Index funds | Slack Investor

Measurement … the Sweet Science

“….when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind…”

Lord Kelvin, a Science “Hall of Fame” member was right … Particularly so when it comes to your investments. As well as some notable scientific discoveries, including the invention of the absolute temperature scale which defines the lowest possible temperature – at which atoms stop moving (-273.15C) – The wise Lord Kelvin showed a respect for measurement … and the nerd in me remembers the graffiti homage from Physics Lab toilet doors …

Absolute Zero is Cool!

Slack Investor takes the measurement of investment performance very seriously and puts some effort into doing it right. Slack Investor is old enough to recall the famous case of the Beardstown Ladies Investment Club – a club that published a book in 1994 that claimed a market-beating investment performance from a group of talented, but amateur, investors from a small town in Illinois, USA.

The Beardstown Ladies are a group that are still going, a 14-woman investment club that hit the financial headlines with their “The Beardstown Ladies’ Common-Sense Investment Guide” which included a seemingly astounding financial performance that beat the best of Wall Street with their investment returns of 23.4% pa between 1984 and 1993.

This gave other amateur investors a real kick and did wonders for their book sales. It was far better than the 14.9% gained by the index S & P 500 and almost twice the 12.6% return of the average US stock mutual fund.

However, after an independent audit, according to the LA Times, in 1998, their was a recalculation of their the performance figures amid questions about accuracy. The ladies, sadly, have an audited revised portfolio return of a 9.1% a year – a great effort … but lagging the index!

The problem was, the lovely ladies from Beardstown had innocently forgotten to account for their cash flows into the fund (Contributions) and these had been added into their portfolio performance to give an inflated figure. Their book is still for sale … and they have published four others … The US loves winners(?)!

The Slack Investor message is to not always believe what you read … wait for the independent audits … and, like Lord Kelvin, to avoid “meagre and unsatisfactory knowledge”, take some time in your measurement of portfolio performance. More of this next month …

July 2017 – End of Month Update … and Long Term Returns!

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

A steady month for the ASX and gains for the UK market (0.7%) and the US Market (2.3%) – It must be the “Mooch” Effect. I am sad to see him go … In a circus you need heaps of clowns!

Chant West are a superannuation consultancy and research firm that release a trove of data on how superannuation is rolling along in Australia. The have excelled themselves in a very timely media release. outlining that this is the 8th financial year in a row of median gains for Australian Super “Growth” funds. They define growth funds as funds that invest 60-80% of their investments in growth assets such as shares and property. Their results for the past 25 years for Australian Super Funds is presented below.

Median Australian Growth Super Financial Year Returns (%) – net of fees and taxes – from Chant West

Despite the worries of the world, this last financial year, the median of Australian growth funds achieved a 10.7% return and some of the low fee funds discussed in the last post, such as HostPlus and Sunsuper achieved FY17 returns of 13.2% and 12.4% respectively in a year where the safety of cash could only yield 1.8%.

The five-year period up till now have been boom times for the share market. There will be high fives and bonuses all round for the suits that control your funds. This has been a good investing year and you should rejoice at the returns shown in your super statements when they are sent to you soon – and reflect upon the pitiful returns that you would have got if you had your super invested in a bank account.

But, it is a good reminder that not all years represent gravy for growth funds and it is the nature of these assets that their will be some yearly fluctuations. Slack Investor’s feeble memory is strong on the returns of the years 2008 and 2009 where the Global Financial Crisis caused asset prices and market returns to crash. I can remember many who lamented that this compulsory super business was a costly rort – it was tough to watch your retirement savings shrink even though money was taken out of your wages each week.

Slack Investor has a soft spot for the bard

“Ay, to the proof, as mountains are for winds, that shakes not, though they blow perpetually.” ― William Shakespeare, The Taming of the Shrew

So “shake not” dear investors … think long term and think growth … and despite the occasional disappointment … you will be rewarded! Compound interest will be doing its work on your savings in all those years that are blue in the above image – It is only fair that you have got to give compound interest the occasional year off – for recuperation!

I have updated all Index pages and charts to reflect the end of month data. .

Spaceship … Let Me Out Here!

Hey you Millennial dudes and hipsters… Suh!

Space … sounds good … its so snatched! … Spaceship … even better. Come on … lets get on board. Superannuation is so boring … but Spaceship .. Its so now – isn’t Elon Musk working on one?

What Slack Investor is referring to is the reach out to the younger crowd of cool new investor products that will look after your superannuation in a really cool way. Spaceship, is just one of the new breed of disruptors (e.g, Zuper, MobiSuper, Grow Super) that is encouraging you to put your super investments into a high tech sounding enterprise that focuses on new technology companies. It seems that their marketing push has been successful with at least $100 million in funds under management for Spaceship.

Now, Slack Investor has a soft spot for disruptors that make use of new technology to help the investor work more efficiently through lower costs and new platforms. However, Spaceship and their ilk are not, so far, disruptors. They are just a repackaging of the same old greedy financial industry that are trying to separate the investor from their hard earned loot.

We had a look at the critical importance of fees in investment in an earlier articles here and here. Despite the marketing fluff, Slack Investor is getting off the couch and drilling down. A highly recommended process before you part with your money to anyone. Spaceship fees are 1.6% plus administration, MobiSuper fees 1.5% plus admin fees, Grow Super fees are 1.85%! Fees are critical to investment returns.

The same drilling down process can be done in the USA with Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA) or employer sponsored 401(k) plans. Google is your friend – Long term performance and Fees Fees Fees is what you are looking for. A good articles for the USA on fee impact can be found here, And for the UK here.

The Australian Securities and investment commission (ASIC) says

A 1 % difference in fees can lead to a 20 per cent difference in the value of a superannuation benefit over 30 years.

From Hostplus – Money Magazine Best of Best 2017

The above table shows some existing funds that have established long-term returns and with a fee structure less than 0.5% for $50000 invested.

So get out of the spaceship … and relish life on planet Earth with some low cost super funds … they are so “On Fleek” as far as your money is concerned.

Volatility … Its Scarey! … Take a deep Breath!

The range of one year share investment returns over a 10-year period – From Fidelity

In the above data collected by Fidelity, it is sobering to look at the range of returns that a share investor can expect over a one year period. By setting stop losses, you can help protect yourself from the very worst of declines – but even with this protection, there will be some bad investment years. Lets look at the worst investment year for Australian Shares shown above (-40%). Even with stop losses, your portfolio might lose 10-25% due to prices rapidly falling before you can act. This is a major hit on your savings and during the 2008 GFC many experienced losses in their investment and superannuation savings that have turned them off share investment forever. This, in hindsight, has not been the best decision as cash returns have been relatively low and, up till June 2016, median balanced funds have improved 86% since this global financial crisis.

But volatility is not for everyone – You must be able to sleep at night!

This week, Slack Investor just had the shock of one of his stocks dropping in price by 37% on an earnings update. Price swings like this on your hard-earned investment dollars are hard to take and the volatility of the stock market – particularly with individual companies – make share investment a difficult environment for many.

To Slack Investor this is was not great news and though I prefer to make my investment decisions at the end of each month, the price revision has triggered the “not very slack” procedure of a review of this stock. Are the companies earnings still forecast to grow? There is now a daily review of this stock – with a view to sell. The correction may be an over reaction … or just the start of more bad news.

The things that protect me in these moments are diversification and the fact that Slack Investor is a long term investor. There are always at least 20 stocks or managed funds in the Slack Portfolio.

Although at the time of buying, by doing a bit of research on past and future earnings, I am convinced that each individual company will be an enormous contributor to the retirement fund. However, I have been investing long enough to know that things don’t always pan out as forecast … and I have realized that it’s not necessary to get all your investment decisions right … just so long as you get a good portion of them right!

Investing can be tricky at times and during times of market volatility it is useful to take the long view. The 15-year extract above (Shown on a compressed Logarithmic scale)- from Fidelity – indicates what would happen to a $10 000 investment over 30 years in index funds in various markets. For Australian shares the average yearly return is 8.5% over 30 years – but there were some boom times over this time frame. Over a shorter period, Canstar reports a 10-year average return for the Australian Index of 5.5% compared to the, admittedly risk free, cash option of 3.1% over 10 years.

Particularly in these times of low bond and cash yields, if you can accept the volatility of the share market, be willing to live with the occasional investment mistake and have a diverse list of well-managed growing companies in your portfolio – take a deep breath and you will be OK!

Not Index Funds Again … This is Boring!

This site spends a bit of time talking about index funds, here and here. As well as the blog, the Slack Investor site hosts pages following the ASX Index, US Index and UK Index. This is because Slack Investor likes, and is invested in, these type of funds. Each page is dedicated to a rules-based method of following these type of funds in a (mostly!) profitable manner … and, in the Slack Investor tradition, a minimal amount of energy needs to be spent on these investments.

The astute reader will peruse my portfolio page and ask the question

Why does Slack Investor keep going on about these funds when only ~4% of his portfolio is invested in them?

The explanation is that Slack Investor started out 100% in Index funds … and, with some experience started trading in individual shares. I currently have a mixture of both. Index funds are a great place to start your journey into share investment.

There are some eloquent arguments against using the broad index funds as an investment tool. Montgomery maintains the theme “why fill the saddlebags with bad companies!” in this article.

However, despite these funds labelled as “dumb investing” by some, Index funds become more popular each year and have some solid support in the investing community. Slack Investor has developed a simple rules-based method for (usually!) profitable trading in index funds that only requires monthly monitoring. At the end of each month, I will look at the monthly chart of each followed index on Incredible Charts and make one of three decisions – buy, sell, or move my stop loss.

The simplicity of this approach is appealing for its slackness!

Details of this method will be eventually posted on the index pages – Not because I’m secretive, … just because I’m a little slack … and I think it will make an interesting future post … but for now, monthly decision points will be posted as soon as they are made.

This “index trading” method is different to how individual companies are traded by Slack Investor. There are greater risks involved in trading just a few individual companies … but the potential rewards are also much greater! One of the few advantages of being in the investment game a long time is having enough capital to have positions in at least 20 companies … this limits “individual company” risk as each company is just a small fraction of my total portfolio.

Slack Investor is currently enjoying the decisions associated with trading individual companies … even though a bit of effort goes into researching the companies – and they require more monitoring (work!). I am rational enough to know that there will be a time where this extra work will lose its appeal … and then I will revert back to index investing … “dumb” perhaps … but hopefully still profitable.