US Index

Slack Investor is IN!

Slack investor has evolved a “soft sell” approach when I gauge that the market is not too overvalued. Even if there is a stop loss breach, I will not sell against the overall trend but monitor my index funds on a weekly basis. However, the US Market has been overvalued for some time – and I will act at the end of the month on a stop loss breach for this market.

Slack Investor has been running his “index-timing” strategy since 2004. Although, till recently, the method has proved to be an improvement on the “buy and hold” strategy, the benefits work out to be a few percent per annum for the Australian and UK index. I am currently under-performing the US Index!

These relatively small gains might have been offset by share dividends if I was using the alternative “buy and hold” strategy. Market timing works well when there are sustained periods of bull and bear markets and the changes between the two are not too rapid. The short transitions and the recent speed of market fluctuations has forced a bit of a rethink on Slack Investor’s timing the markets strategy – and have decided to keep the experiment going till 2024 – then probably go for the more appropriate Slack Investor method of doing nothing and adopting a “buy and hold” technique for index funds.

Monthly chart and Monthly Updates for the S&P 500 (Click on chart for a much better resolution – from Incredible Charts)

DATE	ACTION	S&P500	MONTHLY STOPLOSS	S&P500 CYCLE CHANGE	VALUE OF $10K SLACKINV sinceJUN04	VALUE OF $10K S&P500 sinceJUN04	SLACK INV OUTPERF	SLACK INV OUTPERF (p.a.)
31-Oct-24	LATEST	5705	5119	52.1%	$47,720	$50,044	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Sep-24	ADJUST SL	5762	5119	53.6%	$48,197	$50,544	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Aug-24	LATEST	5648	4953	50.5%	$47,244	$49,544	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Jul-24	ADJUST SL	5522	4953	47.2%	$46,190	$48,439	-4.6%	-0.2%
28-Jun-24	LATEST	5460	4682	45.5%	$45,671	$47,895	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-May-24	LATEST	5222	4682	39.2%	$43,680	$45,807	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Apr-24	LATEST	5035	4682	34.2%	$42,116	$44,167	-4.6%	-0.2%
28-Mar-24	LATEST	5254	4682	40.0%	$43,948	$46,088	-4.6%	-0.2%
29-Feb-24	LATEST	5096	4682	35.8%	$42,626	$44,702	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Jan-24	ADJUST SL	4845	4682	29.1%	$40,527	$42,500	-4.6%	-0.2%
29-Dec-23	LATEST	4769	4048	27.1%	$39,891	$41,833	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Nov-23	LATEST	4567	4048	21.7%	$38,201	$40,061	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Oct-23	LATEST	4193	4048	11.8%	$35,073	$36,781	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Sep-23	LATEST	4288	4048	14.3%	$35,868	$37,614	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Aug-23	LATEST	4507	4048	20.1%	$37,700	$39,535	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Jul-23	LATEST	4588	4048	22.3%	$38,377	$40,246	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Jun-23	ADJUST SL	4450	4048	18.6%	$37,223	$39,035	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-May-23	LATEST	4179	3764	11.4%	$34,956	$36,658	-4.6%	-0.2%
28-Apr-23	LATEST	4169	3764	11.1%	$34,872	$36,570	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Mar-23	LATEST	4109	3764	9.5%	$34,370	$36,044	-4.6%	-0.2%
28-Feb-23	LATEST	3970	3764	5.8%	$33,208	$34,825	-4.6%	-0.2%
31-Jan-23	ADJUST SL	4076	3764	8.6%	$34,094	$35,754	-4.6%	-0.2%
30-Dec-22	LATEST	3839	3491	2.3%	$32,112	$33,675	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Nov-22	LATEST	4080	3491	8.7%	$34,128	$35,789	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Oct-22	LATEST	3871	3491	3.2%	$32,380	$33,956	-4.6%	-0.3%
21-Oct-22	BUY	3752	3491		$29,971	$32,912	-9.0%	-0.7%
14-Oct-22	SELL	3583	3636	-13.2%	$29,971	$31,430	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Sep-22	SELL ALERT	3585	3636	-13.2%	$29,987	$31,447	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Aug-22	LATEST	3955	3636	-4.2%	$33,082	$34,692	-4.6%	-0.3%
29-Jul-22	BUY	4130	3636	0%	$36,779	$36,228	+1.5%	+0.1%
30-Jun-22	LATEST	3785			$36,779	$33,202	+10.8%	+0.6%
31-May-22	LATEST	4132			$36,779	$36,246	+1.5%	+0.1%
29-Apr-22	LATEST	4131			$36,779	$36,237	+1.5%	+0.1%
31-Mar-22	LATEST	4530			$36,779	$39,737	-7.4%	-0.4%
28-Feb-22	LATEST	4373			$36,779	$38,360	-4.1%	-0.2%
21-Jan-22	SELL	4397	4495	55.4%	$36,779	$38,570	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Dec-21	ADJUST SL	4766	4495	68.4%	$39,866	$41,807	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Nov-21	LATEST	4567	4278	61.4%	$38,201	$40,061	-4.6%	-0.3%
29-Oct-21	ADJUST SL	4605	4278	62.7%	$38,519	$40,395	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Sep-21	LATEST	4522	4233	59.8%	$37,825	$39,667	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Aug-21	ADJUST SL	4522	4233	59.8%	$37,825	$39,667	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Jul-21	ADJUST SL	4395	4056	55.3%	$36,763	$38,553	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Jun-21	LATEST	4297	3622	51.8%	$35,943	$37,693	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-May-21	LATEST	4204	3622	48.6%	$35,165	$36,877	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Apr-21	LATEST	4181	3622	47.7%	$34,973	$36,675	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Mar-21	LATEST	3972	3622	40.4%	$33,224	$34,842	-4.6%	-0.3%
26-Feb-21	ADJUST SL	3811	3622	34.7%	$31,878	$33,430	-4.6%	-0.3%
29-Jan-21	LATEST	3714	3209	31.2%	$31,066	$32,579	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Dec-20	LATEST	3756	3209	32.7%	$31,418	$32,947	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Nov-20	LATEST	3621	3209	28.0%	$30,288	$31,763	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Oct-20	LATEST	3269	3209	15.5%	$27,344	$28,675	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Sep-20	Adjust SL	3363	3209	18.8%	$28,130	$29,500	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Aug-20	LATEST	3500	2965	23.7%	$29,276	$30,702	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Jul-20	Adjust SL	3271	2965	15.6%	$27,361	$28,693	-4.6%	-0.3%
30-Jun-20	LATEST	3100	2721	9.5%	$25,930	$27,193	-4.6%	-0.3%
29-May-20	LATEST	3044	2721	7.6%	$25,462	$26,702	-4.6%	-0.3%
01-May-20	BUY	2830	2721		$23,672	$24,825	-4.6%	-0.3%
31-Mar-20	SELL	2584	2855	-7.2%	$23,672	$22,667	4.4%	0.3%
29-Feb-20	LATEST	2954	2855	6.1%	$27,061	$25,912	4.4%	0.3%
31-Jan-20	LATEST	3225	2855	15.8%	$29,544	$28,289	4.4%	0.3%
29-Nov-19	Adjust SL	3140	2855	12.8%	$28,765	$27,544	4.4%	0.3%
30-Aug-19	Adjust SL	2926	2728	5.1%	$26,805	$25,667	4%	0.3%
28-Feb-19	BUY	2784	2681		$25,504	$24,421	4%	0.3%
31-Dec-18	SELL	2506	2557	153.8%	$25,504	$21,982	16%	1.1%
31-Jul-09	BUY	987.5	869		$10,050	$8,662	16%	3.2%
30-Sep-08	SELL	1164	1256	-16.9%	$10,050	$10,211	-2%	-0.4%
30-May-08	BUY	1400	1256		$12,088	$12,281	-2%	-0.4%
31-Jan-08	SELL	1378	1076	20.9%	$12,088	$12,088	0%	0%
30-Jun-04	STARTBUY	1140	1076		$10,000	$10,000

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Below are the legacy charts – for historical record! – when Slack Investor used the SPY.US ETF as a proxy to base his buy/sell decisions on the S&P 500 Index … I have now started using the S&P 500 directly (see above).

From incrediblecharts.com

DATE	ACTION	SPY	~ S&P	MONTHLY	SPY (CYCLE)	VALUE OF 10K	VALUE OF 10K	SLACK INV	SLACK INV
			500	STOPLOSS	GAIN/LOSS	SLACK INV sinceJUN04	INDEX sinceJUN04	OUTPERF	OUTPERF (pa)
30-SEP-17	Adjust SL	251.2		232	154.2%	$27,611	$24,031	15%	1.1%
30-DEC-16	Adjust SL			208
30-Jun-16	Adjust SL			199
31-Aug-14	Adjust SL			182
30-Nov-12	Adjust SL			135
29-Jun-12	Adjust SL			127
31-Aug-11	Adjust SL			110
30-Jul-10	Adjust SL			101
31-Jul-09	BUY	98.81	987	87
30-Sep-08	SELL	115.99	1166		-17.4%	$10,860.73	$11,096	-2%	-0.5%
30-May-08	BUY	140.35	1400	126
31-Jan-08	SELL	137.37	1378		2.8%	$13,142	$13,142	0%	0.0%
30-Nov-07	Adjust SL			141
31-Aug-07	Adjust SL			137
29-Sep-06	BUY	133.58	1335	127
30-Jun-06	Adjust SL			123
31-Oct-05	Adjust SL			117
29-Jul-05	BUY	123.74		114
30-Apr-05	Adjust SL			114
31-Aug-04	Adjust SL			107
30-Jun-04	START BUY	104.53		101		$10,000	$10,000