Advice for a young man … and June 2023 – End of Month Update

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I was recently delighted when my 14-yr old nephew asked me what I thought he should invest in with his earnings from his part-time jobs.

Firstly, it is a compliment to an old bloke to be asked anything, and secondly, it is testament to the financial maturity of this fine young man that he would be thinking about the world of the share market while still at school.

If he was older and in a steady full-time job I would advise he automate his savings as much as possible and lash into index funds via a platform such as StockspotPearler, Vanguard Personal, or Raiz)

His first investment would be in the order of a few thousand hard-earned dollars from part-time jobs. It is vital that the investment has good prospects and unlikely to lose money over a 5-yr period (no guarantees though!). Given that he would not feel the need to access the money for 5 years (hopefully longer!)

For a first investment, I would add the criteria that it should be a well-known Australian company that might appear in the news occasionally and remind him that he is a part-owner … and an investor!

If he was already 18, it would be “off to the races” and we would immediately set up a broker account in his own name and he would begin to experience the magic of being a shareholder. Being under 18 complicates things a little as minors are not allowed to directly own shares- we need to enlist his parent’s help.

If the parent already has a broker account the best way to start is for the parent to buy the shares on his behalf. When he turns 18, my nephew can start his own account with a broker (e.g. Self Wealth, Commsec, Pearler) and the parent can use an off-market transfer (get the form from the broker) to get the shares into my nephew’s hands as a “gift” including any dividends earned. During this brief holding period, any dividends and any capital gain will count as taxable income in the parents name – but this is a small price to pay to tap my nephew’s enthusiasm.

Alternatively, you could open a broker account in their name (as the trustee for “Nephews name”). The process is a little more complicated and is explained in detail by SelfWealth.

The Nuts and Bolts of Stock Selection

Naturally, I would address this problem in a methodical way and set up a list of Slack owned companies – I couldn’t recommend a company that I didn’t own myself. Some of my favourite stock metrics are gathered from the excellent Market Screener site on the financials page for each stock.

My number one metric for looking at companies is their Return on Equity (ROE), estimated for the year 2024 – Slack Investor is looking forward. This gives me an idea about whether a company is making an investment dollar grow. Higher the better, I start getting curious about a company when ROE is above 15%.

The projected Price Earnings ratio in 2024 is next – I don’t like the P/E Ratio to get above 40, as this indicates the current price of the company is 40 times its earnings (expensive) – but some exceptions are made if the company is growing fast (High ROE). The yield (dividend) is not that important to a young investor, it is the total growth that counts.

StockSymbol2024 ROE2024 P/E2024 YieldPrice 30/06/23% Price below consensus
CSL LtdCSL18%301.5%$277.38-18%
WesfarmersWES30%223.9%$49.34Fair Value
ColesCOL31%223.9%$18.42Fair Value
AltiumALU32%411.9%$36.92-6%
Macquarie BankMQG13%144.2%$177.62-10%
Car SalesCAR10%282.8%$23.82-3%
RealEstate.comREA29%411.3%$143.03-7%
Analysis of some Slack Investor owned stocks using the projected Return on Equity (2024 ROE); price earnings ratio in 2024 (2024 P/E); 2024 Yield; and the current price (30 June 2023); and current discount from the average analyst perceived value – marketscreener.com – Financials Tab

Looking at the figures, even though the stock price of CSL hasn’t really gone anywhere in the last 3 years, it would be my first pick as it is currently 18% below its fair value price (by a consensus of analysts). It is such a strong Australian company that really thinks of the future by continuing to increase its spend on research and development each year.

Wesfarmers (Bunnings, K-Mart, Officeworks, etc) and Coles look OK too because of their high Return on Equity (ROE) – they also have the benefit that you can continually pop in to see how your business is going. Altium has languished in price this last few years but remains a great company for the future – if my nephew was interested in the “tech” space.

This isn’t advice, Unless, of course, you are my nephew!

June 2023 – End of Month Update

The financial year closes and looking at the 12-month charts for FY 2023 – Slack Investor concludes … “It was better than last year”!

Slack Investor remains IN far all followed markets. The ASX 200 (+1.6%) and FTSE 100 (+1.1%) drifted slightly upward for the month. It is boom-time in the US with the S&P 500 rising 6.5%. The US index had moved more than 15% above its stop loss, so I have moved the stop loss upward to 4048.

All Index pages and charts  have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX IndexUK IndexUS Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

Innovation

pizza scissors
Pizza scissors – The new “Must Have” – These highly rated Kitchen Maestro Pizza Scissors were available at Amazon for $12 USD, but sadly, for pre-Christmas shoppers – currently out of stock.

Fish swim, birds fly, humans think, create and innovate. Thinking is not something that people do because we like it, we do it because it is our way of surviving.

José Luis Álvarez – From KnowledgeWorks

An amazing trait that we humans have is the ability to innovate. Slack Investor admires the innovators and the intellectual capital that they bring to businesses. Ideas and research are a vital part of a growth company. Research and Development (R&D) may lead to more efficient production processes or better products that give a company future growth. I have long been a big fan of companies with a high spend on R&D and I am happy to invest in these stocks.

According to the data from EFPIA, in the percentages below, the big spenders are in just a few sectors. The survey looked at 2,500 companies around the world. Technology companies usually have a big R&D budget, but the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry lead by spending 15% of revenue on R&D. NASDAQ figures for specific companies, show R&D expenditure for Google (Alphabet) was 15% of its revenue in 2020, CSL about 11%, and Microsoft 13%. Apple was a relatively low 7% – but they have a very small range of products.

Proportion of Revenue spent on R&D by each Industry sector – EFPIA

Just because a company has a high R&D spend does not always guarantee success. As well of the discovery of ideas that might be useful in the business, a company must be really good at the Incubation, and Acceleration of these ideas. It is important to look for an established record in the way a business brings new products to fruition.

However, there is a broad link between innovation and value. The Boston Consulting Group(BCG) compile a yearly list and map the performance of the 50 most innovative companies. In 2021, they found that the more innovative businesses had an average Total Shareholder Return (TSR) premium of 3.3% over the MSCI World Index.

Most Innovative Companies 2021
Outperformance of the most Innovative companies – From the VisualCapitalist

“If I have 1,000 ideas and only one turns out to be good, I am satisfied.”

Alfred Nobel
Top 10 Most Innovative companies – published in the Visual Capitalist from BCG data.

The full list of top 50 innovators is worth a look and is a reminder that these are the companies that a lot of people interact with every day.

I have been a continual investor in the Betashares NASDAQ ETF (ASX: NDQ) that gives me access many of these great innovative companies. Every time that Slack Investor looks at the businesses that make up the NASDAQ 100, I think that this technology area must be where growth is still happening – and I want to be invested here.

According to GuruFocus the 12-mth forward PE of the NASDAQ 100 is 27 (A bit expensive) but the Return on Equity is at 18% – and growing (This is good).

Slack Investor also owns a slice of the Asian Technology giants with BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASX: ASIA). The heavy hand of Chinese government interference in some tech stocks has led to a pullback in price this year. But I have maintained my holding because Chinese companies like the search engine Baidu, the e-commerce giant Alibaba, and the technology beast Tencent will not be held back for long.

A good compromise, if you want a more whole world approach, is the ETFS Morningstar Global Technology ETF (ASX: TECH). This ETF has holdings distributed across the United States (89.6%), Australia (5.8%), Japan (2.4%), and Germany (2.2%) and has a “moat” filter that will only select companies that have built a competitive advantage around their businesses. All of this for a Management fee of less than 0.5%.

Innovative company shares do not always go up. An example of this is is the new Cathie Wood disruptive innovation stocks ETF – (ARKK). Early investors are very happy, recent investors not. However, with a 3-5 year time frame, exposure to the whole NASDAQ index – the top 100 of the (mostly) great NASDAQ companies must be a good thing.

This is not advice, but if I cant buy pizza scissors for Christmas – I might as well top up with some more NDQ or ASIA, or expand into TECH.

R&B? … No, R&D!

James Brown Performing At The Apollo by New York Daily News Archive
Mr James Brown (1933 – 2006) – an R&B, funk, and soul music legend – “The hardest thing about being James Brown is I have to live. I don’t have no down time” – Image from Rolling Stone

Slack Investor might be showing his age here … but when I think of R&B (Rhythm & Blues), it’s not Drake or The Weeknd that I think of, its “The Hardest Working Man in Show Business” that comes to mind. James Brown had a bit of a trouble in his life but there is no denying his talent and influence – 4 minutes of his genius can be seen here.

The one thing that can solve most of our problems is dancing

James Brown

But I digress, when the dancing is finished, R&D (Research and Development) is another thing that gets Slack Investor attention – especially when it comes to finding a company to invest in. Lets have a look at the world top ten spenders on Research and Development. This quality list of companies is peppered with representation from the tech, pharmaceutical and (electric) car sectors. One of the ways that a company can keep growing is to develop an upstream pipeline of products through research, patenting, and testing. It may take many years before they are released so the companies must be patient and long sighted – not all products in the pipeline will be a success.

Ranking of the 20 companies with the highest spending on R & D in 2018 (in billion U.S. dollars) – From Statista.com

I don’t often read company annual reports as I lack forensic accounting skills and they are usually thick and masterpieces of obfuscation. But, I am usually very impressed when, in the overview, a decent slab of profits are going back into R&D. Slack Investor would rather invest in companies that are constantly innovating, and investing in future products. Only some of these products will yield fruit, but you would hope that these high spending R&D companies would generate bigger profits than those that don’t. Although, this is not always the case! In some cases, the world of R&D can be full of questionable spending, uncertain results.

Even though R&D spending does not guarantee profitability and ever increasing stock prices, there is a correlation- future earnings are positively associated with current R&D.

Commonwealth Serum Laboratories (CSL)

Despite a 20% price fall in the CSL share price in the past 6 months, there is no thought of Slack investor selling this great company. It is one of my “Long Run” stocks. I have often written about share prices fluctuating above and below a “fair value” for a stock . This is just a characteristic of share investing – depending on the mood of the market.

A weekly chart of the CSL share price showing a 20% fall in the last 6 mth -From incrediblecharts.com

CSL is not in the world R&D big spending league in dollar terms. But, in Australia, it is one of our best R&D spenders with almost a billion dollars (US) per year. This amount is very high as a percentage of its revenue, in an environment where a typical manufacturer will spend 1-2%, CSL spending on Research and Development is between 10 to 11 per cent of turnover. Slack Investor thinks this is a good thing and is happy that CSL is occupying a big chunk of his portfolio.

CSL have many products in the R&D pipeline and have a good track record of converting at least some of these products into successful earners. Some other analysts agree and have a target price of $310 on the stock. With current pricing at $253.26 (12 Mar 21) – this smells good!

I taught them everything they know, but not everything I know

James Brown

That’s right James … “Hit it”