolio for the past 10 years … but, the tide for the banks has already turned with low interest rates affecting margins, increased competition from the more nimble digital banks, the Hayne Royal commission “blowback” forcing the banks to separate from their profitable wealth management businesses, and recent dividend cuts announced. A closer look at the top 5 SMSF shares with financial statistics from the excellent marketscreener.com. The 1-yr returns over the past year for each stock are lifted from marketindex.com.au .

SMSF 2017 Top 5 Shares P/E 2020Yield %ROE %1-yr Ret %
Commonwealth BankCBA155.51312.4
Westpac BankWBC145.911-3.7
National BankNAB1261216.7
BHP BillitonBHP125.32210.9
ANZ ANZ12612-3.9
Average 135.7146.5

Slack Investor can understand the lure of juicy bank dividends for SMSF funds. But, if the dividend is coming with a reducing share price due to the bank business shrinking – then this is not a good deal – and perhaps look to higher yield industrial shares or industrial/office REITs for that cherished income rather than banks.

Sing the praises for Return on Equity (ROE) and Earnings per Share (EPS) Growth

This is one of the first financial statistics that I look at when deciding on a company to buy. Return on Equity is a company’s Net Profit ÷ Average Shareholder Equity. If a company had a net worth of $10 million and made a profit of $2 million, its ROE would be 2/10 x 100 = 20%.

High ROE companies generate a lot of cash – this cash they can then use to grow their business. If they also have a good increase in their Earnings Per Share (EPS) – Slack Investor would classify them as “Growth” Companies.

CSL Earnings per Share- and projected EPS for 2022 -2024

Generally, companies with a ROE of >15% get Slack Investor’s attention but some businesses require lot of infrastructure before they can generate profit. For this reason ROE is best used to compare companies in the same industry. For contrast with the 2017 SMSF, let’s have a look at Slack Investor’s Top 5 stocks from the Portfolio page (This is not advice!). Data gathered from marketscreener.com and marketindex.com.au .

Slack Investor Top 5 Shares P/E 2020Yield %ROE %1-yr Ret %
CSL LtdCSL381.23538.3
Altium LtdALU461.63144.9
Cochlear LtdCOH411.73826
Macquarie Group LtdMQG164.41611.5
REA Group LtdREA401.33527.9
Average 362.03129.7

The average ROE for the Slack Portfolio is much higher than for the 2017 SMSF top 5 (31% vs 14%) . They also all have a projected increasing Earnings per Share (EPS) – and this indicates the Slack preference for growth companies.

However, with growth comes volatility and the Slack Investor top 5 would not suit those who rely on their investments for income. The Slack portfolio would probably suit an investor with a longer term view and a separate income. If you are still working and want to grow your wealth through shares … then the ROE should be one of your guiding lights for company selection.