A few times a year, Slack Investor likes to take a snapshot of the markets using the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE) which use ten-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. I first started using CAPE as a “value” tool in September 2021 and, my most recent look was for the end of January 2024. I have decided to do this CAPE market value analysis every few months.
Jeremy Grantham is a well known and astute investor and he argues that recent globalization has benefited the profitability of US companies and that their is good reason for an increasing CAPE trend in the US markets. However, there is some good research that links CAPE to future returns.
The CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE) ratio is not a useful timing signal for market turning points, but is a powerful predictor of long-term market returns
By plotting this CAPE over a period of time, we can look at how the whole sharemarket is currently valued in terms of historical data – this way we can track the whole share market as it oscillates between overvalued and undervalued. According to Research Affiliates, CAPE offers a negative correlation with subsequent 10-year and 20-year stock market returns – the higher the current CAPE, the lower are the expected future returns.
For the following charts, I use monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the latest CAPE values – up till the end of May 2024. A “fair value” zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average) – click images for better resolution.
The US market remains the outlier here at 37% above its long-term value. Slack Investor is no guru, but, it doesn’t make sense to him to invest new money into a “frothy” whole-market index like the S&P 500 – at the moment!
ASX 200 Value (4% above long-term value)
FTSE 100 Value (4% below long-term value)
S&P 500 Value (37% above long-term value)
Slack Greetings from Provence – plus Navigational Tips
Evening view of the Luberon Valley, from Bonnieux, Provence. France
Slack Investor is in Europe at the moment (Boo … Hiss!), I have just finished a walking holiday in Provence, France. All I can say is that – it is a beautiful part of the world.
Steeped in history and preserved in that remarkable French way that respects the past. We moved around the intricate roads and paths using a fantastic bit of Android/IOS/Windows software called Komoot. The software is free to download on your phone with one local region – and, I added world maps for a one-time lifetime fee of $30 USD about 10 years ago – It was the best money I have ever spent, as I use the app daily. You can plot “tours” that are based upon the comprehensive “Open Street Maps” network which lists all the tiny paths and tracks that rarely appear in Google Maps. The output is best used on your phone – but the app is easier to plan using the desktop version of your Komoot account. I have no financial interest in any of the products that Slack Investor sometimes rambles on about.
Google Maps output for the area 5km east of Gordes, Provence, France – great for roads and business locationsKomoot output for the area 5km east of Gordes, Provence, France – Great for smaller roads and footpaths (tracks). The footpaths are shown as black lines and the blue line is our journey out from Gordes on the way to Roussillon.
After narrowing down my personal buying list to just 5 stocks – BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (NDQ), Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX), Technology One (TNE), Supply Network (SNL) and REA Group(REA), Slack Investor is always keen to get a second opinion – and that’s where the “fish whisperers” come in.
At this stage, I have so far bought into just one of the prospects (TLX) as, I’m hoping for a bit of a price contraction in the other stocks over the June/July period. I am not in a particular hurry to buy – as there has been recent news of “Interest cuts delayed” that might present a bit of downward pressure on stocks.
Sometimes, it makes sense to listen to the “Fish Whisperers” – those with special knowledge of the stock market. One of the financial sites that I will always look at for ideas is Livewire. Slack Investor is a subscriber to their free financial news email – just register with them. There is nothing more that I like than to saddle up to the hard work of financial experts – the hard thing, of course, is sifting through the chaff, for the wheat. But there are ways of identifying quality information – Do their methods echo with your own sound thoughts?
Let’s first have a look at Michael’s established record. He helped set up a Medallion Australian Equities Growth Fund in March last year, so there is only limited data on performance as there is a short track record. The fund growth since inception is very good (net 12-mth performance (+17.69%) – c.f ASX 200 (+10.68%) – but you would have to say that these are “early days”. Consistent long term fund performance is notoriously hard with 75% of Australian Mid to Small Cap funds underperforming the index over 10 years.
Medallion charges a management fee of 1.5% plus an outperformance fee of 20% (Oooohhh … that hurts!!) – but in fairness, their net results are, so far, exceptional – and their methodology of screening stocks looks fundamentally sound.
Long Term Compounders
These are three of the most beautiful words to Slack Investor – they exactly describe the type of stocks that I want to own. A stock that will generate growth over the long term. Let’s have a more detailed look at how the Medallion Financial Group approaches this search for long term compounders.
A consistent compounder is essentially a business that’s able to deliver consistent or persistent earnings and revenue growth over time in a reliable nature. So these are businesses that are price makers, not price takers
Michael Wayne prepared the list by screening the whole ASX for companies that have a five-year sales Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of above 5%, and a CAPE 10-year CAGR of more than 5%. Slack Investor is happy to have a further look at all of these companies.
These businesses also have a dividend per share CAGR over 10 years of more than 5%, five-year average gross margins above 10% and a five-year average return on equity over 10%. Yes Michael … keep up this research – as this is the sort of stuff that makes Slack Investor swoon!
May 2024 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.
There is a bit of end of Financial year calm with the ASX 200 (+0.5%). The FTSE 100 (+1.6%) is moving on and, in a moment that seems to celebrate ex-President Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 counts of falsifying business records, the S&P 500 moves on (+3.7%).
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
After the excitement of catching a fish there is the relatively unpleasant process of gutting the fish before things get exciting again – the cooking and the eating!
Same with stocks, the financial media is full of “darling” stocks. However, Slack Investor likes to take a deep look into the entrails before parting with his precious funds for the glorious pleasure of share ownership. The data gathering is not the most exciting part of investing and Slack Investor likes to keep things simple here – and finds the best way to sort out the worthy fish is to put them on a list with a few relevant numbers ” the guts”.
The companies that Slack Investor did a bit of research on is not definitive … I usually look into my own portfolio first to see if the investment case still stands … and, if the company has been performing well, I like to add to my holding.
The newer stocks come from a variety of sources – usually the financial press. I tend to stay away from mining and retail stocks because of the uncertainties present in these sectors. As these potential buys are a replacement for my largest portfolio member, Altium (Potential Takeover target), I have concentrated on the “growth stocks” The first screening is for growth using the CAGR and the ROIC.
Gather the Data
I have put all my prospective BUYS in a list
Company
Ticker
ROIC 23
CAGR 3-yr
Alphabet (US)
GOOGL
24
19
Altium Ltd
ALU
23
13
Audinate
AD8
12
32
Car Group
CAR
7
25
Cochlear Ltd
COH
17
14
Codan Ltd
CDA
14
9
CSL Ltd
CSL
10
13
Dicker Data
DDR
16
4
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd
FPH
14
8
Microsoft (US)
MSFT
29
14
NextDC
NXT
-133
22
NVIDEA Corp (US)
NVDA
66
54
Pro Medicus
PME
50
30
REA Group Ltd
REA
20
16
Resmed
RMD
15
13
Seek Ltd
SEK
-1
-8
Supply Network
SNL
24
23
Technology One
TNE
30
13
Telix Pharmaceuticals
TLX
35
380
WiseTech
WTC
60
24
Xero
XRO
-5
23
The list needs a bit of narrowing down so I applied a filter to reduce the field to a top 10. I refined the list to those companies that have a historical ROIC of greater than 20% and a 3-yr CAGR of greater than 12% – this now becomes a list of great, profitable, efficient companies that are growing. I also added Forecast P/E ratios for 2026 from MarketScreener.
Company
Ticker
ROIC 23
CAGR 3-yr
P/E 2026
NVIDEA Corp (US)
NVDA
66
54
26
WiseTech
WTC
60
24
60
Pro Medicus
PME
50
30
82
Telix Pharmaceuticals
TLX
35
380
35
Technology One
TNE
30
13
33
Microsoft (US)
MSFT
29
14
26
Alphabet (US)
GOOGL
24
19
18
Supply Network
SNL
24
23
21
Altium Ltd
ALU
23
13
45
REA Group Ltd
REA
20
16
36
The Price/Earnings Filter
The above list represents some profitable, growing companies – but they might be priced too highly. Slack Investor generally doesn’t like to pay for a forecast P/E ratio of over 40 when I’m buying a new growth stock – that means the projected earnings are 40 times the current price of the stock. This reduces the table to 7 stocks. I can reduce the table even further by taking out the 3 US based stocks (MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL) – which I can buy in one trade by purchasing more of the ASX listed NDQ . The Betashares NASDAQ 100 ETF was already on my BUY radar. Have a look at the 1-yr returns on these amazing growth companies in the table below of top NDQ holdings – It is unlikely that this stellar growth will continue … but there is certainly momentum here.
BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (NDQ) top ten holdings – Morningstar
The Final List – this is not advice!
Company
Ticker
ROIC 23
CAGR 3-yr
P/E 2026
Price
Telix Pharmaceuticals
TLX
35
380
35
$15.05
Technology One
TNE
30
13
33
$16.25
Supply Network
SNL
24
23
21
$20.05
REA Group Ltd
REA
20
16
36
$179.64
Betashares NASDAQ 100
NDQ
–
18
27 (2024)
$41.35
As well as BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (NDQ), I will be looking forward to topping up my supplies of Technology One, Supply Network and REA Group and hoping for a bit of a price contraction over the next couple of months. The share price shown in this table is at the end of April 2024.
A newcomer to this list is Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – a relatively new entry to the ASX that develops radiopharmaceuticals for cancer diagnosis and treatment. There is a lot of talk of this companies potential.
“It’s developing into a premier global radiopharmaceutical company … I see this as going on to become the next CSL in Australia.”
A CAGR of 380 is skewed by recent figures – but they definitely are a growth company – but there is risk here! Slack Investor will roll the dice and add a bit of this to his portfolio while it is still around the $15 mark – there is a bit of momentum with this stock – might have to get in soon! He likes that they already have a money-making product and they have a further product pipeline ready to roll out.
(Telix Pharmaceuticals) has demonstrated extraordinary progress by generating over $100 million in revenue in the March 2023 quarter, a remarkable leap from zero, less than twelve months ago.
Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.
A bit of the froth has settled down with the ASX 200 (-2.9%) and the S&P 500 (-4.2%). However, the FTSE 100 (+2.4%) is powering on at the moment. After a while in the doldrums, the FTSE 100 is now reaching record highs with the expectation of some interest rate cuts soon.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
Renesas CEO Hidetoshi Shibata (left) and Altium CEO Aram Mirkazemi (right) firming up the takeover deal – From Business News Australia.
It is with very mixed feelings that Slack investor reports on the likely takeover of Altium (ALU) – one of his major holdings (16.6% of total Portfolio) – by the Japanese Renesas Electronics Corporation.
Renesas will acquire all outstanding shares of Altium for a cash price of A$68.50 per share, representing a total equity value of approximately A$9.1 billion
Although this represents a tidy profit, as I first bought into Altium about 10 years ago when they were trading at $3.30, I will be genuinely sad to stop being a shareholder of this wonderful company. I envisaged holding Altium shares for a very, very, long time!
Slack Investor’s 10-yr journey as an Altium shareholder – Monthly price chart from incrediblecharts.com – click chart for better resolution
Why I originally bought into Altium?
Let’s get this straight, Slack Investor is no stock picking genius. My portion of profitable sold shares is only about 55%. That is, I have made losses on 45% of them – it is not that impressive! – but my overall performance results are good. This is because I follow the Peter Lynch philosophy – where you try to stay in the stocks that are performing well and “weed out” the stocks that are not doing well.
“Some stocks go up 20-30 percent – and they get rid of it and hold onto the dogs. And it’s sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run.”
Peter Lynch – Legendary Investor and Fund Manager. From 1977 until 1990, he ran the Magellan fund where he averaged a 29.2% annual return for those years.
Slack Investor is always on the lookout for growth companies … and Altium poked up its head and looked at me in 2014 from one of the financial sites that I read. The next step is a bit of independent research. My “go to” here is the most excellent Market Screener site. I went through my usual process for buying and checked the Market Screener/Financials tab for a reasonable projected Price/Earnings ratio, an established record of improvement in earnings, and a forecast Return on Equity (ROE) above 15%. Altium stood out here with no debt and a ROE of between 35 and 50. This company was growing!
After my initial purchase, I bought more parcels of ALU over the next two years as the shares continued to grow and their outlook projections were confirmed.
The Altium Story
Altium is an Australian-based software company that provides electronics design software to circuit-board engineers. These circuit boards are in every bit of technology that we own.
By the time Slack Investor had woken up to the Altium story, Aram Mirkazemi was the established CEO of Altium Limited. He came to Australia from Iran as a refugee in the 1980’s after a 6-month stint in a refugee camp in Pakistan. He did not speak English. After gaining qualifications in IT and engineering, he met Nick Martin, the founder of Altium, at a soccer game and Nick offered him a job. After an eventual falling out, Aram left to start his own software company. When Nick steeped down as CEO, Aram returned to Altium with a vision to make Altium a world player in printed circuit board design.
… in order to be able to change the way the electronics industry works you need to be able to standardise on one platform, like the graphics industry did with Photoshop or Microsoft’s dominance of the operating system and productivity tools market.
After several years of growth and gaining market share. The Altium board rejected an offer of $38.50 per share from Autodesk Inc back in June 2021 as they thought that the offer ‘significantly undervalues’ the companies prospects. The 2024 Renesas offer is yet to be approved by shareholders, but it seems that all the significant players are already “on board”. The offer A$68.50 per share in cash. represents a premium of approximately 34% to the pre-offer price.
All I can say is, it has been an honour to be part-owner (shareholder) of this great company – Thank you Aram and his team. I will be selling part of my holding this tax year (to spread the capital gain over two tax years) and wait for the cash offer to come through in 2025 for the remainder.
March 2024 – End of Month Update
More Happy Days in the stock market. As the troubled world marches on, all Slack Investor followed markets rose this month. The ASX 200 up 2.6%, the FTSE 100 up 4.2%, and the S&P 500 up 3.1%,
Slack Investor remains IN for the FTSE 100, the ASX 200, and the US Index S&P 500.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.
Even Superman has his limits – Is it Kryptonite OR Brussell Sprouts?
Slack Investor writes a lot about Superannuation because it is a fantastic component to have in your armoury to establish financial independence – in a tax-effective way.
The ultimate aim for Slack Investor is to fund your own retirement, but in reality, according to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) estimates, a minority (43% ) of Australians of retirement age would be self-funded by 2023 – this percentage should increase as the compulsory superannuation system matures.
Before we get to this mix, by the time you retire, you do want to have a place to live and be free of landlords. This may sound impossible to some at the moment – but it is a vital part of financial independence. It can be a “tiny home”, an apartment, a place in a regional area …. as long as it is yours!
Tiny Homes – This 20 sq m little bewdy will set you back $32 000 – however, you still have to find land for it – and connect to services.
It is so important to aim to own your own home by the time that you retire – even if it is a 1-br apartment. Admittedly, this is so much harder than it used to be! Looking at the figures below, it is vital to get as large a home deposit as you can to reduce your borrow amount – this should be one of your early financial goals. However, without help, a multi-bedroom home near a capital city now seems near impossible.
If you dont have a deposit, October 2023 data showed that Australians need an income of more than $300,000 a year to buy a median priced home. Household incomes required were considerably less, but still “eye watering”, for outer suburbs and regional cities. e.g. Geelong $243,333, Brisbane $223,333. Apartments are usually less expensive – and require less income to service the home loan.
At its most basic level, superannuation is forced retirement savings for all working Australians. A compulsory contribution of 11.5% of your salary (from 1 July 2024) that will compound till your preservation age (between 55 and 60).
According to Treasury projections, about 60% of retirees will have less than $250 000 in super in 2024. This amount of super is not enough to fund a comfortable retirement. $250 000 in pension mode at the official Age 67 drawdown rate of 5% generates only $12 500 income per year. Clearly, many Australians will need to rely on a mix of their super and the aged pension for retirement income. The Aged Pension is available to Australians over 67 – but, it is means tested.
The bare minimum to aim for is the “sweet spot” in the aged pension asset test where your assets are a bit more than the maximum allowed for the full pension. Under current rules (2024), home owning couples can have $451 500 in assets (singles $301 750) and still qualify for the full government aged pension (at age 67).
In 2020, the Alliance for a Fairer Retirement System pointed to a super sweet spot of around $400,000, which can see a pensioner (home-owning) couple “earning $1,000 a month more than a couple with $800,000 in savings.”
The first chart shows 20 different amounts of superannuation that you might have saved up by the time you are ready to retire – ranging from $150 000 to $1 100 000 above chart – from saveoursuper.org.au.
This next chart is far more interesting, it shows your total income from different amounts of superannuation (shown in the above table) mixed with the aged pension – for a home owning couple. For simplicity, these tables assume your only non-home assets are in super and the aged pension rates were those applicable in 2021 ($34 777 per couple). The essence of the table is still valid.
Total amount of retirement income – for a home owning couple – Combination of Part-Aged Pension (orange) and 5% of Superannuation Balance (Blue) for each of the 20 amounts of Superannuation Balance shown in the first chart (Using data for 2020/21)- saveoursuper.org.au
Bizarrely, there is a point on the total retirement-income (couple) table corresponding to around $400 000 in assets/super where an increased assets/super balance does not lead to an increased total income due to the asset test pension taper rate. Above that point, for those on the part-pension/super mix, the more super you have, your total income actually goes down. This strange anomaly exists for assets/super between $400 000 and $800 000 (2021/2020 data).
Clearly, the current assets test to qualify for the aged pension is unfair and provides a disincentive to save -and should be changed. But, until then, a major retirement goal is to use your super to get your total assets to near the sweet spot before you reach age 67.
(It)is not fair that people who forgo consumption and save more to increase their living standards in retirement and reduce their reliance on an Age Pension should instead get less retirement income. This is the perverse outcome for a large range of savings under the 2017 assets test.
How the Assets test works (in real life) for the aged pension (2024 Data)
According to Services Australia, for the aged pension, assets are property or items you or your partner own in full or part – this does not include your home! It does include Financial Investments (Bank accounts, shares, managed funds, annuities, etc), Personal assets (Home contents and vehicles), Superannuation and Real Estate.
I had a recent example of filling in an assets form for a close relative. Her bank statements and investments were easy to quantify. We were advised that personal assets should be valued according to what we could get if we were “keen sellers”. It was suggested to us that, other than vehicles, most peoples personal effects would amount to between $5000 and $10 000. This proved to be near the mark as most furniture and home items end up having to be donated when finalizing a deceased estate.
For the table below, the aged pension and asset limits are current values* and correct at February 2024. Using 2024 data, the “sweet spot” for assets is now near $451 500 for couples ($301 750 for singles). If you had $250 000 in super, and your “other assets” added up $60 000 (Car $13 000, Bank Ac’ts/Shares/Funds $35 000, Home Contents $12 000). Your Total assets would be $310 000.
For a couple with similar “other assets” and a combined super of $400 000, your total assets would be $460 000.
Situation
Asset Limit
Other Assets*
Super
Drawdown from Super@ 5%
Age Pension
Total Income
Single Home-owner
$301 750
$60 000
$250 000
$12 500
$28 514
$41 014
Couple Home-owner (Combined)
$451 500
$60 000
$400 000
$20 000
$42 988
$62 988
Table based on a single home-owner with $310 000 total assets ($60K + $250K) and a couple home-owners with $460 000 total assets ($60K + $400K) – using Feb 2024 values for the Aged Pension and Asset Limits.
Using this mix of super and the pension, when reaching the pension qualifying age , a modest to comfortable retirement is possible under current rules when you own your own home. Also, under the Work Bonus Rules, singles can earn up to $5304 (Couples $9360) in a part-time job without affecting their aged pension.
Comfortable lifestyle (p. a.)
Modest lifestyle (p. a.)
Couple $71,723
Couple $46,620
Single $50981
Single $32,417
ASFA calculated annual retirement requirements for those aged 65-84 (September quarter 2023) for both “comfortable” and “modest” lifestyles
February 2024 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.
Little movement this month for the ASX200 (+0.2%) – but, it is testing new all-time highs. Nothing happening with the FTSE 100 (0.0%) at the moment.
The S&P 500 (+5.2) and the NASDAQ 100 are hitting new record highs and Slack Investor is pleased to go with the momentum but remains nervous for these markets.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
A few times a year, Slack Investor likes to take a snapshot of the markets using the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE) which use ten-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. I first started using CAPE as a “value” tool in September 2021 and, my most recent look was in mid-November 2023. I have decided to do this CAPE market value analysis every 3 months – as I like to keep a feel of where we are – as the market cycles. The next update will be in mid-May 2024.
By plotting this CAPE over a period of time, we can look at how the whole sharemarket is currently valued in terms of historical data – this way we can track the whole share market as it oscillates between overvalued and undervalued.
Using monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the CAPE values. A “fair value” zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average).
ASX 200 Value
Historic CAPE ratios for the ASX 200 – From 1982 to end of January 2024 – Click the chart for better resolution.
FTSE 100 Value
Historic CAPE ratios for the FTSE 100 – From 1982 to end of January 2024– Click the chart for better resolution.
S&P 500 Value
Historic CAPE ratios for the S&P 500 – From 1982 to end of January 2024 – Click the chart for better resolution.
At the end of January 2023, the FTSE 100 (11% below the 40-yr average) is the only followed market “ON SALE”. I love a price reduction!
The ASX 100 (4% above the 40-yr average) is in the “Fair Value” zone. However, the S&P 500 still looks well overvalued at 32% above the 40-yr average – and has just moved above the “Fair Value” zone.
Slack Investor usually just assesses stock market returns at the end of the financial year. However, calendar year 2023 was some ride.
The 2023 ASX 200 Chart
For the 2023 calendar year, the ASX 200 Index started at 7020, and ended up at 7590 – a 12-mth increase of about 8% – but, on the way, it fell to a year low of 6751 – a temporary fall of 3.8%.
Of course, If you did not look at the charts daily, these fluctuations would mean nothing. If you ony looked at the Australian Index at yearly intervals, 2023 would probably bring some joy. As well as the overall 8% gain for the year, when you include dividends, the ASX 200 Index total return for calendar year 2023 was 12.2%. The ASX “All Ordinaries” Index (Tracking Australia’s largest 500 listed companies) had a total return of 13.0%.
Slack Investor will again emphasize the joy of investing and mostly doing nothing – and trying to focus on longer term returns. One of the best summary charts I have seen for a while that shows calendar year returns has just been updated and published by Ashley Owen. Ashley uses the “All Ordinaries” Index rather than the ASX 200 Index- as there is more historical data available for comparison.
Total ASX “All Ordinaries” calendar year returns – with the the last 5 years highlighted – From Ashley Owen – Owen Analytics – (Click to Enlarge)
The first thing that jumps out in this chart is the amount of “Green” positive years vs the “Red” negative years. In 78% of calendar years, ASX Index returns are positive. The overall average total return since 1900 for the Australian “All Ordinaries” Index is 11.7%.
Inflation has been the topic of the day lately and Owen has kindly provided his calendar year chart in terms of Real Returns for the All Ordinaries Index – The total return minus the inflation rate (Consumer Price Index (CPI)). A certain amount of cash is worth holding to for liquidity – so that you can avoid selling stocks in a market downturn. Although cash can iron out some of the stock market fluctuations, being invested in cash is not a protection from inflation.
Total ASX “All Ordinaries” calendar year “Real” (minus inflation) returns – with the the last 5 years highlighted – From Ashley Owen – Owen Analytics – (Click to Enlarge)
Adjusted for cpi increases, the overall average “Real” total return since 1900 for the Australian “All Ordinaries” Index is 7.9%. Slack Investor is willing to put up with the volatility of share markets for an average “after inflation” return like this.
For financial independence and as a hedge against inflation, it is important to own growth assets – such as the Australian Share market. Sure, there will be the occasional negative annual returns ahead … but let’s not worry about this while the Australian stock market is rising. Long-term overall results are the important thing.
January 2024 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.
After a big Christmas Rally, things have settled down a bit with modest gains for the ASX 200 (+1.2%) and the S&P 500(+1.6%). The FTSE 100 had a small fall ( -1.3%)
It was time to adjust the stop loss for the S&P 500 as the current value is over 15% greater than the stop loss. Slack Investor has long believed the US market is overvalued and, while enjoying the journey, is happy to have his stop loss a little tighter. It is difficult to do the adjustment on the monthly chart, so I had a look at the weekly chart for the S&P 500 below. I am looking for a dip in the chart that represents a “Higher low”. The new stop loss now stands at 4682 – only 3% below the current value.
My last post on “Salary Sacrifice” got me thinking on the other things that I did to help myself on the journey towards financial independence. I have before stressed the importance of your savings rate as the primary tool in the box – and, more than anything, this is the number that will affect when you become financially independent.
This figure can be calculated a few ways, but for simplicity, let’s define it as your retirement savings as a percentage of your take-home pay (disposable income after taxes and deductions) – this can be calculated using fortnightly, monthly, or yearly data.You can work out your own savings rate or, if you are in a stable relationship with a combined goal, include your partner’s savings and take-home pay.
SAVINGS RATE (%) = 100 x (Total amount of Savings put aside for Retirement/Take-home Pay)
This savings rate is the percentage of your after tax income that you must be putting towards retirement – and it defines the number of years that you have to work until you can sustainably generate your expenses from your investments. There are some assumptions for the following chart:
This magical curve is presented below to bring a bit of clarity to your goal. The object is to get to the stage when your annual return on investments (Passive income) cover 100% of your expenses. This represents the beautiful state of financial independence.
From The Escape Artist – using the conservative assumption of a 5% return on your retirement portfolio after inflation.
In Australia, with compulsory superannuation, 10% of your gross salary is deducted from your wages. Taxation rates will vary, but lets just say that 10% of your gross salary is the equivalent of about 15% of your net salary (disposable income). You add your superannuation to any other retirement saving that you are doing to get your total amount of savings put aside for retirement.
Starting from scratch, from the above graph, if you worked continuously, and only relied on compulsory superannuation you enter the full-time work force and you are 42.8 years away from a retirement – where your living expenses are covered by the passive income from your retirement savings. In other words, if working continuously, a 22-year old starting full-time work will have enough passive income to cover expenses when reaching the age of 64.8 – relying solely on compulsory super.
In Australia, there is also the aged pension to kick things along after age 67. Obviously, if you want to retire sooner and have a bit extra for holidays, and to allow a bit of a safety margin, and be financially independent – You will have to do some extra savings towards retirement yourself.
How are people going with their savings rate?
For Australians, the compulsory superannuation system provides a sound base for retirement savings (with a working life of 42.8 years). This doesn’t factor in the government funded aged pension – subject to a means test. Currently the pension (September 2023) is $28,514 per year for a single person – But who knows if this will still be available at present levels in the future. It is best to plan for your future without it – and then accept it as a bonus if you qualify.
Although this sounds OK, any disruption to your working life (ill health, family, education, retrenchment, etc) will be a real setback to your retirement plans – Any work breaks will require additional savings for your retirement. In the US, the “average” savings rate was between 5-10% for many years. Despite some impressive savings rates during COVID-19, in July 2023, the personal saving rate in the United States amounted to 4.1 percent.
You would have to say … this does not bode well for a satisfying retirement for the “average” US Citizen.
What was the Slack Investor Savings Rate?
Rusted on followers of this blog will recall that I had a bit of a delayed start to thinking about retirement. I had just arrived back in Australia after a 6-year working holiday overseas. I was aged 30, broke, and the only thing I knew was that I didn’t want to continue working in the field that I was trained in – high school teaching.
Clearly Slack Investor had a bit of work to do. Once I was in regular employment again, I set about getting the financial building blocks in order. Emergency fund, house deposit … and then savings for my retirement. I did this mostly using salary sacrificing into superannuation and building up my own private share portfolio.
There is nothing Slack Investor likes more than burrowing into my financial history using the excellent and free “Sunset” international release of Microsoft Money. I use the Australian Version. I have been using this software to track my finances since 1990 (33 years!)
Including superannuation contributions, my savings rate for retirement fluctuated between 20% and 45%. From the top graph, this represents a shifting rate that was equivalent to an overall retirement goal that required between 36.7 years and 19 years of working. Since “ground zero” at aged 30 and some extra education, I ended up working mostly full time for 28 years. Luckily, I had found a job as meteorologist that I really enjoyed.
This is not the “hard core” road to financial independence (i.e retire at 35, etc) – but Slack Investor thinks a reasonable compromise with the competing priorities of raising a family and buying a house.
Savings Rate is so important. Determine what your own savings rate needs to be to achieve your retirement goals – and automate your savings deductions as much as possible – and get cracking!.
December 2023 – End of Month Update
Happy Days. The year closes and, Slack Investor was definitely not naughty … a big December “Santa Rally” this month. All followed markets rose. The ASX 200 up a mighty 7.1%, the FTSE 100 up 4.0%, and the S&P 500 up 4.4%,
Slack Investor remains IN for the FTSE 100, the ASX 200, and the US Index S&P 500.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index). The quarterly updates to the Slack Portfolio have also been completed.
Usually not much of a country and Western Fan, but Slack Investor is quite taken with this video of Slim Dusty in his rendition of Looking Forward Looking Back – where two Australian Music Legends (Don Walker and Slim Dusty) combine to make this beautiful Australian song. Slim must have been about 73 when this song was recorded in the year 2000.
Making sense of what I’ve seen All the love we’ve had between You and I, along the track Looking forward, looking back
This song is bitter-sweet to me as it was played at a good friend’s funeral … and I always get a little sad .. but then, I think of the good times I shared with my friend. My friend was also a keen investor and, I’m sure he wouldn’t mind me using this song to launch this post. It is a song of reflection … with a reminder to look forward as well.
Slack Five-Year Individual Share Performance
Though Slack Investor reports on his results on a yearly basis, the annual Nuggets and Stinkers post is a constant reminder of how, in successive years, a company can be “a nugget” … or “a stinker”. The market will often go in trends of overvaluation followed by a period of undervaluation – and the true measure of how the stock has performed is lost in these constant tidal changes. For my purposes (Slack!), a 5-yr measure of performance is about right – as this allows for the true performance of a quality stock to shine through.
I trawled through the Slack Portfolio to find stocks that I had owned for 5 years. I was suprised to find that, of my current 22 individual stocks or ETF’s that I own, I had held only 5 of these for 5 years. This is not what I expected from a Slack Investor and I had to drill down into the portfolio to realize that I had given my portfolio a big shake-up about 4-5 years ago. I had retired, injected a large portion of my work super into my SMSF, and also sold a few stocks to make way for a house purchase.
The 5 stocks that I had 5-yr data on were Altium, Macquarie Group. REA Group, CSL and Codan. The 5-yr Internal Rate of Return (IRR) figures give an “average” annual return for the 5-yr period and include dividends as well as any stock price growth. The results below, for the five years up to 30/06/23, are from my financial software – the free “Sunset” international version of Microsoft Money Australian Version. There are IRR calculators and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculators also available online. I have also included the CAGR Total Return (TR) till 30/06/23 for each of the Slack followed markets (in bold) for reference.
Stock
Symbol
5-yr IRR
Altium Ltd
ALU
14.8
Macquarie Group Ltd
MQG
12.7
S&P500 (TR)
12.2
REA Group Ltd
REA
11.3
CSL Ltd
CSL
8.4
ASX200 (TR)
6.3
FTSE100 (TR)
3.8
Codan Ltd
CDA
3.3
Digesting the above table, Slack Investor is generally pleased with the annual IRR over 5 years of the majority of held stocks. The exception is Codan (CDA) which has had a roller coaster ride in the price charts (see below) – and underperformed the ASX 200 index over 5 years. This stock needs further evaluation to see if I should continue to hold it in the Slack Portfolio.
There are strange days Full of change on the way But we’ll be fine, unlike some I’ll be leaning forward, to see what’s coming
I go to Market Screener Financials page for Codan to quickly see that the income for CDA is projected to increase for the next few years and the company is in a solid financial position. The projected Return on Equity (ROE) remains above 15% and, despite the dramatic price fall during 2021/2022 over earnings downgrades, the companies price trend so far in 2023, has been positive. This holding is currently on “watch” – but I remain a holder of CDA for now.
5-yr Price Chart of Codan (CDA) – from Investing.com
November 2023 – End of Month Update
Slack Investor is IN for Australian index shares, the US Index S&P 500 and the FTSE 100.
Due to a strong rebound this month Slack investor has cancelled his SELL Alert for the ASX200 that started at October 31 2023 due to a stop loss breach – and he now remains IN .
All Slack Investor overseas followed markets had a bumper month. The S&P 500 led the way with a massive rise of +8.9 %. More modest rises for the FTSE 100 +1.6% and the Australian stock market – the ASX 200 +4.5%.
All Index pages and charts have been updated to reflect the monthly changes – (ASX Index, UK Index, US Index).
A few times a year, Slack Investor likes to take a snapshot of the markets using the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratios (CAPE) which use ten-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. I first started using CAPE as a “value” tool in September 2021, and my most recent look was in May 2023.
By plotting this CAPE over a period of time, we can look at how the whole sharemarket is currently valued in terms of historical data – this way we can track the whole share market as it oscillates between overvalued and undervalued.
Using monthly CAPE data from Barclays, the 40-yr mean is calculated and plotted together with the CAPE values. A “fair value” zone is created in green where the CAPE is within one standard deviation of the mean (average).
ASX 200 Value
Historic CAPE ratios for the ASX 200 – From 1982 to end of October 2023– Click the chart for better resolution.
FTSE 100 Value
Historic CAPE ratios for the FTSE 100 – From 1982 to end of October 2023– Click the chart for better resolution.
S&P 500 Value
Historic CAPE ratios for the S&P 500 – From 1982 to end of October 2023– Click the chart for better resolution.
At the end of October 2023, both the ASX 100 (8% below the 40-yr average) and the FTSE 100 (15% below the 40-yr average) are “ON SALE”. If I have a choice, I will always look to buy in the sale period.
The S&P 500 still looks a little overvalued at 16% above the 40-yr average – but at least it has slipped back into the “Fair Value” zone.
