You can’t trust a SPIV … but you can trust a SPIVA!

spivA SPIV, in the beautifully old fashioned slang favoured by my mother, is a sharp dresser that makes his living in usually disreputable ways – Arthur Daley take a bow!

…  A SPIVA … well that’s a completely different story!

In a follow up to why index funds are a good start to investing in shares, Slack Investor was combing the press (rather than his hair!) this week and came across this cracking group of financial wonks known as SPIVA that love nothing more than analysing reams of financial data. Slack investor loves a well constructed piece of research that he doesn’t have to do himself – and for 14 years they have been looking at world markets and publishing reports every half year.

There are two main types of funds: Active Funds where the stocks are actively managed according to financial experts – they control the stock selection and timing of the buys and sells  – their expertise does not come cheaply and to piggy back onto their knowledge you have to pay a management fee of usually 1.5 to 4% every year. You can invest in these funds directly by filling out an application form – or you could buy shares on the ASX in a Listed Investment Company (LIC) such as Argo or AFIC.

Passive Funds are constructed in such a way that they passively follow an index. These funds can be mostly automated and are much cheaper to run. They have annual management expenses of usually less than 0.5% per year.

What do the wonks at SPIVA think about the Australian Active vs Passive scene? Their mid-year 2016 report is full of interesting stuff but the killer finding is that nearly 60% of large cap actively managed funds failed to beat the ASX 200 index (passive) in the most recent financial year, with this number rising to nearly 70% over a five-year period.

Things are even  worse for international stocks, SPIVA reports that over 80% of Active international equity fund managers underperformed their benchmark index. This rises to over 90% over a five-year period.

Slack Investor is not against individual active fund managers … some are very good,  … consistently  … Roger Montgomery comes to mind …  but because of the much smaller annual fees that they charge, passive funds seem to have a great edge in most cases … and the data from SPIVA bears this out. There is much more to say on the pros and cons of managed funds … and exchange traded funds vs individual stocks … but this will have to be another post(s).

 

First Investment … Index Funds … Sounds Fun!

stock-exchange-1426332__180OK … the cushion is sorted and we are ready to start on the path to financial independence with our first investment.

However, we are just starting and our first plunge into the share market shouldn’t be with an individual company … this is too risky … exposure to the whole market through an index fund is a good first step.

The main reason for this strategy is that Slack Investor has found that – despite his great prowess as an investor (?) there are many unknowns when it comes to an individual share or stock.

Slack Investor does a great deal of research on a company before he parts with his dollars and, despite being convinced at purchase time that this company will be a great winner, this does not always turn out to be the case.

Slack Investor has been in this investing game for a considerable time and despite this 30-year experience and diligent research his documented win probability for an individual company (Selling the share for more than I bought it) is surprisingly (to an optimist like me!) low.

Slack Investor win probability ... is just over 50%.

This sounds like I don’t know what I am doing … However, bear with me …If you follow Slack Investor and use the enduring wisdom of many successful investors

“Cut your losses short and let your winners run.”  

… You will be well on the road to financial freedom.

This is because individual stocks that you keep in your portfolio (Winners) may increase in price by 5-500% (or more!) but if you limit your losses on losing stocks to around 15% you will end up with a solid investment portfolio. For the record, the Slack Investor portfolio has between 20-30 individual shares/managed funds and, including dividends, has achieved a 5-year average annual Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 14.6% (as at 30/06/16)

If you don’t want to get involved with a stock broker, and you have $5000, then the most excellent Vanguard Funds offer exposure to the whole Australian, US or World markets through their managed funds. For example the Vanguard Index Australian Shares Fund offers exposure to the whole Australian share market for a management fee of 0.75% p.a. with a published 5-year annual average return of 8.7% (after fees)

Or, you could take the plunge and sign up with an Online Broker. Slack Investor uses CommSec. After a bit of paperwork you should then be able to trade on the ASX online and get exposure to the world of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). You will have to pay brokerage for each trade but otherwise, costs are low.

Two such Australian ETF’s are SPDR S&P/ASX 200 (STW) and Vanguard Australian Shares Index Fund (VAS) . They have management costs of 0.19% and 0.15%, respectively, with 5-year average net total returns of 9.98% and 9.32% respectively (31/08/16).

The stock market is a capricious beast and susceptible to whims and world events. Of course, past returns on the stock market are no guarantee of future returns – but, if you put your faith and money into the whole market through an index fund for 3-5 years you will usually be rewarded.

The Trend is Your Friend

“The trend is your friend”

The origins of this trading maxim are a little hazy but scores of successful trading schemes have grown from these roots. The highly successful US trader Ed Seykota is the source of many wise words on trading and he completes this saying with

“ … except at the end where it bends”.

This summarises the simple message of trend trading – but the complexity comes in determining when the trend has started and finished.

HigherHighsThe basis of trend trading is in Dow theory. Charles Dow was one of the pioneers in technical trading and described how a stock price chart can be seen as a succession of peaks and troughs. He defined an uptrend when a chart was showing a series of higher highs and higher lows and a downtrend when a series of lower highs and lower lows were being established. The uptrend breaks when the stock price moves below a previous higher low. Slack Investor makes use of this trend finish signal as an exit for the index trades shown on the ASX Index, UK Index and US Index pages. There is a refinement to this simple strategy and the Slack Investor will exit an index trade only when the closing price is below a stop loss set by a previous higher low. This refinement helps to screen out any short term price lows that might occur during trading.

Ed Seykota has also has stated that

“Trends become more apparent as you step further away from the chart”

These wise words echo the Slack Investor strategy of trading the long term trends – by analysing trends on weekly or monthly charts.