Slack Investor | How to invest successfully without too much effort

Volatility … Its Scarey! … Take a deep Breath!

The range of one year share investment returns over a 10-year period – From Fidelity

In the above data collected by Fidelity, it is sobering to look at the range of returns that a share investor can expect over a one year period. By setting stop losses, you can help protect yourself from the very worst of declines – but even with this protection, there will be some bad investment years. Lets look at the worst investment year for Australian Shares shown above (-40%). Even with stop losses, your portfolio might lose 10-25% due to prices rapidly falling before you can act. This is a major hit on your savings and during the 2008 GFC many experienced losses in their investment and superannuation savings that have turned them off share investment forever. This, in hindsight, has not been the best decision as cash returns have been relatively low and, up till June 2016, median balanced funds have improved 86% since this global financial crisis.

But volatility is not for everyone – You must be able to sleep at night!

This week, Slack Investor just had the shock of one of his stocks dropping in price by 37% on an earnings update. Price swings like this on your hard-earned investment dollars are hard to take and the volatility of the stock market – particularly with individual companies – make share investment a difficult environment for many.

To Slack Investor this is was not great news and though I prefer to make my investment decisions at the end of each month, the price revision has triggered the “not very slack” procedure of a review of this stock. Are the companies earnings still forecast to grow? There is now a daily review of this stock – with a view to sell. The correction may be an over reaction … or just the start of more bad news.

The things that protect me in these moments are diversification and the fact that Slack Investor is a long term investor. There are always at least 20 stocks or managed funds in the Slack Portfolio.

Although at the time of buying, by doing a bit of research on past and future earnings, I am convinced that each individual company will be an enormous contributor to the retirement fund. However, I have been investing long enough to know that things don’t always pan out as forecast … and I have realized that it’s not necessary to get all your investment decisions right … just so long as you get a good portion of them right!

Investing can be tricky at times and during times of market volatility it is useful to take the long view. The 15-year extract above (Shown on a compressed Logarithmic scale)- from Fidelity – indicates what would happen to a $10 000 investment over 30 years in index funds in various markets. For Australian shares the average yearly return is 8.5% over 30 years – but there were some boom times over this time frame. Over a shorter period, Canstar reports a 10-year average return for the Australian Index of 5.5% compared to the, admittedly risk free, cash option of 3.1% over 10 years.

Particularly in these times of low bond and cash yields, if you can accept the volatility of the share market, be willing to live with the occasional investment mistake and have a diverse list of well-managed growing companies in your portfolio – take a deep breath and you will be OK!

2016 November Monthly Update

Slack Investor remains IN for US, UK, and Australian index shares.

There has been US elections, past and upcoming European elections and referendums, uncertainty with OPEC and the oil price … Cripes! Lucky we have the old stock proverb

“The market climbs a wall of worry … and slides down on the slope of hope”

What this means to Slack Investor is that sometimes you have to tune out the noise and rely on the fact that stock markets are a great place for the long term investor. According to Fidelity, over 30 years, average annual returns for Australian shares are 9.5% and for Global shares 7.1%.

In the US, for the world of commerce, there seems to be a feeling of optimism about the upcoming Trump presidency (For me it is a little weird … and alarming, putting those last two words together). I am naturally on alert when markets like the US are at an all time high. However, I have my monthly stop loss to protect me and we soldier on for ASX, US and UK-Index stocks. The UK and US are both well above the 10-month moving average (black line on the monthly charts) and of no immediate concern. The ASX index breached the stop loss early in November but as Slack Investor makes decision on the end of month prices – and they finished well above the stop loss (red line) – no action required. See the ASX, US and UK-Index pages for details.

Lucky!

Luck … there is a lot of luck in the investment process … and a lot of luck involved in life.

To be born in the western world … and to be born in Australia … and to be born a bloke … Slack Investor acknowledges his debt to the luck Gods … and he is grateful! (… further research has revealed that not all feel the same … Ms Slack Investor, for instance, is quite glad she is not a bloke OR an Australian!)

The great Warren Buffet talks about the “Ovarian Lottery”

“It’s 24 hours before your birth, and a genie appears to you. He tells you that you can set the rules for the world you’re about to enter — economic, social, political — the whole enchilada. Sounds great, right? What’s the catch?

Before you enter the world, you will pick one ball from a barrel of 6.8 billion. That ball will determine your gender, race, nationality, natural abilities, and health — whether you are born rich or poor, sick or able-bodied, brilliant or below average, American or Zimbabwean.”

“You’re going to get one ball out of there, and that is the most important thing that’s ever going to happen to you in your life.”

Slack Investor is well aware that defining life in terms of income is a narrow view. However, as a point of comparison, the Global Rich List offers some sobering perspectives.

For example, an Australian on an annual income of $50 000 is in the top 1% of world citizens by income.

And the western world in general offers opportunities for education and reward for effort … but most of all there is an environment where luck can at least enhance outcomes.

There are things that you can do to increase your luck. The golfer Gary Player adopted the aphorism

“The harder I practice, the luckier I get”

This is not against the Slack Investor ethos … there is some practice or research that you must do to become a good investor … however, we like to keep it too a minimum … and, as a rule, always remember to be grateful!

People are happier when they are active

Slack Investor is not averse to parting with the odd dollar for things he values … but increasingly these are becoming experiences rather than things. However, looking at his adventure packed schedule for the week, amongst the usual pastimes like (work, cinema, social gatherings, personal development and grooming (joke!)) I notice that two of the things I am doing are, remarkably, free events.

The first was a concert a Yarrabah indigenous community featuring the incomparable Archie Roach and the second is local university sponsored lecture on ecology by the Stanford Professor Paul Ehrlich.

The first event, at Yarrabah, I have already been to … and it was fantastic! This was my first visit to this local indigenous community. It is a settlement of over 3000 people in an idyllic tropical location – and a place with a few social problems – unemployment, lack of local businesses and a high crime rate, to name a few. However, the concert headlined by Archie Roach and Montaigne plus various local acts was a ripper – and there was a real sense of hope from some of the community leaders (and Archie). It will take some time, but a few of the locals were quite inspiring.

One of the great things about living in Australia is that various levels of government and educational institutions subsidise occasional events – and as an abiding tax-paying citizen I make it my business to attend them if I find them interesting.

Ms Slack Investor reminds me often about the human need for occupation – and filling in your calendar with events is a great thing. As well as (hopefully) being kind and charitable, being busy is a fundamental part of a full life.

Although this blog is mostly about financial stuff, “The golden triangle of happiness” points out that this is just one corner of the triangle of well-being. I will revisit this important triangle in another post.

The Deakin University study points out that Relationships, Financial Control and Sense of Purpose are the three corners to a happy life. As my full time working life is coming to an end, it is this sense of purpose that I will be working on … people are happier when they are active – and filling my calendar with enjoyable events, volunteering, travel – will be all part of it – I hope.

2016 October Monthly Update

Interesting times … Despite the rough month on some of my individual holdings, at the end of October 2016 my index funds strategy remains on hold for each of the ASX, US and UK index positions. Slack Investor remains IN for all index holdings as the end of month prices have not breached their set stop losses … but these are volatile times … stay tuned for next month!

This pre-US election time is bringing on plenty of action in my individual positions though – after a bit of a cruisy period, and being almost 100% invested in stocks, my portfolio is now 12.5% cash … due to selling some holdings that have had some dramatic falls in this jittery ASX market.

I have the feeling that this wild time will not be over till at least the US elections are over.

What is Slack Investors strategy for the coming month? … although the start of November has brought further falls, and the “fear index” is creeping higher on the US Charts. Slack Investor does not want to become a daily trader and respond to the whims of sentiment – However, if the whims become big enough on a monthly basis, action will be taken. He has reviewed all of his individual stock positions and concluded that his remaining holdings are sound companies with good management – and will stay with them … up to a point!

Some of my individual stocks are near their selling prices and I suspect that further selling could occur and my cash position is likely to increase by next month’s monthly report. However, in the meantime, Slack Investor is taking a deep breath and enjoying the lack of decision making until another month. At the end of November, I will be making buy/sell decisions on the monthly data in a rational, but slack, way.

More detail and chart and table updates can be found on the ASX, UK,US index and Portfolio pages.

Not Index Funds Again … This is Boring!

This site spends a bit of time talking about index funds, here and here. As well as the blog, the Slack Investor site hosts pages following the ASX Index, US Index and UK Index. This is because Slack Investor likes, and is invested in, these type of funds. Each page is dedicated to a rules-based method of following these type of funds in a (mostly!) profitable manner … and, in the Slack Investor tradition, a minimal amount of energy needs to be spent on these investments.

The astute reader will peruse my portfolio page and ask the question

Why does Slack Investor keep going on about these funds when only ~4% of his portfolio is invested in them?

The explanation is that Slack Investor started out 100% in Index funds … and, with some experience started trading in individual shares. I currently have a mixture of both. Index funds are a great place to start your journey into share investment.

There are some eloquent arguments against using the broad index funds as an investment tool. Montgomery maintains the theme “why fill the saddlebags with bad companies!” in this article.

However, despite these funds labelled as “dumb investing” by some, Index funds become more popular each year and have some solid support in the investing community. Slack Investor has developed a simple rules-based method for (usually!) profitable trading in index funds that only requires monthly monitoring. At the end of each month, I will look at the monthly chart of each followed index on Incredible Charts and make one of three decisions – buy, sell, or move my stop loss.

The simplicity of this approach is appealing for its slackness!

Details of this method will be eventually posted on the index pages – Not because I’m secretive, … just because I’m a little slack … and I think it will make an interesting future post … but for now, monthly decision points will be posted as soon as they are made.

This “index trading” method is different to how individual companies are traded by Slack Investor. There are greater risks involved in trading just a few individual companies … but the potential rewards are also much greater! One of the few advantages of being in the investment game a long time is having enough capital to have positions in at least 20 companies … this limits “individual company” risk as each company is just a small fraction of my total portfolio.

Slack Investor is currently enjoying the decisions associated with trading individual companies … even though a bit of effort goes into researching the companies – and they require more monitoring (work!). I am rational enough to know that there will be a time where this extra work will lose its appeal … and then I will revert back to index investing … “dumb” perhaps … but hopefully still profitable.

What’s that smell? Is this Spring? … It’s Dividend Season!

There is that smell in the air … Is it love? Winter is breaking … New growth erupting on the stems… and Ah Yes, It is Dividend Season – the Prince of Seasons! That time of the year when the companies that you have invested in reward you for your efforts and present you with a fraction of the results of their toil.

There is no finer season – it occurs twice a year! Each company has worked hard during the financial year trying to increase sales and profits … they have crunched the numbers and made reports and hopefully held their numbers close to their chests ready for a festive occasion where the managers and shareholders gather. There is a triumphant report to the shareholders and final dividends are calculated from a share of the profits and a date is set where the patient shareholders receive a cash gift into their accounts as a reward for supporting the company through this last financial year. Hopefully there is growth in sales and dividend, and prospects for the coming few years are good …

Well, this is how its supposed to happen … and if you have done a bit of homework and assessed the company and industry … and management … and competitors … and economic environment … and heaps of other stuff … OR, you may have just been lucky! … Its how it often happens.

Because Slack Investor is not the most fastidious of researchers (He would much prefer others did the hard work for him!). Sometimes his luck doesn’t run and reporting season brings some bad news and there is a drastic price slide as other investors bale out.

Investors seem very sensitive in dividend season and tend to react strongly when there is a perception of bad things in the air. Particularly stocks that have a lot of good news forward-priced into them (high PE). Triggers such as as when analyst expectations are not met … or profit guidance is revised down … or a product disaster … can reduce share prices by 20 -30% in a matter of hours.

Slack Investor is not watching his stocks hour by hour and has suffered from a few of these corrections. But the beauty of his slack approach is that no decisions need be done on the day … absorb the bad news overnight and ask yourself the question

Given this bad news … Would I still buy the stock at its new price?

If the answer is no, sell at the next opportunity. If the answer is yes, keep an eye on the stock for the next few days … One of two things will happen

The drastic stock price retreat was an over-reaction and value buyers start pouring in and the price returns to its former glory… your slackness has been rewarded.
The bad news filters through to the general community and analyst and brokers change their recommendations to their clients, people continue to sell and the price slides further.

Unfortunately, the second scenario is more common and even though you may think the stock is more of a bargain now … through experience, Slack Investor has known other bad news to follow bad news and it is prudent to sell the stock (perhaps at a loss) – you can’t hold back the tide! If it is a stock that you like … you can always buy it back when sentiment improves.

You can’t trust a SPIV … but you can trust a SPIVA!

A SPIV, in the beautifully old fashioned slang favoured by my mother, is a sharp dresser that makes his living in usually disreputable ways – Arthur Daley take a bow!

… A SPIVA … well that’s a completely different story!

In a follow up to why index funds are a good start to investing in shares, Slack Investor was combing the press (rather than his hair!) this week and came across this cracking group of financial wonks known as SPIVA that love nothing more than analysing reams of financial data. Slack investor loves a well constructed piece of research that he doesn’t have to do himself – and for 14 years they have been looking at world markets and publishing reports every half year.

There are two main types of funds: Active Funds where the stocks are actively managed according to financial experts – they control the stock selection and timing of the buys and sells – their expertise does not come cheaply and to piggy back onto their knowledge you have to pay a management fee of usually 1.5 to 4% every year. You can invest in these funds directly by filling out an application form – or you could buy shares on the ASX in a Listed Investment Company (LIC) such as Argo or AFIC.

Passive Funds are constructed in such a way that they passively follow an index. These funds can be mostly automated and are much cheaper to run. They have annual management expenses of usually less than 0.5% per year.

What do the wonks at SPIVA think about the Australian Active vs Passive scene? Their mid-year 2016 report is full of interesting stuff but the killer finding is that nearly 60% of large cap actively managed funds failed to beat the ASX 200 index (passive) in the most recent financial year, with this number rising to nearly 70% over a five-year period.

Things are even worse for international stocks, SPIVA reports that over 80% of Active international equity fund managers underperformed their benchmark index. This rises to over 90% over a five-year period.

Slack Investor is not against individual active fund managers … some are very good, … consistently … Roger Montgomery comes to mind … but because of the much smaller annual fees that they charge, passive funds seem to have a great edge in most cases … and the data from SPIVA bears this out. There is much more to say on the pros and cons of managed funds … and exchange traded funds vs individual stocks … but this will have to be another post(s).

2016 September Monthly Update

At the end of September 2016, Slack Investor is embracing the slackness of it all and stays IN for all his ASX, US and UK index positions.

The reason for this lack of action is that none of his preset stop losses have been breached and, as the Slack Investor has a natural pre-disposition to be in the market earning dividends from investments, he cools his heels for another month … ahhhh the bliss of it all … decisions can be so fatiguing!

More detail and chart and table updates can be found on the ASX, UK and US index pages.

First Investment … Index Funds … Sounds Fun!

OK … the cushion is sorted and we are ready to start on the path to financial independence with our first investment.

However, we are just starting and our first plunge into the share market shouldn’t be with an individual company … this is too risky … exposure to the whole market through an index fund is a good first step.

The main reason for this strategy is that Slack Investor has found that – despite his great prowess as an investor (?) there are many unknowns when it comes to an individual share or stock.

Slack Investor does a great deal of research on a company before he parts with his dollars and, despite being convinced at purchase time that this company will be a great winner, this does not always turn out to be the case.

Slack Investor has been in this investing game for a considerable time and despite this 30-year experience and diligent research his documented win probability for an individual company (Selling the share for more than I bought it) is surprisingly (to an optimist like me!) low.

Slack Investor win probability ... is just over 50%.

This sounds like I don’t know what I am doing … However, bear with me …If you follow Slack Investor and use the enduring wisdom of many successful investors

“Cut your losses short and let your winners run.”

… You will be well on the road to financial freedom.

This is because individual stocks that you keep in your portfolio (Winners) may increase in price by 5-500% (or more!) but if you limit your losses on losing stocks to around 15% you will end up with a solid investment portfolio. For the record, the Slack Investor portfolio has between 20-30 individual shares/managed funds and, including dividends, has achieved a 5-year average annual Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 14.6% (as at 30/06/16)

If you don’t want to get involved with a stock broker, and you have $5000, then the most excellent Vanguard Funds offer exposure to the whole Australian, US or World markets through their managed funds. For example the Vanguard Index Australian Shares Fund offers exposure to the whole Australian share market for a management fee of 0.75% p.a. with a published 5-year annual average return of 8.7% (after fees)

Or, you could take the plunge and sign up with an Online Broker. Slack Investor uses CommSec. After a bit of paperwork you should then be able to trade on the ASX online and get exposure to the world of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). You will have to pay brokerage for each trade but otherwise, costs are low.

Two such Australian ETF’s are SPDR S&P/ASX 200 (STW) and Vanguard Australian Shares Index Fund (VAS) . They have management costs of 0.19% and 0.15%, respectively, with 5-year average net total returns of 9.98% and 9.32% respectively (31/08/16).

The stock market is a capricious beast and susceptible to whims and world events. Of course, past returns on the stock market are no guarantee of future returns – but, if you put your faith and money into the whole market through an index fund for 3-5 years you will usually be rewarded.