Market Value – End of May 2024 … and Travel Navigation

The Jeweller’s Bounty (1918)Daniel Cortes

A few times a year, Slack Investor likes to take a snapshot of the markets using the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE) which use ten-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. I first started using CAPE as a “value” tool in September 2021 and, my most recent look was for the end of January 2024. I have decided to do this CAPE market value analysis every few months.

Jeremy Grantham is a well known and astute investor and he argues that recent globalization has benefited the profitability of US companies and that their is good reason for an increasing CAPE trend in the US markets. However, there is some good research that links CAPE to future returns.

The CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE) ratio is not a useful timing signal for market turning points, but is a powerful predictor of long-term market returns

Research Affiliates

By plotting this CAPE over a period of time, we can look at how the whole sharemarket is currently valued in terms of historical data – this way we can track the whole share market as it oscillates between overvalued and undervalued. According to Research Affiliates, CAPE offers a negative correlation with subsequent 10-year and 20-year stock market returns – the higher the current CAPE, the lower are the expected future returns.

For the following charts, I use monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the latest CAPE values – up till the end of May 2024. A “fair value” zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average) – click images for better resolution.

The US market remains the outlier here at 37% above its long-term value. Slack Investor is no guru, but, it doesn’t make sense to him to invest new money into a “frothy” whole-market index like the S&P 500 – at the moment!

ASX 200 Value (4% above long-term value)

FTSE 100 Value (4% below long-term value)

S&P 500 Value (37% above long-term value)

Slack Greetings from Provence – plus Navigational Tips

Evening view of the Luberon Valley, from Bonnieux, Provence. France

Slack Investor is in Europe at the moment (Boo … Hiss!), I have just finished a walking holiday in Provence, France. All I can say is that – it is a beautiful part of the world.

Steeped in history and preserved in that remarkable French way that respects the past. We moved around the intricate roads and paths using a fantastic bit of Android/IOS/Windows software called Komoot. The software is free to download on your phone with one local region – and, I added world maps for a one-time lifetime fee of $30 USD about 10 years ago – It was the best money I have ever spent, as I use the app daily. You can plot “tours” that are based upon the comprehensive “Open Street Maps” network which lists all the tiny paths and tracks that rarely appear in Google Maps. The output is best used on your phone – but the app is easier to plan using the desktop version of your Komoot account. I have no financial interest in any of the products that Slack Investor sometimes rambles on about.

Google Maps output for the area 5km east of Gordes, Provence, France – great for roads and business locations
Komoot output for the area 5km east of Gordes, Provence, France – Great for smaller roads and footpaths (tracks). The footpaths are shown as black lines and the blue line is our journey out from Gordes on the way to Roussillon.

Slack Investor vs Centrelink – My Application for a Commonwealth Seniors’ Health Card (CSHC)

Slack Investor likes the quiet life, and doesn’t usually go looking for trouble, but a recent birthday put me at 67 – this is the age threshold for the Australian Aged Pension. Other than feeling old, this is not too much of a concern as I am a happy self-funded retiree.

However, in a generous flourish, the previous government made it much easier for self-funded retirees to qualify for the Commonwealth Seniors’ Health Card (CSHC). This card provides savings on some Pharmacy costs and gives easier access to higher rates of reimbursement for out of pocket expenses (Medicare Safety Net). Some GP’s will offer bulk-billing to CSHC holders as they can get a higher Medicare fee for these consultations. So, this card looks worth the effort if you qualify and, looking at the new numbers, most retirees not on the pension, would.

Health savings available to CSHC holders – From Laterlifeadvice.com.au

Do you qualify?

Age pension age and an Australian citizen? The critical test is your income … and not just any income … but your “Adjusted income”.

To meet the income test, your “Adjusted Income” must be less than the following:

  • $95,400 a year if you’re single
  • $152,640 a year for couples
  • $190,800 a year for couples separated by illness, respite care or prison.
These values are valid for 2024 and they get inflation adjusted each year

For Slack Investor, it was a matter of gathering scans of our most recent ATO Notice of Assessment for my partner and myself. Plus contacting my Super Provider to send me an income schedule for each of my Pension accounts – These are known as form SA 330 and are often requested for dealing with Centrelink, DVA, etc.

As we do not own an investment property, the only inputs to our Adjusted Income were our taxable incomes and deemed income from our account based pensions.

Any money in our accumulation accounts or bank accounts was not considered in our deemed “Adjustable Income” as a couple.

Noel Whittaker provides a handy calculator to work out your total deemed income from your pension assets (Currently about 2% of assets). I stress it is not the actual income from these pensions that is relevant – but the deemed income! The asset amounts of our pensions (Estimated for the application date – from your super fund or SMSF) were put into Noel’s Calculator. As the total of our deemed pension income plus our taxable incomes was under the $152,640 a year for couples, we proceeded with the application online through MyGov/Centrelink/Make a Claim or Review Claim Status. This is where the fun begins.

Handy Tips

Before applying, get some identification documents ready and your latest ATO Notice of Assessment (in pdf form). Make sure you have a MyGov account and have Centrelink linked to it. I used the online form to apply, and it was frustrating at times, but generally OK. Others have downloaded the form, filled it out and taken it to Centrelink for checking.

  • Contact your Super Funds for a SA 330 schedule that will give you relevant details of any Account-Based Pension that you own for the last tax year.
  • If you have a SMSF, contact your provider and they will furnish you with information on each of your pension funds. You will then have to download and fill out your own SA 330, as a trustee, for each of your income streams.
  • At one of the forms sticking points, I found the video on the application process by Brendan Ryan of Later Life Advice very useful – worth a watch for a 22 minute overview of this process (the video is found in the top left third of the page).

I must warn that this application is not for the feint-hearted – But do not give up! If you are having trouble, book an appointment with Centrelink – They will also check your documents if you are not sure.

The complexities of dealing with Centrelink and the CSHC have been entertainingly documented in the SMH and YourLifeChoices. There were several points where I was having what my mother would describe as “Sailor’s Talk” with my computer.

For all the frustration and “dead ends” encountered during the application process, I found a strategy of “Walk away – and try again another day” did the trick. Although, I will not find out about whether my application will be successful till July 2024, I did learn something useful along the way … How to Edit pdf forms – which came in handy as SMSF trustees have to populate several SA 330 forms with mostly the same data.

Using Google Chrome to fill out PDF forms

I don’t have any form-filling PDF software (e.g. Adobe Acrobat full version) and I am reluctant to install the “free” clients that usually come with some adware or a trial period. I was delighted to find out that this form-filling task can be done in my Chrome browser without installing anything extra. Locate the PDF you want to edit in File Browser.

Right-Click the file to open up the context menu – Scroll down to “Open with” a new dialogue box will open showing Google Chrome if you have it. Select “Google Chrome”.

The form will then open as a Chrome Tab and you can edit away then save or print your changes (Download and Print Symbol at top right of the Chrome tab).

Get your old Photo Albums converted to improved digital images with GIMP … for free

Slack Investor at age 18 near Albany W.A. – Before and After the GIMP treatment

Slack Investor likes to have a rounded life that is full of things that are not finance related. Occasionally, I will write a blog about something that I think is useful that I think that other people can also benefit from.

1975

49 years ago … Cripes! I had just finished High School and a mate and I went of on a Summer car surfing adventure from Melbourne to Western Australia before Uni started. As it turns out, 1975 would have been a good year to start investing … but life is much more rich and exciting than just investing.

Dusting of my old Photo Albums revealed that my memories had deteriorated to the standard below. It must have been the state of the art of photo emulsions in the 70’s.

The first thing to do is to scan the album page with your colour scanner/printer. I wanted to capture as much as I could of the original photos and played around with resolutions on my A4 scanner – as I eventually wanted to throw out the original albums. The scanning resolution that worked best for me was at about 400 dpi. In my case, increasing the resolution did not help the clarity of my original images. The above scan worked out to be about 4 Mb. I labelled the scan “Year Taken”_”Album Name”_”Page #”

I then cropped each individual image by pasting the scanned image into Microsoft Paint – but any photo edit software will do this. I labelled the image “Year Taken”_”Album Name”_”Page #”_”Photo #”

Get the GIMP

Not to be confused with the gimp from Pulp Fiction . Warning: this link is not not for the feint-hearted – Quentin Tarantino can go in a few sick directions!

However, this GIMP is software that is a fantastic cross-platform image editor available for Linux, macOS and Windows. It is free software that can be downloaded here … I used version 2.10.36 … and it can perform miracles!

Open up GIMP and find your individual image, cropped from your photo album, to be transformed . Select File/Open – Then open up the Color/Levels Dialogue box

The magic happens here when you press the “All Channels/Auto Input Levels” Button inside the pop-up Levels Dialogue Box (Below).

A miracle has been performed with one click of a button – and you can save the new image in .jpg format by clicking File/Export as …

There are simple ways to clean up the image of any blemishes … but we have done enough for today. Will have another go at another non-finance instructional post later this year.