Retirement | Slack Investor

The cost of retirement is increasing

A bloke with a barrow of mutilated currency circa 1910

Every quarter, the economic boffins at ASFA (Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia go to the trouble of crunching the numbers on what yearly income they think is required for a “comfortable retirement”. They assume that the retirees own their own home outright and are relatively healthy. In one year, due to inflation, the comfortable retirement amount has increased by 7.6% , or $4920, to $69,691 for a couple (Dec 2022 ).

Comfortable lifestyle (p. a.)	Modest lifestyle (p. a.)
Couple $69,691	Couple $45,106
Single $49,462	Single $31,323

ASFA calculated annual retirement requirements for those aged 65-84 (December quarter 2022) for both “comfortable” and “modest” lifestyles

ASFA’s calculations are very detailed, but notably these annual incomes do not include any overseas travel – depending on your accommodation standards and length of journey, this could easily require another $20K.

Their latest December 2022 report notes that price rises have occurred for most spending categories. In the last four quarters,

Food rose by 9.2%
Bread 13.4%
Meat and seafoods 8.2%
Milk 17.9%
Oils and fats 20.8%
Gas 17.4%
Electricity 11.7%
Household appliances 10.2%
Automotive fuel 13.2%
Domestic travel and accommodation 19.8%
International travel and accommodation 15.9%

ASFA also helpfully calculate a lump sum that you will need to supply this income – with the assumptions that the lump sum is invested (earning more than the cpi) and will be fully spent by age 92. Let’s aim high and just concentrate on the comfortable retirement – the “modest” retirement lump sum amounts are much lower (around $100K) as they assume supplementation from the aged pension.

Savings required for a comfortable retirement at age 67
Couple $690,000
Single $595,000

ASFA calculated lump sum t requirements for those aged 65-84 (December quarter 2022) for a “comfortable” lifestyle

How to Cope with Inflation

There is just one simple way – you must be invested in appreciating assets that keep pace (or exceed inflation). Appreciating assets tend to go up in value over time. This is pretty vague, but if you are unsure about an asset, try and find a price chart over a 10-yr to 20-yr period. If it is going up, it is probably an appreciating asset.

You will always need some amount in cash for day to day requirements and to ride out any investment cycles without the need to cash in your investments at a low point in the cycle.

Knowing the difference between an appreciating and a depreciating asset (e,g cars, furniture, technology equipment, boats, etc) was an important step in Slack Investor’s investing life. I can still remember the day my father gave me “the talk”, that it was OK to borrow money for appreciating assets – I think he was pushing me in the direction of real estate at the time. However, I was not to borrow for a depreciation one i.e. a car, or consumer goods – assets that lose value when you walk out of the shop!

Appreciating Assets

Below is a (not exhaustive) list of appreciating assets. I have left out cryptocurrency deliberately as it has only been traded since 2010, and it is not established yet that it is a long-term appreciating asset.

List of appreciating assets:

Real estate
Real estate investment trust (REIT)
Stocks (Shares) and ETF’s
Bonds
Commodities and Precious Metals
Private Equity
Term Deposits and Savings Accounts
Collectibles e.g. Art

Term deposits and savings accounts might keep pace with inflation (if your lucky!) – but generally do not grow faster than inflation. Slack investor will write about why owning your own home and investing in Stocks (Shares) and ETF’s are his favourite appreciating assets in a later post.

Vanguard Super … and November 2022 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor Hero, Jack Bogle, reflecting in casual ware – on how to keep costs down – New York Times

Jack Bogle created Vanguard as a “penny-pinching” financial powerhouse that was owned by the shareholders of its funds. Vanguard pioneered the low-cost index funds revolution.

The Vanguard Effect

The cost of financial products is important, and Slack Investor does his best to minimise any fees that come with financial transactions. It is not often I get to talk about two of my favourite finance things in one blog. Vanguard, the low-cost fund trendsetter and superannuation.

Vanguard have long been a fund manager and ETF provider that have been at the forefront of lower fees in the finance sector. The term “Vanguard Effect” has been coined to explain the phenomena that when Vanguard competes in an area, the expense ratios from their competitors tend to decrease.

Tracking the average Management Expense Ratio (MER) **for US Index funds** – Vanguard

Vanguard Superannuation in Australia

This month, Vanguard launched into the Australian Superannuation space with a product that is transparent and amongst the lowest fees for an accumulation account. The beauty of their offering is the straight up bundling of all their fees into one simple number – 0.58% of your super balance. Of course, Slack Investor would like a lower management fee – but this is a good start.

0.35% (Administration) + 0.21% (Investment) + 0.02% (Transaction) = 0.58%

The Vanguard MySuper Lifecycle product fees depend on how much Super you have. For a $50,000 balance, the total annual fee would be $290, for a $500,000 balance, the total annual fee would be $2900. The transparency is good – Drag out your own Super annual statement and try to work out your own total fees.

Using the ATO’s comparison of MySuper products tool for a few of the popular industry funds for a $50K balance.

	UniSuper	AustralianSuper	HostPlus	Hesta
5-yr Net Return	6.44%	7.07%	7.58%	6.53%
Annual Fee	$316	$452	$619	$510

Of course, fees are not the only consideration. Many of the Industry funds use some sort of stock picking, and may use private equity to enhance their performance. Vanguard Super is made up of a mixture of index funds. I do like the way that the Vanguard Lifecycle automatically adjusts your exposure to risk as you creep towards retirement. 90% growth assets till age 45, then tapering to below 50% when you reach 60. All this is done automatically by Vanguard.

The adjustment of exposure of the Vanguard Livecycle super between growth and defensive assets as you age – Vanguard

Despite this juicy offering, there is often a lack of engagement of Australian workers with their superannuation. Vanguard will probably have a bit of trouble gaining traction in Australia due to the size and popularity of their industry super competitors. This product is currently only for accumulation accounts at this stage. It is a decent starting point by Vanguard and l0ok forward to details of their pension option (coming soon!). I also am hopeful of a bit of the “Vanguard Effect” to put a bit of pressure on existing superannuation fees – which are still too high.

A note that Slack Investor is not sponsored by Vanguard (or anyone else!), but I own a few of their ETF’s and their original founder, Jack Bogle, is one of the Slack Heroes.

November 2022 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor is now back IN for Australian index shares, UK Index shares and UK Index shares.

Last month’s update describes why I feel glad that my 20-yr index timing experiment is coming to an end in 2024. The frustrating moving out … then quickly back in to my Index funds is getting tiresome. I am likely to become just a “buy and hold” investor for my small portfolio of Index funds.

This month, all markets found there were “Reasons to be Cheerful”. There were positive movements all round. The ASX 200 +6.1%, the FTSE 100 +3.3% and the S&P 500 +5.4%.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Retirement Income

I am hoping that your retirement does not upset as many people as in this James Gillray (1756-1815) painting of “Integrity Retiring From Office”. You can hopefully avoid this by leading a good life and providing yourself with income for this wonderful stage of your life.

There are lots of ways to do this – Slack Investor likes to separate his non-house assets into a Stable Pile and an Investment Pile in his Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF). Most of the commentary on this website has been about the Investment pile as this is the most exciting – and produces the most gains – and lately, the most losses. My Investment pile is volatile as there is greater risk (and opportunity for growth) in this part of the portfolio.

The Stable Pile is mostly to supply me with guaranteed income during the market downturns. Slack Investor’s Stable pile consists of Cash, Term Deposits, An Annuity, Fixed Interest, Real Estate and Bond ETF’s, and some dividend-producing consumer-staple shares.

If the previous financial year has been a good year for investments, my next years annual income requirements can be withdrawn from the investments pile. If you get a bad year for investments, then, I dip into the stable income pile. I try to keep my ratio of Investment Pile to Stable Pile at about 70%:30% and I roughly rebalance at about this time of year (July/August/September).

Using this method, you are always selling from your investments pile when the market is high and buying when the market is low
Slack Investor – A Further look at three pile theory

This method suits Slack Investor, but there are other ways to provide yourself with income in retirement.

Dividends

The well known Australian investor Peter Thornhill, is a great proponent of using dividends to provide retirement income. His MySay articles are well worth a read. Peter maintains that dividends supply an inflation-protected, income that doesn’t vary as much as stock prices do. He supports this strategy by keeping sufficient cash in his superannuation account to fund the next 3 years minimum pension withdrawals (For the Australian superannuation system) – this helps avoid forced selling. The rest of his fund is in Industrials and Listed Investment Companies (e.g. Argo (ARG), Whitefield (WHF)). He has tested his strategy through market cycles and his strategy has been vindicated through the Covid-19 downturn with even some LIC’s using maintained profits to keep dividends going.

Whitefield Ltd is a Listed Investment Company (LIC) that has generally maintained its dividend Per Share (DPS – blue columns) for the past 50 years – even during periods of downturns where the Earnings Per Share (EPS – Red line) of its contributing companies were declining. From Peter Thornhill

Lifetime Annuity Payments

There are many different types of annuity. Annuities have not been very popular in Australia due to their pricing, relative complexity and inflexibility. Challenger has a few of these products available in Australia with rates at September 2022 for a lifetime inflation-protected annuity of $5104 for a 65-yr-old male for every $100000 invested. There are other options for payments that can be either deferred or market linked. Although you can access these annuities directly through their website, the current model that Challenger prefers is access through a financial advisor.

Retirement Income Stream products

Way back in the Australian 2016/17 government budget, Treasury proposed a series of reforms that included removing barriers to innovation in retirement income stream products. This tinkering was brought about by the realisation that the Australian Super model was mostly fit for purpose in the “accumulation” stage – but was lacking in retirement income stream products that address Longevity Risk – the risk of outliving your savings.

Hopefully, with the benefit of compulsory superannuation, most people would have a pile of superannuation money when they retire – and a desire to turn that pile into income (after paying off any debts). Everybody wants to maintain their standard of living in retirement and would prefer something to invest in that would give them the peace of mind of having a guaranteed income stream for life.

At last some new products are staring to emerge from the super funds. Slack Investor was excited to come across the MyPension income stream from Equipsuper. It is a “set-and-forget” investment strategy that nicely mixes a bit of risk assets (to keep your pension fund growing) with more conservative elements (to maintain a more steady income). This fund uses a similar method to the Slack Investor strategy of using “piles” or “buckets”.

To use the Equip MyPension, you would have to roll your existing super into their fund on retirement. Your super is separated into three distinct investment ‘buckets’. The automatic rebalancing of this product would suit those who want to be a bit more “hands off”.

Equip MyPension option for maintaining a retirement income stream.

Cash – For regular income payments, usually comprised of three years income – about 20% of investment.
Conservative – Investments in low risk categories including cash and bonds – about 40% of investment.
Growth – Investments to grow your savings, subject to short term fluctuations – about 40% of investment.

The clever thing is how these buckets work together over time. When investment markets are good, any earnings in the conservative and growth buckets go into the cash bucket, locking in your gains (Automatically). If markets experience a downturn, we’ll leave any buckets that lose value untouched at the end of year, to allow them to recoup losses in future years.
EquipSuper MyPension

Slack investor has just two piles for his retirement – the Stable Income pile (Cash and Conservative) option and an Investments pile- and I do my own annual rebalancing. My investment pile is a bit more aggressive than the EquipSuper offering – more volatile, but Slack Investor likes to meddle and, is developing a “strong stomach”.

Ride Your Own Bike

Like Sally, one day the realization will come that your best interests rely on you steering your own bike – in the direction that you want to go!

The ultimate goal is to get your three substantial piles going – house, income and investments. But before any of this happens you have to develop a mindset … I want to be in control of my financial life.

You must gain control over your money or the lack of it will forever control you. —
Dave Ramsey – Author of The Total Money Makeover

If you don’t take control, perhaps you’re plan is to take all your affairs to a financial adviser one day. Most people will feel the need for financial advice at some stage but only 20% of Australians have a financial advisor. The current structure makes getting advice a difficult step – and it’s not the financial advisors fault.

The pricing problem of Financial Advice in Australia

64% of survey participants agreed that financial advisers were too expensive.
ASIC Survey August 2019 – Financial advice: What consumers really think

The Australian Government passed a piece of legislation known as the Future of Financial Advice (FoFA) in 2012. FoFA was a series of laws that were supposed to improve the quality and transparency of financial advice. One of the main purposes was banning conflicted remuneration – where advisers were recommending products that gave them good commissions. While FoFA and the Hayne Royal Commission were well intended and vital in restoring some trust in the sector – there have been some unintended consequences.

(The Financial Services Royal Commission) identified the problem of conflicted remuneration without providing a mass market solution.
Graham Hand, Firstlinks – FoFA, the Failure of Financial Advice

There has been a huge rise in regulatory red tape and the associated compliance costs for financial planners. A combination of these costs, the big banks dumping their financial advice arms, and the need for upgraded qualifications has put this sector in crisis. The total number of licenced advisers is set to drop by a third in the next few years.

There is broad recognition that financial advisors have expertise that the normal punter does not have. However, the biggest barrier to getting financial advice is the expense. One of the big problems is that when you engage a financial advisor, they are obligated to present you with a full Statement of Advice (SOA). On the surface this makes sense, the client would want a document that takes into account your own circumstances and outlines the fees and risks of each strategy. However, according to one planner, the SOA has turned into pages of jargon, repeated disclosure and boring generic graphs. These statements are weighty tomes that take many hours to prepare. Sadly, they seem to confuse the actual advice and provide no real value to the client.

A full Statement of Advice (SOA) runs over 100 pages and the need to review all circumstances and develop a plan takes 10 to 15 hours and costs between $3,000 and $5,000 depending on complexity.
Graham Hand, Firstlinks – FoFA, the Failure of Financial Advice

From FirstLinks – FoFA, the Failure of Financial Advice, Take 2

James Kirby from The Australian uses the example of paying annual adviser fees fees of $3000 and he supposes that the structured advice that you receive will match the 4.3% pa return of the new Magellan retirement income product Magellan FuturePay (FPAY). He points out that for an investment of $500 000 and an expected FPAY return of $21 500, your advice fees would be 14% of your earnings. This does not make sense to him … or Slack Investor.

James Kirby suggests that a better model for the regulators to adopt would be that you could approach a financial adviser for advice that you need at the time … and pay the financial adviser for this “niche” advice. This is not possible under current legislation.

Take charge

So, with full service financial advice gravitating towards high net wealth clients, what is the average punter supposed to do? Robo-advisors such as Stockspot could be part of the solution. This automated service can provide help with allocation of assets other services that will suit your age and risk profile. But there are so many more financial questions you might want to handball to your financial adviser if you could afford one. Well, if you can’t … it’s up to you.

Decide what you want to achieve in the finance sense. Go through the savings basics and get your savings rate up. Take charge on where your money goes, get your superannuation set, reduce any unnecessary fees that you are paying, set a target on your financial piles.

Educate yourself on things financial. There are some great books. The Barefoot Investor is an excellent start. Some fabulous podcasts The Australian Finance Podcast will get you going and there are heaps of other Slack Investor favourites. Get involved and start to enjoy the immense freedom and satisfaction of riding your own bike.

Happiness is not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

A Further look at three pile theory … and May 2021 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor presented his version of a bucket strategy – The “Three Pile Theory”. It is the three pillars of a House, Stable Income, and Investments that have supported me through most of my working life and now the three piles are still supporting me in early retirement.

These piles have been continually interacting with each other as I was trying to build them all up. At the start, the Prince of all piles was a good income and, as I have very poor entrepreneurial skills, the key for me to get a good income was to have a good education. I was lucky enough to have parents that encouraged me to go as far as my wit would take me.

Without education you’re not going anywhere in this world
Malcolm X

When originally talking about three pile theory, I glossed over the retirement phase and how the investment and stable income piles can keep you going … hopefully, for a long time. By retirement, if possible your house will be paid off – and this will be left as a dormant house pile which keeps giving back in lots of ways … but only as a last resort will you use it to fund your lifestyle in retirement!

Lets do the sums on just two piles – Your Retirement Fund

Consider a retirement fund with just two piles – Stable Income and Investments. In order to generate 4% of income per year, you need have most of your retirement fund in investments rather than stable income. According to his two pile theory, Rob Berger from Forbes Magazine recommends that you should have between 50% and 75% of the retirement fund in the investments pile 0f equities (stocks). Decide on a ratio of stable income to investments that you can sleep well with – a higher amount investments will mean potentially more growth … but definitely more volatility.

A bit of mathematics here … my original ratio of house:stable income:investments was 30%:20%:50%f Net Worth. When taking my house out of the calculations, my ratio of Stable Income: Investments is about 30%:70% – this is just the numbers that I am comfortable with.

My original plan was to use dividends and interest from the two piles of my retirement fund to give me income. That means taking out money from both piles every year – even when stock markets have fallen. Rob Bergen points out that this is exactly the wrong approach. Taking dividends out reduces the investments pile – it has the same effect on your investments pile as if you sold some of your stocks. In a down-trending stock market, for your long-term investments pile, you want to use those dividends to reinvest in a stock market that is undervalued.

(Using the traditional bucket strategy), assets are taken from (Investments) when market prices have fallen, which is exactly when dividends should be reinvested.
Rob Berger – outlining the folly of taking money out of your Investments account when the market is falling.

How to make your piles last in retirement phase – Rebalancing the Retirement Fund

This heading has Slack Investor lapsing into what my mother called “Plumber’s Humour”. Using the Rob Berger simple strategy, you maintain your piles. Even though you have the competing interests of wanting to withdraw annual amounts for a great lifestyle, and yet, keeping enough in your retirement fund to generate future income for many many years. There are lots of articles on buckets to fund your retirement but, it can get complicated – I really like the clarity of Rob Berger’s approach. He explains in detail how the traditional bucket strategy is flawed.

By the time you retire, you will have a good idea of your expenses, While you are healthy and fit, add a good chunk of income to fund some travel. At the start of the financial year, this amount gets withdrawn to your cash account to fund yearly living expenses. The remainder is your retirement fund comprising of Stable Income pile (Annuities/Bonds/Term Deposits/Fixed Interest) and Investments pile. Slack Investor is happy with 70% of his Retirement Fund in Investments (Equities/Stocks).

Set up a ratio of Stable income: Investments in Your Retirement Fund that you are happy with and take your annual expenses out of the pile that is over allocated at the end of the year. In the above case, Investments.

In a good year for investments (outlined above) your next years annual income requirements can be withdrawn from the investments pile. If you get a bad year for investments, then dip into the stable income pile. Take out enough from each pile so that after your yearly expenses withdrawal, the initial allocations are roughly intact – I should do some algebra here to make this easier … but you can do it for your homework!

Using this method, you are always selling from your investments pile when the market is high and buying when the market is low – masterful investing, Warren Buffet would approve!

May 2021 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.

There were modest rises in all followed overseas markets (S&P 500 +0.6%, and the FTSE 100 +0.8%). The Australian stock market is powering on (ASX 200 +1. 9%) despite Slack Investor and the state of Victoria being in a (hopefully only one week!) COVID inspired lock down. All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).

Two Very Important Numbers

There are many numbers to note in finance world – Fees, Investment returns, etc. However, there are two extremely important numbers when it comes to financial independence. Both are percentages and the first one is the 4% “rule of thumb” and the second is your savings rate.

The 4% Rule

All followers of finance blogs would have heard of this often quoted “rule” Slack Investor acknowledges that this magic number is arguable and depends on individual circumstances but, it is an excellent way to estimate how much you will need to retire. The 4% rule is a way to “roughly” link assets with income. For example, as an estimate, if you would like to generate a $40 000 yearly income, you would need to have investments assets of $1 000 000 to earn this income using the 4% rule (4% of $1 000 000 = $40 000).

Another way of looking at this 4% rule is that you need to save 25 x your annual spending for your retirement fund so it can generate an income to cover your spending. So, if you spend $30 000 a year, you need a portfolio of $750 000 (25 x $30 000). To get an idea about what your expenses are it is important that you track them over a year using a spreadsheet or finance software. If necessary, this investment income can always be supplemented by a government pension or a part-time job.

Bill Bengen originally came up with this “4% safe withdrawal rate” in 1994. He developed it by backtesting a conservative US portfolio with data dating back to 1920 and tried to get a safe withdrawal rate that would generate an income for at least 30 years. He is the first to admit that the 4% number was always treated too simplistically and has since updated the rate to be closer to 4.5%.

Slack Investor is a bit old fashioned in liking to hold on to most of the capital that is earning the money and has a flexible approach to how much to extract from investments each year. In a good year for the stock markets, I am happy to dig deep into the investments pile – using dividends, distributions and even some capital gains as income. When the market performs poorly, it is more complicated and I have to dip into my stable income pile. Most of the Slack fund is in Australian Investments and in 2021, the Australian Index has a 12-month forward dividend yield of 3.5% . Hopefully, the shares will also increase in value over time. Over the past 10 years, Australian shares had a total return of almost 7% – with growth shares you can aim higher, but prepare for volatility. In the good years, I will also take out a bit of capital gain for extra spending. All of this is in addition to the stable income component of my investments.

Your Savings Rate

“Wealth consists not in having great possessions but in having few wants.”
Epicetus

Using the 4% rule we estimate how much will give us a sustainable retirement. But there is another number to add to our arsenal.

Just as in Lord of the Rings there is ” one ring to rule them all…”, there is also one “percentage” to rule them all in the Financial Independence world – and that is the Savings Rate percentage.

The annual expenses is critical here as this is the figure you are trying to generate out of investment income. Lets have a look at the effect that savings rate has on the number of years that you have to work until you can sustainably generate your expenses from your investments. The table below is from the great financial blogger Mr Money Mustache. There are a few assumptions used to generate this table

Your investments earn 5% after inflation
You can live from the “4% safe withdrawal rate” after retirement.

Here’s how many years you will have to work for a range of possible savings rates, starting from a net worth of zero:

Table from “The Shockingly Simple Math Behind Early Retirement” – From the one, the only, Mr Money Mustache

At a saving rate of 10% you will have to work for over 50 years – we have to do better than that! There are some pretty heroic savings rates amongst financial bloggers e.g Aussie Firebug 61%; Dividends Down Under 61%; I have admiration for these savings rates and note that these bloggers are in a hurry to get to financial independence – and retire early. At 60% savings you can retire after 12.5 years of working and saving – but that sounds pretty hard.

Slack Investor was on a much slower train and lucky that he quite enjoyed his job – and didn’t mind spending 30 years saving for his retirement. I have always been a good saver but, when looking at my past savings rates, it was usually around the 30-40% level and, some years had dropped down to 20%. Raising a family and holidays are a delightful interference with savings and you just have to find a balance. In Australia, we have compulsory superannuation which currently adds a welcome 9.5 % to your savings rate.

A beautifully presented calculator at Networthify shows how the savings rate works and gives a yearly breakdown. It also shows some interesting OECD statistics for average National savings rates (e.g. The US 6%, and India 32%). The aim is to eventually save enough money to invest in a way that you average (at least) 5% return on your investments after infation. If you withdraw from this retirement pool at the rate of 4% and have enough to cover 100% of your expenses – you become financially independent – the retirement pool keeps on giving!

Automate your savings

One of the best financial habits that I formed was to take the thinking out of saving and set up automatic recurring transfers from my work money to my savings or investment accounts – Pay Yourself First. I also took full advantage of “concessional contributions” to my super account which were taxed at 15% rather than my then marginal rate of 37%.

So, automate your savings. Investment returns are important and we hope that we can exceed the 5% after inflation returns that the above table and 4% rule are based on. However, the number you have most control over is your savings rate – and that is most important.

Household Comfort … and March 2021 – End of Month Update

The couch seems to be looking good for some, but not for others. ME Bank have updated the annual Household Financial Comfort Index that surveys 1,500 Australians every year to get an idea of how Australia is travelling in a money sense. Slack Investor was surprised at the research results which revealed that over the past six months, to December 2020, the “financial comfort” of Australian households has reached a record high of 5.89 out of 10. This index is 5% higher than before COVID-19! However, it is full-time workers that report the highest financial comfort across the workforce.

*The changes in the Household Financial Comfort Index since 2012 (Scores out of 10) –* ME *Household Financial Comfort Report* 2020

The high financial comfort can probably be linked with some households going into “savings mode” as the uncertainty caused by COVID-19 on the economy, and the very high levels of government support.

Although, not everyone feels the same after a year of COVID-19. About 30% of households said that their financial situation has worsened. Clubs, pubs, gyms, air transport, restaurants, education, and the creative arts were hit particularly hard – with the cohorts of casual workers and adults under 24 shouldering the burden of Coronavirus disproportionally.

Household Response to the Pandemic

*The main method that households used to ease the financial burden during COVID 19 (Columns %) and the line showing level of financial comfort associated with each method –* ME *Household Financial Comfort Report* 2020

The main ways that households chose to ease the effects of the pandemic were 1. Dipping into savings (14%); 2. JobKeeper payments (Govt. wage subsidy) (11%); 3. Superannuation withdrawal (9%); 4. Delaying bills (7%). With JobKeeper payments having now ended, the raid on super halted, and the other main methods likely exhausted, it looks like a tipping point is approaching.

“And, at $90 billion, (JobKeeper) it’s the single largest economic support program that any Australia government has ever undertaken.”
Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg – ABC News

The Australian government’s massive JobKeeper program ending is likely to cause a big rupture in the economy with many small businesses who have, till now, been just “hanging on “. Many of these businesses are likely to cease trading. For employees, Treasury estimates that up to 150,000 workers will move from JobKeeper into unemployment.

Financial Cushion

With tough times ahead, there will be many who would wish for a financial cushion. Slack Investor has often banged on about the need for an emergency fund of cash that will help when one of life’s inevitable bits of bad new turns up. In December 2020, about one in five households reported virtually no, or very low, amounts of cash savings (<$1000).

How much in cash savings does your household currently hold – including savings accounts, term deposits and offset accounts? – ME *Household Financial Comfort Report* 2020

As for the pandemic effect on retirement savings, the reality of individual super balances is starting to bite with the report revealing that only around 18% of households expect to fund retirement with their own superannuation and 42% expecting to use both private savings and the government pension.

“Financial comfort levels are up for now, but many households
are on the cliff’s edge. They’ve lost income, their jobs and entire
livelihoods, their wafer-thin savings buffer is dwindling, and government support is the main action stopping them from falling over.”
Household Financial Comfort Report – 2020 ME Bank survey –

March 2021 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100. All Slack Investor followed markets this month had solid rises (ASX 200 +1.8%; FTSE 100 +3.5%; S&P 500 +4.2%).

In these uncertain times, especially with the high prices on the US market, I am monitoring my index funds weekly and if, at the end of the week my Index funds are below the stop loss, then I will put a post on the blog and sell at the next opportunity. All Stop Losses are Live.

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

Three Pile Theory

– Adapted from ‘Three Mounds’ by Yoko Ono is displayed at the Serpentine Gallery on June 18, 2012 in London, England – From Getty Images.

With apologies to Yoko for interfering with her art, but Slack Investor first thought of his own “Three Pile Theory” back in 1989 when I had got myself a “Proper Job” and enough stability in my life to make the big plunge into Real Estate. At that time, I owned a few grains of dirt in my House pile (the Bank owned the rest), My income was OK, and my investments (which would later morph into the Slack Fund) contained a few thousand dollars in shares.

Now, 32 years later, Slack Investor still has these three financial pillars to keep himself steady.

House – Home ownership gives me great security and pleasure. The bank owned most of this 30 years ago – but now I have the upper hand! (~30% of Net Worth)
Stable Income – This used to be my job, but in retirement I have some stable income annuity style investment (~20% of Net Worth) that would pay my bills and maintain a basic Slack Lifestyle should Armageddon befall the stock markets for a few years. This income is supplemented by income from the Slack Portfolio.
Slack Portfolio Investments – (~50% of Net Worth) – Now currently in my Self Managed Super fund (SMSF) which is almost exclusively invested in growth companies. These are great businesses to be invested in if you have a long term horizon – however, stock prices can be volatile in these high Return on Equity (ROE) companies. I am currently retired and do not rely on the Slack Portfolio for stable income. Because of the stability of my other two pillars, I can be quite aggressive in the allocation of my investments in the Slack Portfolio – as I know I will not have to panic sell (for income) during any downturn.

Slack Investor didn’t really invent “Pile theory” – it has been around for a while in various guises – Three Buckets is a tried and true way to manage your retirement expenses by dividing your retirement stash into buckets of cash, conservative investments and more risky, growth investments.

House

My home may not feel like a palace to you, but to me, it is a whole Kingdom.
Prerona Chatterjee

There are some who argue that you are financially better off by renting over a 10-year period rather than buying. But for Slack Investor, the tax advantages – no capital gains tax on your own home in Australia; the leverage – banks are usually willing to lend at least 80% of the house value; the forced saving – your mortgage payment is a big monthly portion of your income which you set aside for a long period; and, the stability provided by home ownership make this a clear winner for me. “The Serenity” is just a bonus.

Stable Income

To cover living expenses and to give yourself “peace of mind” it is so important to have a slab of money that is not subject to the vagaries of the sharemarket. In Australia, if you haven’t enough super to go independently, you might qualify for a full or part pension.

If going the fully self-funded route, many advisors recommend your stable income should be in two parts. You should work out your living expenses for a year and then keep between 2 and 5 years worth of expenses in stable cash deposits – Let’s start with 3 years of expenses in accessible cash. The rest of you stable income pile can be in longer term cash deposits, bonds or REITS. Because the investments pile (Slack Portfolio) is in growth shares that can be very volatile, my stable income must be something that is not highly correlated to to the sharemarket.

Term Deposits– although interest rates are woefully low now on bank term deposits, it is still possible to get ~1% p.a. from some of the minor banks that still have the Government Guarantee for the first $250 000.

Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest Index ETF (VAF)

MER (0.20%) – Annual performance over 1/5 years – (3.81%/4.41%)

Vanguard Australian Government Bond Index ETF (VGB)

MER (0.20%) – Annual performance over 1/5 years – (4.08%/4.49%)

Challenger Fixed Term Annuity – Rates are pretty low at the moment, locking away a deposit for 5 years will earn a measly 1.65%.

Real Estate or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) – these are a bit higher up the risk curve but as they produce income (rent) and can be associated with longer term leases – are usually less volatile than the share market. For example, Vanguard Australian Property Securities Index ETF (VAP) – MER (0.23%) – Annual performance over 1/5 years – (-13.3%/6.23%)

Investments – The Slack Fund

Because the Slack Portfolio is mostly in growth shares, I have steeled myself that this particular pile is volatile and changes value every day. I am prepared for a few low performing (or even negative) years in a row for this pile. Even great investors that have much more knowledge than Slack Investor have the occasional bad year – during some periods, share investments just perform poorly. I am accepting of this truth.

Because this Investment pile is mostly in my Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF), I am usually obliged to withdraw 4% of its total value each year – this percentage increases with age – but this payment is currently tax free for those over 60. I can use this income in a discretionary way. My living expenses should be covered by income from the Stable Income pile – and any other income is gravy.

Pile Rebalancing

Once you are in a house that you are happy in and hopefully will be near paying off any outstanding loans as you get into retirement – other than maintenance, you can leave this pile alone.

The Stable Income cash pile might occasionally need a bit of topping up from the longer term stable Income or Investments fund. Any dividend or interest income from your investments is fair game. The investment Slack Fund usually produces 2 -3% income.

Hopefully, with 3-years worth of living expenses in the stable income pile, you can ride out a few bad years in the share market and only sell shares to top up the stable income pile when the share market has had a good run. Ideally, you would only sell share assets out of this pile when the share market is above the long term trend line. However, realistically, from the chart below (in red) there are long periods when the market is below trend. Have no fear, your basic expenses are always covered by a mixture of stable income, interest and dividends.

The long term chart of the US S&P 500 with the dotted inflation-adjusted long term trend line – from seeitmarket.com

There are other piles worthy of attention such as Health and Relationships but the finance stuff is necessary too. So get the shovel out … and start working on those piles!

Golden Triangle of Happiness … and December 2020 – End of Month Update

After just going through a Christmas period where, in these COVID-19 times, I was lucky enough to spend time with some family – I was struck with an unusual contentment. It is easy to get bogged down with the day to day challenges of life, but Slack Investor occasionally gets self reflective and has long realised that he is a happy bloke. This state is much sought after and it often doesn’t naturally happen. A recent publication that has lodged in my tiny brain is the Australian Wellbeing Index. This research has been conducted twice a year over the last 15 years and involves more than 60,000 participants.

Personal wellbeing appears to increase with age, with some of the happiest Australians aged 65 and over.
Australian Wellbeing Index – 2019 Joint Research between Deakin University and Australian Unity.

The latest instalment of one of Australia’s largest wellbeing surveys has found that, besides genetics, there are three simple indicators of a happy life. Financial security, a sense of purpose in life, and good personal relationships make up the “golden triangle” of happiness. The full report can be found here.

well-being2 — Source: thenewdaily.com.au

Financial Security

This is really what this blog posts mostly about – so I wont expand too much here. But if you feel that you are in control of your money then you can avoid many of the financial stresses. While having money does not make you happy, if you don’t have any, it can make you miserable. Not surprisingly, the survey found that the feeling of wellbeing gradually rises for household earnings up to about $100,000 a year. Surprisingly, earnings over this point found the relationship between happiness and wealth drops off dramatically.

Relationships

… the people who fared the best were the people who leaned into relationships, with family, with friends, with community,”
Dr. Robert Waldinger , Harvard University

We are humans and (mostly) social creatures – a sharing of your life and having someone who cares about you makes you feel better about yourself. A Harvard study that has been going for 80 years found that people who are more socially connected to family, friends, or community are “happier, they’re physically healthier and they live longer than people who are less well connected,”

“It doesn’t need to be a sexual relationship, but it needs to be an emotionally intimate relationship where you can share troubles and sorrows and joys,”
Prof Bob Cummins, Deakin University

Sense of Purpose

Something to do … your get up in the morning and you have a project, part time job, volunteering, exercise, a hobby – but it is something! People are happier when they are active.

But, beyond the “golden triangle” of happiness, there are other approaches – Rather than take on each corner of the triangle, just try to just make little micro changes to your life – Perhaps a little more exercise, or contact an old friend …

An older friend once pointed out to me that we were lucky enough to have choices with our lives. He stressed our limited life span and suggested I make a list of the things that I really liked doing – and then try to engineer my life to maximise these good things and then minimise the other, less enjoyable. but necessary stuff. When you collect all the moments that make you happy … you might just … be happy!

Spend more time with people you like, get outdoors a bit more, listen to some music, have some new experiences, help other people …
“Happiness thinker” Professor Paul Dolan

December 2020 – End of Month Update

Slack Investor remains IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100. All Slack Investor followed overseas markets this month had rises (ASX 200 +1.1%; FTSE 100 +3.1%; S&P 500 +3.7%).

I still remain nervous about the US market with its high valuations. The closing value of the S&P 500 (3756) is now 18% above the current stop loss at 3200. If the margin gets to 20% (UPR LIMIT 3840)), then I will find a place to move my stop loss upward. In these uncertain times, I will monitor my index funds weekly and if, at the end of the week my Index funds are below the stop loss, then I will put a post on the blog and sell at the next opportunity. All Stop Losses are Live.

S&P 500 Monthly chart December31 2020- From incrediblecharts.com

All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.

Retirement sweet spot – a place to live is a good start!

Slack Investor has thought a lot about retirement – a lot!

Even though I liked most aspects of my jobs, the thought of doing what I want each day was most appealing. I read quite a few blogs on financial independence and they seem to fall into two main types. The “retire at 30” types and the “building of financial skills to gradually gain financial independence” types. Slack Investor is definitely in the latter camp and, without outside help, or big slabs of luck, I can’t really see a way of avoiding the 25-35 years of work to build up your funds before you then launch your retirement.

This post sets out with two of the building blocks to retirement – a home and some superannuation. You might be just starting your working life, or be in your forties and thinking … “Well, how do I get to my retirement from here?”

The recent Australian government Retirement Income Review emphasised that if your are renting in retirement then things are tough.

In retirement, renters have higher levels of financial stress. A significant proportion of retiree households that rent are in income poverty …”
The Australian Treasury Retirement income Review (2019)

Get a Roof

So take the advice of Flo Rida and Slack Investor and make it a big priority in your life to own a place to live. I know this seems like an impossibility to many as the cost of houses in Australia is eye -watering in the big cities. However, the place you want to own might be an apartment or, it doesn’t have to be in a capital city – it can be in one of the many fantastic regional towns!

From Australia’s most liveable regional cities. Not sure why “Distance to Alcohol” is a criteria – or what it means … might be good … might be bad!- but this is a nice selection of great Australian towns.

When you have found a place that you could retire to, the next step is to get yourself into the property market by saving for a deposit and buying a place. There will now be 30 years of pain … and then you own it! But, at least you have borrowed money for a “hopefully” appreciating asset. Make sure that any property you buy makes good sense – Schools, Transport, Parks, Shops, etc.

Another way to do this is “rentvesting”. This an option where you rent your place to live near your work while your are buying a place that you might want to retire to one day. Rentvesting makes sense when the costs to rent a place is cheaper than the buying costs (Loan Interest/Rates/Stamp Duty, etc). While you are renting in a share house or apartment the extra rental income from the property you own, and tax incentives, will allow you to use any surplus funds to invest in a share portfolio. Rentvesting can also increase your borrowing power and hopefully get a better property – Just don’t over extend yourself.

Get some Super

According to Investblue, in 2018, as boomers are retiring, the average retirement super balance in Australia for men is $270,710, and for women $157,049. This is not really enough, but an “average couple” would have over $400000. Things should get better as compulsory super has only been with us since 1991 . Boomers have had many advantages during a period of rapidly increasing asset prices – but compulsory superannuation over their whole working life was not one of them.

If you are relatively healthy and own your home outright, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) have estimated the annual retirement income required for a modest and comfortable lifestyle.

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) retirement standards for 2018

Using the average figures, there is a big gap between existing super saved and a comfortable lifestyle

80% of retirees fund their retirement years with a combination of superannuation and the age pension
Money Magazine June 2018

It is worth some study into how the pension and superannuation systems interact. The bare minimum to aim for is the “sweet spot” where under current rules, home owning couples can have $400000 in superannuation (singles $300000) and still qualify for the full government pension. Using this mix of super and the pension, when reaching the pension qualifying age of 67, a modest to comfortable retirement is possible under current rules.

Situation	Superannuation	Drawdown from Super @ 5%	Age Pension	Total Income
Single Home-owner	$300,000	$15,000	$19,210	$34,212
Couple Home-owner	$400,000	$20,000	$33,272	$53,272

Table from Realize Your Dream and based upon 2018 values

This “sweet spot” is our first “port of call” in super terms, and meant to demonstrate that if you own your own home and have a good chunk of super … then you are going to be OK in retirement.

Slack Investor hopes that you have got onto the idea of financial independence a bit earlier than aged 40. By starting to plan in your twenties or early thirties, you can aim to fund your own retirement … and, perhaps not wait until you are 67.